ATL: ETA - Models

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF goes EPAC. I sense the models are underestimating the ridge like they have done all season.

[Gums]

Salute!

Do not rule out a November GoM storm yet. Look at 1985 Kate.

We had just settled down after a move and here comes a storm!

Gums sends...

[toad strangler]

18z HWRF goes EPAC. I sense the models are underestimating the ridge like they have done all season.

I dunno man, the HWRF needs a cohesive system to shine IMO. meh

[TheStormExpert]

18z HWRF goes EPAC. I sense the models are underestimating the ridge like they have done all season.

If that’s the case then the UKMET may have been right all along.

[Ken711]

18z HWRF goes EPAC. I sense the models are underestimating the ridge like they have done all season.

You mean a ridge to the west forcing Eta north and NE as the NHC forecasts it to track?

[ElectricStorm]

18z HWRF goes EPAC. I sense the models are underestimating the ridge like they have done all season.

HWRF isn't really that good of a track model. I'd go with the NHC at this point

[TheStormExpert]

18z HWRF goes EPAC. I sense the models are underestimating the ridge like they have done all season.

I dunno man, the HWRF needs a cohesive system to shine IMO. meh

Agreed. Hurricane models are only good if there’s a well developed LLC. And it looks like Eta lacks that now. Looks like all that’s left is the MLC unless I’m blind.

[Spacecoast]

Anyone have the current position?
To my untrained eye, (it seems to be getting close to the EPAC), looking at satellite.
I'll be watching for that circulation to jump into the Gulf of Honduras, as predicted.
I've circled where maybe the current (old?) circulation may be...

[SFLcane]

Consensus is east of nhc now.

[VortexFl]

18z HWRF goes EPAC. I sense the models are underestimating the ridge like they have done all season.

I've noticed while HWRF does well with overall Synoptics it does like to throw in an outlier run now and again before correcting. My guess is the overnight run(00z) will come back in line with the majority...

[Spacecoast]

18z HWRF goes EPAC. I sense the models are underestimating the ridge like they have done all season.

I dunno man, the HWRF needs a cohesive system to shine IMO. meh

Agreed. Hurricane models are only good if there’s a well developed LLC. And it looks like Eta lacks that now. Looks like all that’s left is the MLC unless I’m blind.

Actually, HWRF seems to split eta into two pieces. One going to EPAC, and another appears as a weak low in West Cuba @ hr 72

[VortexFl]

Consensus is east of nhc now.

https://i.postimg.cc/76RC2VvJ/921-B7103-E70-D-4-C7-B-9532-909166-E9521-E.jpg

Probably a slight shift east on the 11pm advisory on days 4 and 5 based on latest TVCN..

[Nimbus]

Ignore that convectionless MLC rolling off into the Pacific?
There is some shear lift off Belize but I don't even see any LLC headed back north off the coast of Honduras.
Is this a test?

[Nuno]

Consensus is east of nhc now.

https://i.postimg.cc/76RC2VvJ/921-B7103-E70-D-4-C7-B-9532-909166-E9521-E.jpg

Can't really recall any late season storm taking such a strange approach to Florida.

[Blown Away]

Consensus is east of nhc now.

https://i.postimg.cc/76RC2VvJ/921-B7103-E70-D-4-C7-B-9532-909166-E9521-E.jpg

Probably a slight shift east on the 11pm advisory on days 4 and 5 based on latest TVCN..

Not to sure now, the 18z GFS made it to the Keys then back SW all the way to Mexico. 18z HWRF latched on to a piece of Eta’s energy and moved to EPAC. NHC usually doesn’t react abruptly, but 00z models will be interesting to see if a new trend is starting.

[ElectricStorm]

Consensus is east of nhc now.

https://i.postimg.cc/76RC2VvJ/921-B7103-E70-D-4-C7-B-9532-909166-E9521-E.jpg

Probably a slight shift east on the 11pm advisory on days 4 and 5 based on latest TVCN..

Not to sure now, the 18z GFS made it to the Keys then back SW all the way to Mexico. 18z HWRF latched on to a piece of Eta’s energy and moved to EPAC. NHC usually doesn’t react abruptly, but 00z models will be interesting to see if a new trend is starting.

I certainly wouldn't call one run of the Happy hour GFS and 1 run of the HWRF, an intensity model, not a track model, the start of a trend...

[Blown Away]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

00z Guidance... Talk about a collapse from 18z... Maybe Eta after CA wasn’t meant to be???

[SFLcane]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/29L_tracks_latest.png

00z Guidance... Talk about a collapse from 18z... Maybe Eta after CA wasn’t meant to be???

What in the world? Na something is not right there

[SFLcane]

Gfs and the 18z euro still develop this and take it towards Florida. Not sure what took place on the 00z guidance

[Cat5James]

Gfs and the 18z euro still develop this and take it towards Florida. Not sure what took place on the 00z guidance

HMON as well... only model I saw drop it was the HWRF... what are we missing?