Bonnie Advisories

[Matthew5]

It looks like ralph nader is the next President of the United states.

[Stormsfury]

Yeah, I also noticed that the FL winds were 56 KTS at FL level. The pressure was extrapolated from 1500 ft ...

LOL ... just read the 2:05 TWD from NHC ...

A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 120 NM NNW OF CANCUN MEXICO...
MOVING NW ABOUT 10-15 KT INTO THE S/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW HAS A SMALL BUT ELONGATED
CIRCULATION EXTENDING FROM THE N YUCATAN COAST NEWD TO 25N87W.
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY TO THE S OF THE LOW CENTER
TOWARDS THE YUCATAN COAST BUT A SECOND CLUSTER TO THE N IS
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE PROPAGATING SWIFTLY NWD.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24.5N BETWEEN 86W-90W.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANCUN HAS SHOWED A SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
CIRCULATION TRAVELING JUST N OF THE YUCATAN COAST WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL SKIRTING JUST INLAND FROM CANCUN TO TIZIMIN...SPREADING
W TO NEAR MERIDA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED
OVER THE W/CNTRL GULF JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

[PTrackerLA]

It looks like ralph nader is the next President of the United states.

LOL Someone needs a bucket of crow!

[Stormcenter]

According to the forecast path it will be hitting the Florida panhandle on Thursday. Looks more like an October path due to unseasonably strong cold front coming through late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.

I wouldn't put too much weight on this track. I said yesterday this storm had the MS/AL Gulf coast as a bullseye. Hopefully it won't be more than a minimal hurricane at best.

[Janie34]

I always had faith in Ralph.

[Dean4Storms]

WOW!! I know I was seeing a LLC this AM, but I did not think it this strong.

[PTrackerLA]

Well we can only hope it stays small so that it would lessen the impact of wherever it hits.

[donsutherland1]

Previously, I had noted:

I believe TD #2 will likely develop into a named storm (tropical storm or hurricane) for three reasons:

1) It is tracking through an area of falling wind shear
2) It will not encounter moderate to strong wind shear for at least the next day
3) It is moving across 28°C and warmer waters (SSTAs are near normal to ever slightly above normal).

Whether or not it becomes a hurricane is a whole different matter. However, I do believe odds are high that it will become at least a tropical storm.

Going back, TD #2 did degenerate into a tropical wave for an extended period of time. However, as it hit the GOM with very warm waters and a better environment in terms of reduced shear, it rejuvenated.

So, overall my initial idea was off; it was wrong.

However, the ultimate conclusion was borne out with TD #2 reviving and becoming a named storm. Bonnie's birth once again argues eloquently against prematurely writing off storms unless they have actually dissipated.

[Stormcenter]

WOW!! I know I was seeing a LLC this AM, but I did not think it this strong.

I just knew Ralph Nader would be president one day.
Congrats!!!!!!!

[tallywx]

http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/kbdi/4km_main.html

We're having a short-term drought in the Florida Panhandle (see link to soil moisture levels), so a 50kt tropical storm could be helpful. Let's just hope it doesn't get too strong.

As for TD3, I'm not looking forward to next week. It always gives me the creeps when an already strong hurricane moves into the Gulf.

[Dean4Storms]

As someone representing the FL. Panhandle............

YIKES!!!!!!!!!!

[Guest]

I have an idea that TPC has jumped the gun here....

THIS is according to TPC a TS
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/VIS/20.jpg

BUT the system in SE Caribbean is NOT?
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/.../recentvis.html
okay...sure...

but since it is official it is crow eating time....

DT
Professional-Met



Joined: 14 Sep 2003
Posts: 248
Location: richmond va
Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2004 2:05 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There is a better chance of ralph nader winning the presidency than NON thing that was once TD 2 developing into a TC

Typhoon_Willie wrote:
You forget about the possibility of TD#2 developing as MWatkins has mentioned in another thread...If that happens then TD 3 may be forced northward a bit sooner than forecasted!
--------------------------------------------------
Someone serve DT a nice big plate of crow. LOL!!

[Agua]

Well we can only hope it stays small so that it would lessen the impact of wherever it hits.

Please, let's say *weak* rather than small as *small* storms can be subject to the quickest intensification.

[tallywx]

Well said. The Emerald Coast beaches don't need another pounding. They're just starting to look nice and solid again (except for Destin, which is just a sliver now).

[PTrackerLA]

I meant small in areal coverage...the smaller a storm the less people it affects. I know they can still be very intense.

[tallywx]

Hey, when you find a closed Vortex and 56 kt flight level winds, what else can you do? Ignore the data and say, nah, it looks bad on satellite, so we're not going to classify it?

[PTrackerLA]

Well said. The Emerald Coast beaches don't need another pounding. They're just starting to look nice and solid again (except for Destin, which is just a sliver now).

Tell me about it I have relatives with a condo on Pennsacola beach which just had a beach renourishment project about 2 years ago. They don't need any storms to come ahnd mess all that up again.

[Guest]

fair point.... but is the gust to 56 knots a convective Gust or real?

[Baytown Bug]

According to the forecast path it will be hitting the Florida panhandle on Thursday. Looks more like an October path due to unseasonably strong cold front coming through late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.

I wouldn't put too much weight on this track. I said yesterday this storm had the MS/AL Gulf coast as a bullseye. Hopefully it won't be more than a minimal hurricane at best.

I guess I should go cut grass.

[ncweatherwizard]

^bump^ for Bonnie forecast added (trying to keep the number of different topics down)