ATL: IKE Discussion

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Gustav 5 days out... NHC was right on

That's pretty rare, though. Isn't the average 5 day error something like 300 miles?

not for Gustav... I guarantee it was not 300 miles, probably less than 50 or so..

That's why the current track has me very nervous. Nightmare

Sorry everyone but I'm freaking out scared!!!!

[RL3AO]

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/04/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

It passed 6 of the 7 steps. I'm guessing the fail was on eye size.

I'd love to learn more about this test and what it is...any links?

The annular hurricane index looks at seven parameters. If it passes all seven parameters of an annular hurricane, then its assigned a number between 1 and 100. The higher the number the more annular it is.

Look at page 76 of 122 on this for a little more info.

http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc07/web-61st-IHC-Booklet.pdf

[Frank P]

Gustav 5 days out... NHC was right on

That's pretty rare, though. Isn't the average 5 day error something like 300 miles?

landfall pretty darn close at 5 days out.. not the exact path but end game was the same

[img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml/[img]

sorry couldn't get pix to post...

[gatorcane]

Tampa Bay Hurricane there really is not a need to be scared...for one thing Wxman, a reputable met has entertained the possibility of Ike missing Florida completely...maybe more of a Carolina issue down the road...

[gtalum]

not for Gustav... I guarantee it was not 300 miles, probably less than 50 or so..

I understand they nailed Gustav, and I agree. I'm talking average, though. The average 5 day error is 300 miles, so the fact that they nailed Gustav does not mean they'll also nail Ike at 5 days out.

[Grease Monkey]

http://img371.imageshack.us/img371/3811/ikefx1.jpg

So does the track continue to bend WNW to NW after day 5 or does it continue towards the Keys and into the Gulf?

I believe it's the beginning of a NNW-N turn that may or may not clip the FL peninsula.

Since that's based on the track prior to Ike's intensity updates, wouldn't a more westward track be in place now with this setup?

[SWFLA_CANE]

http://img371.imageshack.us/img371/3811/ikefx1.jpg

So does the track continue to bend WNW to NW after day 5 or does it continue towards the Keys and into the Gulf?

I believe it's the beginning of a NNW-N turn that may or may not clip the FL peninsula.

so a cone shift at the 11PM advisory showing more of a bend away from Florida? That would be great

If you go by what Derek has posted the track should be more west, if you go by wxman57 should turn north.

[gatorcane]

not for Gustav... I guarantee it was not 300 miles, probably less than 50 or so..

I understand they nailed Gustav, and I agree. I'm talking average, though. The average 5 day error is 300 miles, so the fact that they nailed Gustav does not mean they'll also nail Ike at 5 days out.

Hanna 5 day cone went from SW past Cuba to the Carolinas....

perfect example of how it can change..

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like Ike is in action...

Mods - thanx for deleting the message in reference to post I made on Page 1...I appreciate it

now back to the storm....This does look lke this is still going to get stronger, just have to wait see.....Quite awesome to watch for sure!

[gtsmith]

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/04/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

It passed 6 of the 7 steps. I'm guessing the fail was on eye size.

I'd love to learn more about this test and what it is...any links?

The annular hurricane index looks at seven parameters. If it passes all seven parameters of an annular hurricane, then its assigned a number between 1 and 100. The higher the number the more annular it is.

Look at page 76 of 122 on this for a little more info.

http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc07/web-61st-IHC-Booklet.pdf

thanks for that!

[Air Force Met]

Gustav 5 days out... NHC was right on

Well...let's not be revisionist. Exactly 5 days out they were putting it east of NOLA. By day 4 they hit it. Of course...there were a lot of us that hit it. We were breifing our customers (military customers) on a South of Cuba track...over the western tip...to a Terrebonne - Vermillion Parrish landfall when the NHC was moving it over northern Cuba. We were also calling for a low end cat 3 or top end cat 2 along the LA coast after it crossed Cuba as a 4.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

:uarrow:

Tampa Bay Hurricane there really is not a need to be scared...for one thing Wxman, a reputable met has entertained the possibility of Ike missing Florida completely...maybe more of a Carolina issue down the road...

Thanks gator....yes that is true recurve is possible and Carolinas must also watch this (I am not
wishing this on the Carolinas just warning about fickle troughs)

[tracyswfla]

Can someone post recent satellite? Please! Thanks!

[miamijaaz]

It's 5 days out. Anything can change. That being said, some concern is warranted given the existing forecast track. Some concern is good too. It makes people take action to protect themselves and their family. If it recurves, you've lost nothing.

I think the media down here really over does it, but when I think I about it, it's probably better that they over do it rather than ignore the threat.

[gtalum]

Thanks gator....yes that is true recurve is possible and Carolinas must also watch this (I am not
wishing this on the Carolinas just warning about fickle troughs)

It's too early to be panicked at any rate. Now is the time to review your plans and preparations to make sure you can put everything in place in a few days if the need does arise.

[Nimbus]

Just that slight westward wobble was enough to spook me. Could be a sign Ike is pumping up the ridge a little stronger than expected or could mean nothing.

Time to take a break, I'll look at the water vapor image in the morning. By then the ULL west of Hanna should indicate how the ridge to its east will build in.

[Frank P]

not for Gustav... I guarantee it was not 300 miles, probably less than 50 or so..

I understand they nailed Gustav, and I agree. I'm talking average, though. The average 5 day error is 300 miles, so the fact that they nailed Gustav does not mean they'll also nail Ike at 5 days out.

Hanna 5 day cone went from SW past Cuba to the Carolinas....

perfect example of how it can change..

can't disagree, overall I feel the NHC has gotten better with each passing year... but you're are right, sometimes they miss... but I think I would still be worried somewhat if I was in the middle of the 5 day cone... or at least be really serious about my evacuation preps... my opinion...

[Wx_Warrior]

Thank you AFM. They (NHC) did not nail Gustavo Mendoza 5 days out.

[SouthFLTropics]

That's why the current track has me very nervous. Nightmare

Sorry everyone but I'm freaking out scared!!!![/quote]

Tampa, you shouldn't be scared. We have been through this many times before. Be prepared, have a plan, have your supplies, and be ready to act when the time comes. As we all know, as usual, it is a very fluid situation. I have said it before a million times...things can and will change over the next few days. Sit back and relax and enjoy the show for now. If the time comes to put your plan in motion then you do it. Heck, I should be more concerned than you considering I'm sitting on the EC of Florida.

SFT

[wxman57]

I just made a plot of the better consensus models (included GFDL/HWRF/GFS) to demonstrate the trend they're taking. The NHC track is in brown. Note that the consensus is for a rather sharp turn near the Bahamas that the NHC track has yet to indicate. I think that the NHC will just slow the track down overnight and not commit to a turn yet. That's what they typically do when they're not sure.