ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[cycloneye]

That may mean,they are deciding to upgrade to TS skipping TD status.

The members dont see invest 90L at our graphic at the top of forum because its going to be upgraded and the graphic is automated with the latest from atcf best track.

[Gustywind]

Any thoughts on the ECMWF --- keeps showing a recurve run after run including the 00Z

It's ridiculous. This is nearing 40 W and moving close to WSW and increasing speed. And yet it wants to recurve before 60 W? Riiight.[/quote
Interresting reasoning, yeag suspicious drift to the w or wsw is continuing?!. Whereas for us in the island, we do prefer a quick recurve but unhopefully that's not what our eyes are seeing about 90L. Looks like TD at 11AM if this improving trend continues...

[scogor]

Cycloneye, what exactly does "best track" mean?

[Derek Ortt]

I doubt they will call this a storm. Convection is waning. Having some minor SAL issues this morning. They should go away by tomorrow once the trailing wave moves off of the COA and blocks the easterly wind surge

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, what exactly does "best track" mean?

Is where the data of intensity and track is updated every six hours.

[otowntiger]

I was just noticing that it looks as if 90L still struggling to get organized and convection is dying away. Lots of dry air to the north east and it still looks like lots of easterly shear scraping off the top clouds.

[Gustywind]

[cpdaman]

needs some convection........not that impressed......and to be honest and i know people would like to track a fish or so....but with all the ULL's over western atlantic combined with dry air .....i question wether this will become a hurricane

[Emmett_Brown]

I doubt they will call this a storm. Convection is waning. Having some minor SAL issues this morning. They should go away by tomorrow once the trailing wave moves off of the COA and blocks the easterly wind surge

Cool. I remember you talking about the affect trailing waves have in blocking SAL and easterly shear to allow the disturbance in front to develop, sounds like this will be a good example to observe.

[Scorpion]

needs some convection........not that impressed......and to be honest and i know people would like to track a fish or so....but with all the ULL's over western atlantic combined with dry air .....i question wether this will become a hurricane

Yea, looks like its dying. Storm cancel. I guess that's why it's getting upgraded to a TD.

[Shockwave]

I'm not giving up on this system, like many have mentioned the past few days, this system is rather large and will need some time to get itself organized...yes the convection is waning and it is encountering some dry air...but as Derek mentioned, it should all go away by tomorrow and we will see what occurs from there. But the models have been making this a rather potent system and I think we just need more time to watch it unfold.

[Sanibel]

Models have been showing an east-oriented Bermuda High for days but not recurving it. Recurve only makes sense in that scenario.

[lonelymike]

needs some convection........not that impressed......and to be honest and i know people would like to track a fish or so....but with all the ULL's over western atlantic combined with dry air .....i question wether this will become a hurricane

Yea, looks like its dying. Storm cancel. I guess that's why it's getting upgraded to a TD.

[Bocadude85]

I think everyone is looking to much at where the storm makes landfall each model run.. what we should be looking at is trends and the only trend I see so far is a hurricane impacting the NE Caribbean then threatening the Bahamas and Southern Florida.

[Thunder44]

Any thoughts on the ECMWF --- keeps showing a recurve run after run including the 00Z

Well, it be could recurving too early and too far east, on the last run. But it's been consistent on showing a weakeness in the ridge for this storm to begin to recurve, at some point So I think it's a plausible solution. Especailly after 0z GGEM and 6z GFS shifted in that direction.

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL: 90L
20090815.0837.90LINVEST.30kts-1006mb-115N-333W.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &PROD=ssmi

From SSD:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
15/1145 UTC 11.4N 33.5W T2.5/2.5 90L

Increasing Tnumbers...T storm status already

[x-y-no]

I'm betting the 12z GFS shifts back left - we saw that kind of flip/flopping between the 0/12 runs and the 6/18 runs last year.

[Derek Ortt]

Any thoughts on the ECMWF --- keeps showing a recurve run after run including the 00Z

Yeah, the EC has been a mile high pile of cow manure with this storm

[sargeabernathy]

I like to look in this FTP of files for the NOAA ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/aid_public/

They now have the file aal032009.dat.gz up ... which is for a Tropical Cyclone 3.

I think it'll be upgraded! I'm calling it right now!


P.S. You can see the files they have for Tropical Cyclone 1 and 2 right above it. Tropical Cyclone 2 was last modified at the same time as Cyclone 3 ... That would be Ana.

Below these three files are the 10 "Disturbance" files. File for 90 was updated on the same day, but is an hour and a half behind Cyclones 2 and 3. So that means they saw it fit not to update that file, but create one for Tropical Cyclone 3.

[jinftl]

Dr. Lyons on TWC said at 9:50am Tropical Update that satellite estimates show 40 mph winds.