Texas Spring 2018

[Haris]

The Euor EPS is wetter than the GEFS over the next two weeks. There is pretty good agreement between the two that the MJO will move through P1 and P2 over the next two weeks and that is a wet phase for Texas in May. Also, Global AAM looks to transition to a setup favorable for svr wx across the Southern Plains. As Ntwx said, enjoy this week to get out to get the fence stained and to the pool b/c next week is starting to look pretty wet.

12z gefs trended a lot wetter too! hmm. fingers crossed

[TheProfessor]

Just casually looking at some of the Euro ensembles like I did this past winter.There's a quite a few not so good ones rain wise, but #10 and #19 would cause some problems. Especially #10 23 would be another problematic one, especially if the rain axis was shifted north a bit. #37 is a great one for everyone south and east of the Metroplex. 42 is another good one that cuts off in the eastern parts of the metro. 27,43, and 49 are kind of spread the wealth storms. Don't look at #45 if you're in the Metroplex

[Lagreeneyes03]

Just casually looking at some of the Euro ensembles like I did this past winter.There's a quite a few not so good ones rain wise, but #10 and #19 would cause some problems. Especially #10 23 would be another problematic one, especially if the rain axis was shifted north a bit. #37 is a great one for everyone south and east of the Metroplex. 42 is another good one that cuts off in the eastern parts of the metro. 27,43, and 49 are kind of spread the wealth storms. Don't look at #45 if you're in the Metroplex

Show me 45!

[TheProfessor]

Just casually looking at some of the Euro ensembles like I did this past winter.There's a quite a few not so good ones rain wise, but #10 and #19 would cause some problems. Especially #10 23 would be another problematic one, especially if the rain axis was shifted north a bit. #37 is a great one for everyone south and east of the Metroplex. 42 is another good one that cuts off in the eastern parts of the metro. 27,43, and 49 are kind of spread the wealth storms. Don't look at #45 if you're in the Metroplex

Show me 45!

Here you go
A couple of more inches falls after that on that ensemble member.

[weatherdude1108]

And..., we have a CAT 5 in the Gulf.

[Brent]

And..., we have a CAT 5 in the Gulf.

Getting an early start this year I see

[weatherdude1108]

And..., we have a CAT 5 in the Gulf.

Getting an early start this year I see

I know, right?lol

[Haris]

And..., we have a CAT 5 in the Gulf.

Getting an early start this year I see

I know, right?lol

Heard quite a few today (mets) react to the gfs . The pattern is favorable for home grown systems somewhat and wouldn’t surprise them if a weak wave develops

[Haris]

Wetter weather pattern coming potentially next week !

[JDawg512]

Wetter weather pattern coming potentially next week !

I sure hope so. Reading this afternoon's EWX forecast discussion has made me nervous. I hate it when the models split like that. The sad thing is this year's history tends to favor the dry outcome but I'll give it some more time before I throw my hands up in dispare.

[wxman57]

First 90+ of the year yesterday in Houston (91). Felt great. Plenty more to come through next winter.,,

[Tireman4]

First 90+ of the year yesterday in Houston (91). Felt great. Plenty more to come through next winter.,,

Sigh

[Yukon Cornelius]

First 90+ of the year yesterday in Houston (91). Felt great. Plenty more to come through next winter.,,

Last night on the weather they were talking about how Childress, Quanah and other surrounding towns could possibly hit 100 today.

[Haris]

You know it’s terrible when ensembles give you a 1/10” of rain through the 24th !!!

[TheProfessor]

Um yeah, I'm not liking the last few GFS runs. Not just because of the lack of rain, but also my family is going to Jamaica on the 19th and some of these runs have a tropical system moving near there and dropping 10+ inches of rain. The good thing is that it's really far out on the GFS... the bad thing is that my family seems to be unlucky on vacations and storms like to cause rain where we're at. It rained the first 2 days when my family was in Aruba in 2010, they got almost as much rain they saw in a year(not a lot) lol.

[weatherdude1108]

What a shocker. Models have backed off on cold front for next Monday/Tuesday.

