ATL: IKE Discussion

[HURAKAN]

In case you couldn't see it:

[Stormcenter]

NFL pushed this Sunday's Ravens/Texans game to Monday night at 7:30 PM.

We'll have two Texas teams (Cowboys) playing on Monday night.

If they can play the game. I wouldn't count on that.

[PTrackerLA]

There is still very little rain showing up on radar with Ike. I expect most of the rain to come on the backside which means we probably won't get much here, outside of a few squalls, until tonight. The images from Galveston are already unbelievable.

[gboudx]

According to this new measure: Integrated Kinetic Energy, Ike is the second most powerful Atlantic storm in the past 40 years (more powerful than Katrina or Rita by virtue of its vast wind field).

First ever NWS deathcast?

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL
EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF
HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH
EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... ne+Warning

The HRL for Katrina was quite pointed as well. But they mentioned livestock and pets in addition to persons for Katrina.

[jinftl]

I am not familiar with Galveston...is there a part of the island that is above say 20' or 25' that would be relatively safe? Jim Cantore restated that 30,000 stayed.

Did I hear Jim Cantore correctly? Did he say that only 50-60% of the west side of Galveston evacuated and 80% of the east side??

[HouTXmetro]

Seawall is the higest point, 17 feet I believe.

[AZRainman]

The HRL for Katrina was quite pointed as well. But they mentioned livestock and pets in addition to persons for Katrina.

Guess I missed the "certain death" phrase...first I have ever seen that wording used.

[Aristotle]

Funny I thought he was done. He seems to be getting his act together very quickly. We are starting to see some lower pressures. The eye seems to be coming together albeit not in a normal way.

To look at the Eye via microwave it seems like its open but on the visual it looks put together. It almost seems as if its taken portions of 3 separate portions of 3 different eye walls and put them together. I know its not a normal sign of strengthening but what about Ike has been normal?

I'm thinking its gonna ramp up. Hopefully it won't have time to do too much.

This storm is really weird!!!

[rtd2]

According to this new measure: Integrated Kinetic Energy, Ike is the second most powerful Atlantic storm in the past 40 years (more powerful than Katrina or Rita by virtue of its vast wind field).

First ever NWS deathcast?

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL
EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF
HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH
EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... ne+Warning

I think this is because of surges seen in Katrina that KILLED...go back and read the statement on katrina just prior to L/F. it was a frightning read which in reality was worse....FOLKS AROUND HERE were praying katrinas winds would reduce which they did but most NEVER anticipated a cat 5 surge that followed......people need to stop looking a cat 2 IKE and start seeing 20ft+ surge. folks inland away from the water should be fine.

[gubyw1]

All I can say based on IR is that Ike's area of convection looks like the largest ever for any GOM hurricane, and the windfield is enormous. Ike has been pushing waves in front of it all the way through the gulf with a relatively linear track, and that's going to lead to a water stacking effect even if it is only 950 mb while Rita/Katrina were 910 mb or so. Hopefully it weakens, but if it even maintains this intensity we're looking at serious damage to all structures in Galveston, mostly from water/waves and nobody should be in that area now, as others have already said.

[KWT]

I am not familiar with Galveston...is there a part of the island that is above say 20' or 25' that would be relatively safe? Jim Cantore restated that 30,000 stayed.

Did I hear Jim Cantore correctly? Did he say that only 50-60% of the west side of Galveston evacuated and 80% of the east side??

Please tell me thats not true...if thats true then this will be as bad as Katrina...

West Galveston already flooding and we are a hell of a long way out now, seawall still protecting the eastern side but the waves crashing over the top.

[HouTXmetro]

Can't provide a link but I read recon reporting dropping pressure.....952 114kts flight level winds

[Aristotle]

I am not familiar with Galveston...is there a part of the island that is above say 20' or 25' that would be relatively safe? Jim Cantore restated that 30,000 stayed.

Did I hear Jim Cantore correctly? Did he say that only 50-60% of the west side of Galveston evacuated and 80% of the east side??

A flooding model showing the eye coming on shore to the west of Galveston has the entire island underwater. I don't know about you but I'm thinking even if I was in a 4 story building and there was nothing but violent sea around me....I probably dudie in my pants. People who stayed are plain dumb. At least go to houston.

[jinftl]

So not be alarmist or anything like that, and it is not a guarantee that the storm will hit in such a way that a 20'+ surge hits that particular spot, simple math would tell me that the island could be at a minimum 3' under water. The probability of that happening is high enough...and by high enough...anything over 5% should be enough....to get people to shelters. I have to imagine there are still shelter options available in the Greater Houston/Galveston area and probably even resources to assist in providing info, if not more, to the shelters...but once the conditions worsen, the time to go has passed.

Seawall is the higest point, 17 feet I believe.

[KWT]

Yep HouTXmetro thats nearly 10kts higher then last recon found at flight level, not surprising given the deep convective bursting thats happening in the eastern side.

[Raebie]

Correction. It will be worse than Katrina if there are really 30,000 still on the island.

[rtd2]

So not be alarmist or anything like that, and it is not a guarantee that the storm will hit in such a way that a 20'+ surge hits that particular spot, simple math would tell me that the island could be at a minimum 3' under water. The probability of that happening is high enough...and by high enough...anything over 5% should be enough....to get people to shelters. I have to imagine there are still shelter options available in the Greater Houston/Galveston area and probably even resources to assist in providing info, if not more, to the shelters...but once the conditions worsen, the time to go has passed.

Seawall is the higest point, 17 feet I believe.

also figure in tides....hopefully its not HIGH tide at L/F

[HurricaneHunter914]

10am advisory should be out shortly.

[Aristotle]

Correction. It will be worse than Katrina if there are really 30,000 still on the island.

Agreed the difference between Galveston and N.O. is that Galveston is an Island. Little different than water rushing in from broken Levee's people don't get that. They watch people on house tops as water rushed in from broken levee's. If your on your house top in Galveston a wave is gonna sweep you into the gulf. Lot different.

[aelliott209]

I heard on the TV this morning that they have told residents in Houston to shelter in place and not evacuate. Can this be correct???

I havent looked into the Houston local news yet but this was posted on the Sun Herald's site this morning:

http://www.sunherald.com/pageone/story/807714.html

My stomache is turning thinking of what those of us on the MS Gulfcoast saw in the first few days after Katrina hit. I hope that people are taking the surge warnings for Ike seriously, and I hope they learned something from Katrina. Those who were DIRECTLY effected by Katrina understand the potential that Ike holds for utter devastation and loss of life.

My prayers are with everyone in Ike's path. My advise-Get out of Dodge!