ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[lajga]

I think this will get to over 200 mph strength before an eye wall replacement starts likely Some tine in the next 3 days. That would mean even higher wind gust field. Lee looks to be the hurricane of the likes the Atlantic has never seen before. I really hope it remains off US shores. I live in Charleston, SC and remember Hugo wasn't suppose to come in. But last minute, it came straight in. Hugo had massive number of tornadoes in it too. People prayed that night. The sound was hours of freight trains. When the eye came over, all calm and trees laying down in one direction. After the eye wall passed, nightmare started all over again. Next day, all the trees were laying the opposite direction.This storm looks to be the storm of the century and hoping it does not come near any land. Will take a while for it to dissipate. Not good. I really hope they are correct on this far out modeling it to curve away.

[IsabelaWeather]

I wonder how big the ocean swell waves will be with this, does anyone have any idea? I havent seen any forecasts yet, I would expect a High Surf Warning and Coastal Flood warnings for NPR, right?

[Hurricane2022]

What makes this even more historic is where Lee did this in the atlantic basin this far out.

Hugo at 918 mb at longitude 56, in a very similar location in 1989--dropped from 990 mb the day before==VHS frame grabs below

[url][/url] https://i.imgur.com/uhucfV2.jpg
[url][/url] https://i.imgur.com/N3PfdvP.jpg

4K

[CrazyC83]

What makes this even more historic is where Lee did this in the atlantic basin this far out.

Hugo at 918 mb at longitude 56, in a very similar location in 1989--dropped from 990 mb the day before==VHS frame grabs below

[url][/url] https://i.imgur.com/uhucfV2.jpg
[url][/url] https://i.imgur.com/N3PfdvP.jpg

4K

That was the day we nearly lost the Hurricane Hunter plane too. (Hugo entered an ERC shortly thereafter)

[CryHavoc]

I think this will get to over 200 mph strength before an eye wall replacement starts likely Some tine in the next 3 days. That would mean even higher wind gust field. Lee looks to be the hurricane of the likes the Atlantic has never seen before. I really hope it remains off US shores. I live in Charleston, SC and remember Hugo wasn't suppose to come in. But last minute, it came straight in. Hugo had massive number of tornadoes in it too. People prayed that night. The sound was hours of freight trains. When the eye came over, all calm and trees laying down in one direction. After the eye wall passed, nightmare started all over again. Next day, all the trees were laying the opposite direction.This storm looks to be the storm of the century and hoping it does not come near any land. Will take a while for it to dissipate. Not good. I really hope they are correct on this far out modeling it to curve away.

I don't believe the current OHC would permit 200mph sustained. The warmest waters are far S and W of Lee's location. We've only seen that with one storm in history (well, arguably 2 with Haiyan).

I think it's going to be awfully hard for a storm in Lee's place to go much higher than 185mph. Which is still incredible.... and worrying, for the future of our planet/oceans/coastal communities.

[BobHarlem]

I wonder how big the ocean swell waves will be with this, does anyone have any idea? I havent seen any forecasts yet, I would expect a High Surf Warning and Coastal Flood warnings for NPR, right?

The GFS and Euro have significant wave heights as one of the map parameters (Check out 12z euro as it approaches Maine) Although I think that'll get more refined after recon data gets in (probably 12z models tomorrow). Although it's more for the open ocean, the proximity to land is a big tell.

[dukeblue219]

I think this will get to over 200 mph strength before an eye wall replacement starts likely Some tine in the next 3 days. That would mean even higher wind gust field. Lee looks to be the hurricane of the likes the Atlantic has never seen before. I really hope it remains off US shores. I live in Charleston, SC and remember Hugo wasn't suppose to come in. But last minute, it came straight in.

Hugo was not a surprise to Charlestonians... it was pretty accurately forecast several days out. Not sure if you're thinking of something else perhaps.
https://www.weather.gov/ilm/hurricanehugo
https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/1993/chapter/12

[Iceresistance]

Last post before I sleep for the night

Line is general motion in the past 4 hours

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgXi7.png

[Meteorcane]

I wonder how big the ocean swell waves will be with this, does anyone have any idea? I havent seen any forecasts yet, I would expect a High Surf Warning and Coastal Flood warnings for NPR, right?

Looks like the NWS near-shore wave model predicts 10-12 footers for the north shore late weekend into Monday. Interestingly if you loop through the latest run here https://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/nwps/nwpsloop.php?site=SJU&loop=sigwaveheight&cg=1 you can see the long period swell late that comes down toward the middle of the week behind the system is pretty impressive as well.

[cheezyWXguy]

Stepped away for a few hours. Knew this would be near cat5 but was not expecting a 155kt SFMR. ERC does seem probable soon, given the expansion of the canopy, contraction of the eye, and slight warming of cloud tops. That said, Lee looks like a prime candidate for a meld, would be interesting to see if that plays out

[canebeard]

Hugo at 918 mb at longitude 56, in a very similar location in 1989--dropped from 990 mb the day before==VHS frame grabs below

[imgur][/imgur]
[imgur][/imgur]


That was the day we nearly lost the Hurricane Hunter plane too. (Hugo entered an ERC shortly thereafter)

[Ianswfl]

I need to go to bed, I don't know what I will wake up to tomorrow morning...

Was like that with Ian with me in Punta Gorda. Stayed up till 3 and woke up around 7 and saw it was 155mph. Decided to stay put. I'm right next to I75 2500 feet west of it by the airport. Figured if I got surge it would only been a couple feet and said heck I'm staying.

[cycloneye]

I wonder how big the ocean swell waves will be with this, does anyone have any idea? I havent seen any forecasts yet, I would expect a High Surf Warning and Coastal Flood warnings for NPR, right?

Definitly, big swells and dangerous rip currents will arrive to the north coast of PR this weekend thru Monday.

[IsabelaWeather]

I wonder how big the ocean swell waves will be with this, does anyone have any idea? I havent seen any forecasts yet, I would expect a High Surf Warning and Coastal Flood warnings for NPR, right?

The GFS and Euro have significant wave heights as one of the map parameters (Check out 12z euro as it approaches Maine) Although I think that'll get more refined after recon data gets in (probably 12z models tomorrow). Although it's more for the open ocean, the proximity to land is a big tell.

That doesnt translate to swells on the beach well.

[canebeard]

Hugo at 918 mb at longitude 56, in a very similar location in 1989--dropped from 990 mb the day before==VHS frame grabs below
[imgur][/imgur]
[imgur][/imgur]
]

That was the day we nearly lost the Hurricane Hunter plane too. (Hugo entered an ERC shortly thereafter)

[CronkPSU]

last chance before 11 PM EST update...will NHC pull the trigger on Cat 5?

[ElectricStorm]

last chance before 11 PM EST update...will NHC pull the trigger on Cat 5?

Should they? I think so
Will they? Idk I wouldn't be surprised to see 135kts with the lower FL winds

[dukeblue219]

last chance before 11 PM EST update...will NHC pull the trigger on Cat 5?

Oh for sure. 98% chance in my mind.

[emeraldislenc]

I was living in Wilmington when Hugo hit I think the experts were thinking Hugo would hit near the Myrtle Beach area but it came into SC a little north of Charleston in the village of McClelansville.

[ElectricStorm]

Cat 5!

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 52.4W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES