Florida Weather

[AdamFirst]

Latest GFS run shows freezing temperatures making it as far south as Palm Beach County in the long term (8-day). That Thursday also has chilly highs, with Miami only breaking at 50 degrees. Dewpoints in the teens all the way in the southern peninsula.

In the near future (at 114 hours, Super Bowl Sunday) shows brisk temperatures statewide, with Miami unable to get above 60 degrees.

[northjaxpro]

Although I do feel that we will get rather cold next week, the current GFS runs may be a bit too cold at this time.. I definitely see potential hard freezes in store for my region of North Florida, and freezing temps making it possibly to areas along and just south of the I-4 corridor. But, unless a negative dip, even a slight dip of the NAO occurs, I think getting freezing temps all the way below Lake Okeechobee would be difficult. Not impossible, but difficult. +PNA +NAO pattern is still projected for next week, and I will be watching closely to see if the NAO index goes even slightly negative next week. It will be rather chilly across South Florida next week, make no mistake about that. The next few runs will give us an idea just how cold we will see it get this time next week.

A quick little thing about this Sunday's storm system. I posted about this also in the Deep South Winter Weather Discussion Thread as well. If you follow the GFS, this coastal storm is looking more interesting as we get closer to the event. Latest GFS now indicates that there will be enough of a decent cold air pocket aloft on the back side of the storm, which will be just offshore the NC coast during Super Bowl Sunday, to potentially produce upwards to 3-4 inches of snow over portions of upstate South Carolina and the Eastern portions of North Carolina. The storm also intensifies, and there may be enough wraparound moisture on the backside of this Low Pressure area to possibly give my region another shot at flurries on Sunday, as the GFS shows 534 and 540 partial thickness lines south all the way deep into Northeast Florida during Sunday. If the GFS is right, Sunday promises to be a day much like Saturday, January 23 was around these parts with cold, windy and overcast conditions. Plus the snow flurries we had that day as well. I will be watching this very closely in the coming days.

[northjaxpro]

The updated 0Z GFS for next Thursday, February 11, continues the cold air onslaught well into next week. Arctic cold is shown all across Eastern North America all the way south through the Florida peninsula and into the GOM. This type of pattern definitely for me would suggest some sort of a negative dip (phase) of the NAO. A -NAO or a version of it always brings extreme cold air and locks it in place for an extended period across Eastern North America, with blocking occuring either over Greenland or over extreme Eastern Canada.

If this is the case and the GFS verifies, we may be in for the coldest period by far this winter not only here in Florida, but for all of the Eastern CONUS.

[TheStormExpert]

Here is the latest 06z run of the GFS fresh out showing the freezing line down to the northern side of Lake Okeechobee which is a little further north of the 00z run where it had it into Northern PBC.

GFS Hr. 198



GFS Hr. 204



Also I've noticed since the extremely low in terms of Dew Points 18z run of the GFS that it has backed off on how low the Dew Points go each run possibly hinting at the GFS backing off this crazy cold idea with the current +NAO.

GFS Hr. 198

[NDG]

Meanwhile the Euro shows cold air coming down to FL but nothing close to bitterly cold as the GFS shows, just a quick shot of cold air Monday- Wednesday.
The GFS shows -15 de C at H85 down to north FL and the 0 deg C isotherm down to Broward County while the Euro only shows only down to -8 deg C and the 0 deg C isotherm only down to central FL.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS not backing off one bit...look at this!

There is remarkable run-to-run consistency and the time-frame is closing. Hopefully the GFS is overdoing things. If it verifies, I think it has been many years since Florida has seen temps this cold with a freeze for most of Central Florida.

[SouthFloridian92]

12Z GFS not backing off one bit...look at this!

There is remarkable run-to-run consistency and the time-frame is closing. Hopefully the GFS is overdoing things. If it verifies, I think it has been many years since Florida has seen temps this cold with a freeze for most of Central Florida.

Holy damn! Let's hope that verifies!

