ATL: HERMINE - Models

[tarheelprogrammer]

Trend in the ECMWF. Clearly showing stronger each run.

[Caneman12]

i think the GFS keeps shifting because it doesn't know what to do. I am officially siding with the Euro due to i don't see a slow down and usually models cave towards the Euro when it comes to atmospheric patterns the Euro is showing a strong ridge i think that will come to fruition. I would agree with the Euro on steering but on development of tropical cyclones i usually go with the GFS or JMA. I go with the JMA because usually when it does show something develop it does due to its conservative ideas. i agree with the euro track but the strength i don't know

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS at 8 day has been all over the place with track and intensity. It still points to something being in position in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida. This time of year that is enough to keep us on our toes.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS 18z is slower than the ECM with the Vort Max and further East and just erodes the ridge by 234hrs bringing a trough into the east to carry away 99L. The ECM has a 591dm ridge still in place from the Carolinas to TX at 216hrs.

I'd have to lay more trust toward the ECM at this point as far as keeping a ridge in place.

The ridging as been persistent and strong all season long to this point. I would lean toward the EURO cautiously.

I'm leaning towards the Euro as well, especially when the GFS likes to overdo the intensity of things.

Also there has been such persistent strong ridging/Bermuda High all summer that I can only recall just a handful of days where the afternoon thunderstorm activity has been focused on the East Coast of Florida and not the West Coast or inland.

This is so true...we've been hard pressed to get consistent rainfall here in Port St. Lucie all Summer. We've had a few short periods with very heavy rain but those days have not been very often.

[northjaxpro]

Another point I saw someone posted earlier today was the fact that Savannah, GA has set an all-time record for consecutive days of reaching 90 degrees or more this season. I may be mistaken, but I believe that number is well into the 50s . I think it is 56 consecutive days and still counting.

That is evidence of how strong the Bermuda High has been across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. this season. Indeed it has been persistent and very strong. Many areas have seen one of the hottest summers on record this year.

This is why I am leaning to the EURO about the ridge staying in place. Plus, the GFS has long had a history of overdoing troughs, and I may be wrong, but I think it will be quite a challenge to break down this ridge. We have not seen a breakdown of it all summer long, so at this juncture, why bet against the EURO now?

[gatorcane]

Yeah I would be leaning towards the Euro more as well regarding the ridge. The other thing I am thinking is let's say 99L really does ramp up a lot in the SE/Central Bahamas. Given the size of 99l and the ridge to the north, could this be a case that a stronger and deeper system would actually move more west?

[blp]

Why hasn't the HWRF run since the 06z on 99l?

[PTrackerLA]

I think there's some drought feedback occurring/boosting ridging in the SE. Remember how initial model runs of "the Great nameless tropical low that caused historic LA flooding" pulled it's moisture up north and over the drought areas of northern GA only to actually get shoved westward by strong ridging? Something to keep in mind when considering what the models are trying to do in the long range.

[GeneratorPower]

Not to be negative but the high has been persistent all summer. Maybe it's due to change.

[TheStormExpert]

The ridging as been persistent and strong all season long to this point. I would lean toward the EURO cautiously.

I'm leaning towards the Euro as well, especially when the GFS likes to overdo the intensity of things.

Also there has been such persistent strong ridging/Bermuda High all summer that I can only recall just a handful of days where the afternoon thunderstorm activity has been focused on the East Coast of Florida and not the West Coast or inland.

This is so true...we've been hard pressed to get consistent rainfall here in Port St. Lucie all Summer. We've had a few short periods with very heavy rain but those days have not been very often.

Far less than last summer that's for sure!

[WeatherEmperor]

Lets see what tonights Euro shows. For all we know it goes back to showing little to nothing. Lets wait and see

[TheStormExpert]

00z Model Guidance.





18z GEFS Ensembles.

[Bocadude85]

I will say that the ridge has been very strong this year, we live east of US 1 and have not seen any decent thunderstorms storms in quite sometime.

[blp]

I think Fiona is the big wild card. She needs to exit OTS like the Euro shows in the latest run for 99l to have any chance to consolidate in the Bahamas. Also it will allow the ridge to push harder on the trap and bend it further West.

[p1nheadlarry]

Another point I saw someone posted earlier today was the fact that Savannah, GA has set an all-time record for consecutive days of reaching 90 degrees or more this season. I may be mistaken, but I believe that number is well into the 50s . I think it is 56 consecutive days and still counting.

That is evidence of how strong the Bermuda High has been across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. this season. Indeed it has been persistent and very strong. Many areas have seen one of the hottest summers on record this year.

This is why I am leaning to the EURO about the ridge staying in place. Plus, the GFS has long had a history of overdoing troughs, and I may be wrong, but I think it will be quite a challenge to break down this ridge. We have not seen a breakdown of it all summer long, so at this juncture, why bet against the EURO now?

It has entered the sixties, and the forecast looks to keep that streak going.

[p1nheadlarry]

:uarrow: Yeah I would be leaning towards the Euro more as well regarding the ridge. The other thing I am thinking is let's say 99L really does ramp up a lot in the SE/Central Bahamas. Given the size of 99l and the ridge to the north, could this be a case that a stronger and deeper system would actually move more west?

Maybe if it deepens rapidly the steering isn't as forced from outside influences, let the storm and the earth's rotation carry things on. It could mean either a more northerly track before the high traps it westward. After a few days we'll have a better clue.

[AJC3]

Another point I saw someone posted earlier today was the fact that Savannah, GA has set an all-time record for consecutive days of reaching 90 degrees or more this season. I may be mistaken, but I believe that number is well into the 50s . I think it is 56 consecutive days and still counting.

That is evidence of how strong the Bermuda High has been across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. this season. Indeed it has been persistent and very strong. Many areas have seen one of the hottest summers on record this year.

This is why I am leaning to the EURO about the ridge staying in place. Plus, the GFS has long had a history of overdoing troughs, and I may be wrong, but I think it will be quite a challenge to break down this ridge. We have not seen a breakdown of it all summer long, so at this juncture, why bet against the EURO now?

Earlier this month, both Melbourne and Daytona Beach, along the east coast of Florida, set their respective records for consecutive days with high temperatures at or above 90 degrees. These records now stand at 59 (MLB) and 55 (DAB), and are still going as of today, 8/21

 https://twitter.com/NWSMelbourne/status/767479328149868544

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/Wx_Geek/status/767514028113596416

[GeneratorPower]

 https://twitter.com/Wx_Geek/status/767514028113596416

That storm would likely be called Fiona.

[SouthFLTropics]

 https://twitter.com/Wx_Geek/status/767514028113596416

Well that's something you don't see every day...