That two inches of rain I got is evaporating by the hour in this weather.



082
FXUS64 KEWX 081933
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
233 PM CDT Tue May 8 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Dry weather continues across the area once again this afternoon.
Temperatures are in the middle 80s to lower 90s with just some
passing high clouds overhead. Humidity values are in the 19-25
percent range west of a Rocksprings to Carrizo Springs line. In
addition, southeast winds are in the 15 to 25 mph range and this is
likely leading to elevated fire weather conditions for this area.
Conditions will improve around sunset as humidity values begin to
increase. Lows tonight will bottom out in the 60s for most locations.
This is a few degrees warmer than last night as dewpoints slowly
increase with the return of southerly flow. There could also be some
patchy fog for the southeastern counties in the morning as is progged
by several short-term models. For tomorrow, highs will top out in the
upper 80s to lower 90s once again. In addition to continued high
clouds, there could be so afternoon cumulus, but overall the weather
is expected to remain dry. Lows Wednesday night will bottom out in
the lower to upper 60s, or another 2-3 degree increase from the
previous night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The beginning of the long-term forecast should be controlled by the
effects of upper-level high pressure centered to our west. A tight
pressure gradient will ensure continued breezy southerly winds in the
10 to 20 mph range. Upper level ridging will continue to keep the
forecast dry through Saturday and will just show partly cloudy skies
with highs in the upper 80s to middle 90s. Not many changes are
expected on Sunday, but there could be an isolated shower or storm in
the Coastal Plains in what should be a May seabreeze type set up.
Models have completely backed off the Sunday/Monday cold front. The
GFS/ECMWF both show a weak disturbance moving through the area Monday
night and into Tuesday and will show a 20/30 PoP for now to see if
this feature remains consistent in the output over the next few days.

[Haris]

What a shocker. Models have backed off on cold front for next Monday/Tuesday.

That two inches of rain I got is evaporating by the hour in this weather.



082
FXUS64 KEWX 081933
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
233 PM CDT Tue May 8 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Dry weather continues across the area once again this afternoon.
Temperatures are in the middle 80s to lower 90s with just some
passing high clouds overhead. Humidity values are in the 19-25
percent range west of a Rocksprings to Carrizo Springs line. In
addition, southeast winds are in the 15 to 25 mph range and this is
likely leading to elevated fire weather conditions for this area.
Conditions will improve around sunset as humidity values begin to
increase. Lows tonight will bottom out in the 60s for most locations.
This is a few degrees warmer than last night as dewpoints slowly
increase with the return of southerly flow. There could also be some
patchy fog for the southeastern counties in the morning as is progged
by several short-term models. For tomorrow, highs will top out in the
upper 80s to lower 90s once again. In addition to continued high
clouds, there could be so afternoon cumulus, but overall the weather
is expected to remain dry. Lows Wednesday night will bottom out in
the lower to upper 60s, or another 2-3 degree increase from the
previous night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The beginning of the long-term forecast should be controlled by the
effects of upper-level high pressure centered to our west. A tight
pressure gradient will ensure continued breezy southerly winds in the
10 to 20 mph range. Upper level ridging will continue to keep the
forecast dry through Saturday and will just show partly cloudy skies
with highs in the upper 80s to middle 90s. Not many changes are
expected on Sunday, but there could be an isolated shower or storm in
the Coastal Plains in what should be a May seabreeze type set up.
Models have completely backed off the Sunday/Monday cold front. The
GFS/ECMWF both show a weak disturbance moving through the area Monday
night and into Tuesday and will show a 20/30 PoP for now to see if
this feature remains consistent in the output over the next few days.

Welcome to summer ! No rain for another week to 2 easily ! Mid 90d this weekend and a row of them through the end of the next week for Austin

[bubba hotep]

The 12z Euro was ugly! But the EPS still looks good for N. Texas, so maybe this is one of those cases of the Euro holding too much energy back and not being progressive enough with the energy coming out of the SW.

[Brent]

What happened to all the rain next week

[weatherdude1108]

What happened to all the rain next week

That's what I'm wondering(??). (POOOOF)