2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chaser1]

Looks like at 216 hours on the Euro ridge is starting to fill back in…

The mid-to-upper-air pattern on the run still favours OTS, given high-latitude blocking and progressive shortwaves pirouetting. The TC turns at the very end.

If that set-up were static then yes out to sea would be a reasonable conclusion. On the other hand, one could make the case for that CONUS ridge expanding eastward and being bridged by the westward building W Atlantic mid level heights. I'm pretty sure that neither one of us are that adept at forecasting those subtleties 10 days + out. Even at a 7 day range I feel safer deferring to overall recent pattern persistence then model forecast reliability. Given the broadly stubborn ridging over the Canadian maritimes extending south over the Eastern Seaboard into the W Atlantic, I'd guess this system could pose a potential risk to the Carolina's.

[jlauderdal]

There’s just nothing to keep this potential system from continuing past 50w. Can it change sure but euro has been
Persistent.

Wide open escape route

[Teban54]

Feels like the discussions now are essentially the same as early discussions on the wave that became Irma.

And really, it seems that in recent years there have been too many cases of people calling for a storm to go OTS (even writing long paragraphs on that), only for their predictions to be completely wrong. This happened to at least Irma, Florence, Laura, Fred, and Grace (which ended up in Mexico lol). The opposite happens a lot less frequently in recent years: I can only recall Teddy, and possibly Dorian (which wasn't a true OTS either).

Not saying this won't go OTS, but this is not a time to say that's the only outcome.

[aspen]

It’s not every day you see the Euro blow something up into a major, especially in the Atlantic. This looks to be a close call recurve, between Jose and Teddy.

[emeraldislenc]

To be honest this is one reason I do not use storm 2 k like I use too. So many people say OTS or dry air or talk about the " shredder" with every storm. The site is not just as interesting to me like it used to be. Maybe I am being to honest.

[Spacecoast]

[tolakram]

To be honest this is one reason I do not use storm 2 k like I use too. So many people say OTS or dry air or talk about the " shredder" with every storm. The site is not just as interesting to me like it used to be. Maybe I am being to honest.

Honesty is good, but intolerance to other opinions is not. The only solution is for us to ban everyone that annoys you. If you have a problem with a post then report it, especially if you think it violates S2K rules, otherwise I can't really suggest any improvements.

[SFLcane]

Invisible wall at 50w this season it appears. Good news for the islands if things to change.

[aspen]

Invisible wall at 50w this season it appears. Good news for the islands if things to change.

Looks like a trough coming off of the east coast breaks down the western part of the ridge and gives the 8/30 wave an escape route.

I agree that some kind of recurve is probable, but it’s too early to tell where it’ll try to recurve. Could be 40W and be completely harmless, could be 60-65W and give the islands a huge scare like Jose.

[Stormybajan]

Anyone ready for 99L 2.0?
EDIT: This peaks at 942 mb closing in on landfall...thankfully this is totally in fanatasy land

[toad strangler]

Invisible wall at 50w this season it appears. Good news for the islands if things to change.

Time to pack it in?

[Hammy]

Feels like the discussions now are essentially the same as early discussions on the wave that became Irma.

And really, it seems that in recent years there have been too many cases of people calling for a storm to go OTS (even writing long paragraphs on that), only for their predictions to be completely wrong. This happened to at least Irma, Florence, Laura, Fred, and Grace (which ended up in Mexico lol). The opposite happens a lot less frequently in recent years: I can only recall Teddy, and possibly Dorian (which wasn't a true OTS either).

Not saying this won't go OTS, but this is not a time to say that's the only outcome.

I have to agree with this, I've seen too many times when watching winter weather that the models seem to overdo the strength of the troughs. Too often both with during winter and summer alike, they end up weaker and farther north or west as the timeframe gets closer.

[SFLcane]

Invisible wall at 50w this season it appears. Good news for the islands if things to change.

Time to pack it in?

October should be fun.

[jlauderdal]

To be honest this is one reason I do not use storm 2 k like I use too. So many people say OTS or dry air or talk about the " shredder" with every storm. The site is not just as interesting to me like it used to be. Maybe I am being to honest.

Its a discussion board...we discuss various scenarios...always refer to the nhc for the best track forecast

[chaser1]

To be honest this is one reason I do not use storm 2 k like I use too. So many people say OTS or dry air or talk about the " shredder" with every storm. The site is not just as interesting to me like it used to be. Maybe I am being to honest.

Its a discussion board...we discuss various scenarios...always refer to the nhc for the best track forecast

However......... because this IS a discussion board, one need always "consider the source" as well. Any bobble-head can blurt out an opinion. If you take the time, you'll come to recognize some posters here to be less flippant and a bit more grounded in their analysis.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has another gulf storm behind 99L. It's also picking up on some MDR storms

[psyclone]

To be honest this is one reason I do not use storm 2 k like I use too. So many people say OTS or dry air or talk about the " shredder" with every storm. The site is not just as interesting to me like it used to be. Maybe I am being to honest.

You should participate more and influence the trajectory of the discourse. It is fair to say we've had a good bit of shredder talk thus far but that's because we've had lots of shredder interactions. Now that we're in peak season things are going to be more interesting than ever....especially when you live in a region as hurricane prone as yours. All the best up your way this year

[Shell Mound]

Feels like the discussions now are essentially the same as early discussions on the wave that became Irma.

And really, it seems that in recent years there have been too many cases of people calling for a storm to go OTS (even writing long paragraphs on that), only for their predictions to be completely wrong. This happened to at least Irma, Florence, Laura, Fred, and Grace (which ended up in Mexico lol). The opposite happens a lot less frequently in recent years: I can only recall Teddy, and possibly Dorian (which wasn't a true OTS either).

Not saying this won't go OTS, but this is not a time to say that's the only outcome.

The difference is that this time the major global models concur unusually strongly that the upcoming pattern will favour weak subtropical ridging and frequent troughs. Moreover, the major suites, especially the EPS, have been very persistent in highlighting high-latitude blocking and weaknesses underneath. The EPS is normally conservative, yet it has consistently suggested a potent system forming close to West Africa. Taken together, the evidence strongly suggests that the potential system would curve OTS quickly, with any ridging proving to ephemeral and/or thin, which would be insufficient to deflect a strong system westward at any point, much less for a sustained period of time. So far I suspect that anything that develops will curve east of the Islands and Bermuda. Models would need to show a drastically different high-latitude situation in order for the outcome to change.

[SouthFLTropics]

Don’t speak too soon. Late in this GFS run it looks like the ridge may build back in. Of course this is out in lala land but I don’t think an OTS track is guaranteed with anything just yet.


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[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1430755759147700224




Unfortunately we might be looking at round 2