ATL: IKE Discussion

[dhweather]

southerngale, on another centered slosh model map there is progged to be a peak of 30ft in Jefferson county, just about the biggest surge I've seen sadly.

If that materializes, there's going to be a dramatic change in the ladscape there after Ike. I just hope there are no people there, they are all tucked away high and dry.

[PTPatrick]

I think surge map is only accurate if it takes that track right over the north end of the island. If its even a hair to the south, say on galvestons west end then the surge will be even higher for the populated areas along the west side of Galveston bay.

[Solaris]

Another eye try? Hmm...

[funster]

Looks like a historic surge for the Chambers, Jefferson and Port Arthur area I guess from all the water being pushed by Ike for hundreds of miles into the northwest corner of the GOM.

[PTPatrick]

interesting...northwest is dry again. Also more energy in the bands now than last night.

[hiflyer]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... xico3D.png

Ike is entering shallowing water...next few hours the close to the coast bouy data on wave heights is going to be a good indicator of how bad this may be....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=3

Tides for Galveston, Galveston Channel starting with September 12, 2008.

Day High Tide Height
/Low Time Feet
F 12 High 4:49 AM 1.6
12 Low 9:36 AM 1.4
12 High 1:14 PM 1.5
12 Low 9:11 PM 0.3
Sa 13 High 4:53 AM 1.6
13 Low 9:40 AM 1.3
13 High 2:33 PM 1.5
13 Low 9:47 PM 0.4

[superfly]

Looks terrible right now, doubt that it will strengthen any and will probably weaken once it gets closer to land.

[PhillyWX]

Latest surge maps
[I haven't seen anything since last night... just now checking things. How accurate are those maps supposed to be? I live in Jefferson County.

New item, guess we shall see how accurate they prove to be..

The SLOSH model is generally accurate within plus or minus 20 percent.

In addition, SLOSH data is available from two FTP sites at the current time; namely
primary: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/ and backup: ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge,
which are not hosted at NHC and have magnitudes more capacity than the original NHC
FTP server. It appears once the data is on the NHC web site plus the ftp sites, everyone's
requirement for SLOSH data should be easily fulfilled. .

http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/nhp/slosh_link.shtm

Great links -- thank you.

[Solaris]

Latest recon pass shows 954.5 mb extrap, so up a little from earlier this morning.

IMO the satellite presentation is still improved, wouldn't be surprised to see a 940 handle soon.

Meanwhile, oil plattform 42361 has 99 kts!

[tolakram]

Water is rising in Galveston

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_m ... =Tide+Data



Source:

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/gmap3/

[HURAKAN]

superfly, terrible is the damage it will do. It looks great and maybe poised to intensify.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

[hiflyer]

Last flights out of Hobby Airport south of Houston is around 9am
Regional Jet flying out of IAH on the north side should be over by about Noon
Large jet flying out of IAH should suspend by 2pm

http://www.fly2houston.com/0/1128333/0/1906/

[KWT]

superfly, it looks a little messy now but its still a pretty decent looking system, I doubt its weakening...still it really doesn't make a huge difference overall now, the main story will be the surge and that is set in stone now.

Anyway, tolakram already upto 7ft!
Thats 2 and a half feet higher then the slosh model predicted...

[shah8]

that microwave really sez it all.

[dhweather]

Latest surge maps
[I haven't seen anything since last night... just now checking things. How accurate are those maps supposed to be? I live in Jefferson County.

New item, guess we shall see how accurate they prove to be..

The SLOSH model is generally accurate within plus or minus 20 percent.

In addition, SLOSH data is available from two FTP sites at the current time; namely
primary: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/ and backup: ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge,
which are not hosted at NHC and have magnitudes more capacity than the original NHC
FTP server. It appears once the data is on the NHC web site plus the ftp sites, everyone's
requirement for SLOSH data should be easily fulfilled. .

http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/nhp/slosh_link.shtm

Outstanding data, thank you for the links!


Galveston, Chambers and Jefferson are in grave danger. There's potential for over half of Chambers to be under water.

[drezee]

Wind Speed (WSPD): 99.1 kts =114.3614 mph

Wow that is very impressive...even at height...

[boca]

What's the best tv channel feed in Houston to use for info?

[tolakram]

superfly, it looks a little messy now but its still a pretty decent looking system, I doubt its weakening...still it really doesn't make a huge difference overall now, the main story will be the surge and that is set in stone now.

Anyway, tolakram already upto 7ft!
Thats 2 and a half feet higher then the slosh model predicted...

I read it as 4 1/2 feet above normal, the green line. Not sure if that's right or not.

[AZRainman]

THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IKE IS UNDERGOING ABOUT 15 KT OF NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE...SUGGESTS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST. HOWEVER...IKE IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE SHEAR HAS NOT STOPPED THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING AN INTENSITY OF JUST OVER 100 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IKE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HR. IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HR AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0841.shtml