Rita Recon Reports

[Brent]

1!!!! *throws papers all over den*

Guess I can sit here and watch this plane circle LAX undisturbed.

[Scorpion]

We are going to miss a historic event becaue of recon leaving. I can't believe it. THis can very well peak as stronger than Gilbert. SOmeone get a plane in there now!!

[Andy_L]

We are going to miss a historic event becaue of recon leaving. I can't believe it. THis can very well peak as stronger than Gilbert. SOmeone get a plane in there now!!

Perhaps you could put in a recon request to Accuweather Maybe JB will jump into his mystery plane and fly into the eye *snicker*

[cjrciadt]

898mb was found and it was no the exact center!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Telling to myselft= It wont make 850mb! It wont make 850mb! It wont make 850mb!

[Brent]

Eye has tightened up and unbelievably, cloudtops are colder since.

[canegrl04]

I bet next recon finds 890mb She'll have to be at least packing sustained winds of 180mph

[cjrciadt]

Can someone tell me why the unmanned plane is not being used????????? I understand the risk of the manned missions but if we lose the aerosonde recording sub 890 and 190 plus sustained it my be worth it.

[Scorpion]

Theyre only making it 150 for 11. I believe if recon goes in in a few hours and finds 895-900 then they will lower the min pressure to 890 or so in the analyis.

[WindRunner]

I bet next recon finds 890mb She'll have to be at least packing sustained winds of 180mph

Yeah 8pm models ran at 175 mph. I wouldn't be surprised to see 185-190 at 5am.

[baygirl_1]

Okay, as many years as I've been following storms I should know this, but I don't...
Derek is supposed to be going up on a NOAA flight tonight per his posts in the Tropical Analysis forum. Does anyone know if they will be being doing pressure readings and such? Or are they just doing atmospheric sampling?
I have never really understood exactly what the breakdown of duties for flights (NOAA, Air Force).

[Brent]

Okay, as many years as I've been following storms I should know this, but I don't...
Derek is supposed to be going up on a NOAA flight tonight per his posts in the Tropical Analysis forum. Does anyone know if they will be being doing pressure readings and such? Or are they just doing atmospheric sampling?
I have never really understood exactly what the breakdown of duties for flights (NOAA, Air Force).

I think it will do both... although more the upper air sampling. It should at least do a pressure fix, especially if there's no recon in there.

[Brent]

Okay, as many years as I've been following storms I should know this, but I don't...
Derek is supposed to be going up on a NOAA flight tonight per his posts in the Tropical Analysis forum. Does anyone know if they will be being doing pressure readings and such? Or are they just doing atmospheric sampling?
I have never really understood exactly what the breakdown of duties for flights (NOAA, Air Force).

I think it will do both... although more the upper air sampling. It should at least do a pressure fix, especially if there's no recon in there.

[Andy_L]

Okay, as many years as I've been following storms I should know this, but I don't...
Derek is supposed to be going up on a NOAA flight tonight per his posts in the Tropical Analysis forum. Does anyone know if they will be being doing pressure readings and such? Or are they just doing atmospheric sampling?
I have never really understood exactly what the breakdown of duties for flights (NOAA, Air Force).

I think it will do both... although more the upper air sampling. It should at least do a pressure fix, especially if there's no recon in there.

ummmm nope. If Derek is on a synoptic flight in a gulfstream jet at 40K+ feet, that aircraft cannot penetrate Rita for a location/pressure fix. The gulfstreams aren't able to do penetration flights...they wouldn't survive

[soonertwister]

What's disgusting to me is that NHC could have sounded the siren call with 160 knot winds in the advisory (185 mph), but in spite of a very impressive pressure fall, they chose to characterize Rita as unchanged in intensity.

If any lives are lost by their ridiculous political posturing, the blood is on their hands. Not yours. Not mine.

I'm so disgusted by their deliberate avoidance of the truth that I honestly want to hurl. What do they exist for, anyway?

[mtm4319]

What's disgusting to me is that NHC could have sounded the siren call with 160 knot winds in the advisory (185 mph), but in spite of a very impressive pressure fall, they chose to characterize Rita as unchanged in intensity.

The intensity was increased by 5 knots (and due to rounding, the mph went up from 165 to 175).

[linkerweather]

What's disgusting to me is that NHC could have sounded the siren call with 160 knot winds in the advisory (185 mph), but in spite of a very impressive pressure fall, they chose to characterize Rita as unchanged in intensity.

If any lives are lost by their ridiculous political posturing, the blood is on their hands. Not yours. Not mine.

I'm so disgusted by their deliberate avoidance of the truth that I honestly want to hurl. What do they exist for, anyway?

So, what you are saying is people wou;d not evacuate for 175 mph wind but will for 185???

[Stratosphere747]

What's disgusting to me is that NHC could have sounded the siren call with 160 knot winds in the advisory (185 mph), but in spite of a very impressive pressure fall, they chose to characterize Rita as unchanged in intensity.

If any lives are lost by their ridiculous political posturing, the blood is on their hands. Not yours. Not mine.

I'm so disgusted by their deliberate avoidance of the truth that I honestly want to hurl. What do they exist for, anyway?

I respectfully disagree with you sooner, and I am in the direct line of Rita..

They upgraded the winds to 175 with the latest advisory. It's past the point of even making a difference any more...

[Hurrilurker]

What's disgusting to me is that NHC could have sounded the siren call with 160 knot winds in the advisory (185 mph), but in spite of a very impressive pressure fall, they chose to characterize Rita as unchanged in intensity.

Does it really matter? A Cat 5 is a Cat 5, and it's still quite a ways from landfall. Even if it's a Cat 3 or 4, it shouldn't change people's evacuation plans. We can argue as a technical matter whether they should have changed their wording, but I can't see how additional lives will be lost under the circumstances. In the immediate wake of Katrina, people should know better.

[soonertwister]

I will say this. When I visited the NHC site, they had the winds unchanged at 165, in spite of the continuing dramatic fall in pressure. I didn't go back to see if they'd taken an oskie.

I'm glad they changed the winds to 175, but the fact remains that now they are saying "Yes you live in Houston, but you are above sea level, and this storm is no stronger than Katrina."

Nothing in the real record supports winds as low as 175 mph (155 knots). They are minimizing the catastrophe that could strike a metro area that at last report counted 5.2 million people has residents.

I know what I'm seeing, and hopefully at some point NHC can explain their low-ball estimate when the next recon won't be for hours. They have access to much more of the big picture than I do, but for those who don't know it, I'm a big advocate of the truth, and we aren't getting it from them right now regarding the magnitude of this threat.

[angelwing]

Makes me think they are almost afraid to say how strong it is (not flaming them, just a feeling I have that's all)