Charley Advisories

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HurricaneGirl
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Charley has an Eye!!

#1041 Postby HurricaneGirl » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:13 pm

You can clearly see the eye forming on this loop:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
Last edited by HurricaneGirl on Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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stormchazer
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I am know expert.....

#1042 Postby stormchazer » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm

I am know weather expert, but I am wondering if the strengthening Bonnie has caused the High Pressure in the 11am TWD on Bonnie to flatten out some, thus extending it further west and blocking Chaley's poleward motion for the time being. It seems to me that this could reinforce for a short time, the High Pressure Gradient between the two storms. Does that make any sense?
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.
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#1043 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:15 pm

Oh boy we might be under the gun on this one.
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MWatkins
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#1044 Postby MWatkins » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:15 pm

Sure looks like a banding-type eye is starting to develop. Probably a hurricane at 2PM.

MW
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
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BayouVenteux
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#1045 Postby BayouVenteux » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:17 pm

Jevo wrote:On a side note.... If a mysterious dropsonde lands on Fidel Castro's head is it a conspiracy????
Only if it's disguised as a giant Cohiba cigar. :D
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Andrew '92, Katrina '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Ida '21...and countless other lesser landfalling storms whose names have been eclipsed by "The Big Ones".
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Re: I am know expert.....

#1046 Postby corpusbreeze » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:20 pm

stormchazer wrote:I am know weather expert, but I am wondering if the strengthening Bonnie has caused the High Pressure in the 11am TWD on Bonnie to flatten out some, thus extending it further west and blocking Chaley's poleward motion for the time being. It seems to me that this could reinforce for a short time, the High Pressure Gradient between the two storms. Does that make any sense?
Yes I have made this point a few times this morning. I think Bonnie has a great impact on Charleys' movement. If Bonnie strenghtens it will erode the southern part of the trough and allow the high to build west. I dont think Charleys track is so cut and dry as the models and the NHC seem to think.
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ColdFront77

#1047 Postby ColdFront77 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:20 pm

NorthGaWeather wrote:And by the way coldfront is right the Center relocated WSW of the 5 am.

Sure, I'm right... information from the National Hurricane Center at 11 AM (not 5 AM). :)
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Typhoon_Willie
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#1048 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:24 pm

Notice how everything is going southwest to NE in the Gulf as well? And it looks like to me that the trough is digging down a bit further. I could be wrong, but that is what it looks like!
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#1049 Postby HurricaneGirl » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:24 pm

Folks we have a Hurricane!! :eek: :eek:
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#1050 Postby goodlife » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:25 pm

Typhoon_Willie wrote:Notice how everything is going southwest to NE in the Gulf as well? And it looks like to me that the trough is digging down a bit further. I could be wrong, but that is what it looks like!


umm....so what would that mean?
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#1051 Postby NorthGaWeather » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:27 pm

I was just saying it relocated WSW of the 5 am advisory. Also Charley still moving West.
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#1052 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:27 pm

Basically so far it looks like Charley is going to get picked up northward and then turned NE. You can see this SW to NE movement in which Bonnie is in about 2/3 of the way down the Gulf!
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#1053 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:27 pm

Yes the trough is pushing south, but it probably dont even make it as far south as the central gulf, probably eventually stall just off the nothern gulf coast like all the rest have done.
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#1054 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:28 pm

Charlie seemed to draw in dry air nevertheless there is an eye around 16n The rule of thumb is if you see an eye your talking 100mph . True. ?
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#1055 Postby HurricaneGirl » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:30 pm

I would think this storm is now a strong Cat 1
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#1056 Postby goodlife » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:30 pm

well unless charley makes a DRAMATIC northward turn...there is no way in hell he's hitting jamaica!

Somebody tell me I'm right...:)
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#1057 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:32 pm

Jamaica is already feeling the effects from Charley...but it does look like the system will pass to the south of Jamaica!
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eye could be close

#1058 Postby Weatherboy1 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:42 pm

You are right -- the storm looks like it could be very close to developing an eye. Most likely, this is due to low shear, extremely warm water, and now, a slowing in forward speed. My guess is that we may be very close to seeing the start of that turn, and I am starting to get concerned about the potential strength of this system. For now, this is nothing more than an Irene-type storm (1999). I'd like to keep it that way.
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c5Camille

HURRICANE CHARLEY !!!

#1059 Postby c5Camille » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:43 pm

He's a Hurricane...
75mph 993.
WNW 18mph
Last edited by c5Camille on Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:59 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Pebbles
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#1060 Postby Pebbles » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:44 pm

What info you deducting that from..Not that I disagree..just wondering if you heard/saw something I haven't yet :)
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