2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[tolakram]

Can we start a thread for this area / unlock the one that was opened a few days ago since it's actually emerged off Africa now?

We are sticking to the 'no model storm threads' for the time being. If it shows signs of development or the NHC tags it then the thread will be open for certain.

[Alyono]

Can we start a thread for this area / unlock the one that was opened a few days ago since it's actually emerged off Africa now?

We are sticking to the 'no model storm threads' for the time being. If it shows signs of development or the NHC tags it then the thread will be open for certain.

I can say private industry has already tagged this system with development chances

[cycloneye]

We stay here for now.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF with a TS off Africa in just 48 hours...

[AutoPenalti]

We are being held hostage lol

[tarheelprogrammer]

GEFS has been hinting at changing conditions. It may be that the "on switch" is about to turn on. I am still skeptical till I see it with my own eyes.

[RL3AO]

GEFS has been hinting at changing conditions. It may be that the "on switch" is about to turn on. I am still skeptical till I see it with my own eyes.

2nd and 3rd week of August. Many of us have been saying it since July 20th.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GEFS has been hinting at changing conditions. It may be that the "on switch" is about to turn on. I am still skeptical till I see it with my own eyes.

2nd and 3rd week of August. Many of us have been saying it since July 20th.

The switch still needs to be flipped on though. We shall see if it does. Just as the models were showing nothing to now something, they can easily go back to nothing

[cycloneye]

1007 mbs at 72 hours.

[Ivanhater]

12z euro jumping on board through 96 hours

[gatorcane]

strengthening at 96 hours. CMC also develops this but a little later.

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z euro jumping on board through 96 hours

Also, has energy approaching the G.O.M. from the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

slowly gaining strength day 5 heading generally W or a little north of West.

[Ivanhater]

12z euro jumping on board through 96 hours

Also, has energy approaching the G.O.M. from the Caribbean.

Euro certainly coming alive in the Atlantic basin

[RL3AO]

The switch still needs to be flipped on though. We shall see if it does. Just as the models were showing nothing to now something, they can easily go back to nothing

Sure, but I'd argue that the unfavorable Caribbean modeled for next week doesn't really make sense considering the large scale pattern. I'm not surprised to see the models trending towards less shear there next week. I'd be much more surprised to see them trend back towards unfavorable.

[BobHarlem]

Euro shows something popping up by the Yucatan also.

[Alyono]

The switch still needs to be flipped on though. We shall see if it does. Just as the models were showing nothing to now something, they can easily go back to nothing

Sure, but I'd argue that the unfavorable Caribbean modeled for next week doesn't really make sense considering the large scale pattern. I'm not surprised to see the models trending towards less shear there next week. I'd be much more surprised to see them trend back towards unfavorable.

The unfavorable Caribbean may make sense, if we get development in the SW Gulf. Get a large ridge over that system, the Caribbean is then under a large trough

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF @ 168 hrs showing a 1003mb TS in the BoC, and a 1007mb Tropical Storm near the islands.

[RL3AO]

12z ECMWF @ 168 hrs showing a 1003mb TS in the BoC, and a 1007mb Tropical Storm near the islands.

Sounds like two more name wasters to me.

[Hurricaneman]

I see the Caribbean being quite favorable if the BOC system stays farther south and doesn't develop