[gatorcane]

It's showing a dewpoint of 7F all the way down to Ft. Myers. Wow is all I have to say. Note the normally cold-biased CMC is not as cold so maybe the GFS is smokin the good stuff. lol

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF looks to have gone a little colder and further south with the 850MB freeze line

What this translates to at the surface I don't know since I don't have access to the paid site but I suspect a good part of Central Florida would see freezing temps if this verifies.

[gatorcane]

NWS Tampa has started discussing this potential freeze situation for the first time in today's discussion:

U/L PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHARP TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INDUCING AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND CANADA...WITH A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL PULL CANADIAN AIR
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY. POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH FREEZING
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...BUT BETTER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS ANOTHER SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR MAY ADVECT OVER THE
REGION DUE TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[NDG]

The 12Z ECMWF looks to have gone a little colder and further south with the 850MB freeze line

What this translates to at the surface I don't know since I don't have access to the paid site but I suspect a good part of Central Florida would see freezing temps if this verifies.

http://i.imgur.com/xMdfzuP.png
http://i.imgur.com/8kJ136e.png

Looking at the Euro through the Wunderground website the 12z Euro is actually warmer than last night's run. The 0 deg C isotherm line at H85 is as at the same location as last night's run showed for 06z-12z next Wednesday morning. In fact last night's run showed the H85 -6 deg C isotherm almost all the way down to Daytona Beach but on today's 12z run it brings it down only to the FL/GA border.
12z Euro shows lows next Wednesday morning only in the low 40s across the I-4 corridor, last night's run showed lows in the upper 30s for the same area.
From the Tampa Bay area down along the W coast to SE FL it shows cloud cover because of westerly H85 winds which will be coming off of the GOM picking up moisture off the relatively warmer waters, thus cloud cover will keep these areas warmer at night than northern FL and parts of east central FL.

BTW, the Euro keeps the dewpoints in the 30s & 40s for S FL through Wed of next week, nothing as extreme as the crazy GFS.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS backs off big time!

[AdamFirst]

Still shows a consistently cooler and brisk pattern for the southern tier for the next week or so.
I've made it this far without buying a sweatshirt or hoodie...looks like I'm going to have to get a couple cooler weather things.

[gatorcane]

Yes the GFS really backed off from those frigid temps....

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yep I saw that flip. But models tend to flip flop all the time. I think it flipped a couple of times before GFS brought it back. But like already said the consensus is for cooler to possibly colder for all of next week.

[northjaxpro]

18Z GFS Ensemble 500 mb 138 hour run for 12Z Tuesday morning 2/9/16. Classic +PNA with the strong Omega Block ridge over and across the U.S. West coast and into the Rockies, northward across Western Canada. Extremely impressive and deep upper level trough, with the upper flow straight down from the polar region entrenched across the Eastern CONUS. The coldest pocket of air is being depicted on this run across the Tennessee River Valley down into the Deep South. This potentially could be the coldest outbreak of this winter across the Deep South all the way into portions of the Florida peninsula. GFS continues to be very steady for the past several days showing this cold outbreak. We will see if it turns out right.

[northjaxpro]

NOAA 6-10 day temperature outlook. That is as deep blue/purple as I have seen Florida looked on this map in a very long time. Looks ominous as to how much below normal temps are forecast to be during the next 10 days.

[psyclone]

Best below normal probs all winter. and we're just past the coldest averages of the year so that forecast implies either a very chilly entire period or a big freeze...or perhaps some of each. watching with interest..

[gatorcane]

Yeah the cold is coming for sure next week. Question is was the much warmer (relatively speaking) 18Z GFS run a blip or will it go back to the insanely low dewpoints and Florida freeze scenario it was showing the last several runs prior. The ECMWF looks very cold for sure, CMC still warmer than the GFS (12Z run). That is interesting since the CMC is usually cold-bias

[TheStormExpert]

I honestly just can't see how the GFS's crazy cold idea prior to the 18z run pans out with a positive NAO, despite a trending negative AO and a positive PNA.