ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

rtd2, sadly high tide is expected to be around landfall...

[pablolopez26]

Im here in NW Houston and so far most stores are sold out of supplies. No water, no nothing...

The winds are slowly picking up.

[Aristotle]

Correction. It will be worse than Katrina if there are really 30,000 still on the island.

Agreed the difference between Galveston and N.O. is that Galveston is an Island. Little different than water rushing in from broken Levee's people don't get that. They watch people on house tops as water rushed in from broken levee's. If your on your house top in Galveston a wave is gonna sweep you into the gulf. Lot different.

[PhillyWX]

Some water coming in the low-lying areas around Galveston County:

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... h-ike.html

[KWT]

Advisory says winds still at 90kts but this was probably done before the latest recon mission has come through which has shown winds of 114kts at flight level, which does not translate to 90kts but more like 100kts...

[rockyman]

[Aristotle]

Advisory says winds still at 90kts but this was probably done before the latest recon mission has come through which has shown winds of 114kts at flight level, which does not translate to 90kts but more like 100kts...

Holly Sheep dip KWT. That eye may not be real but it certainly looks like it is on vis. Winds at 114 Kts. This is not good. NOT GOOD AT ALL.

[JtSmarts]

Advisory says winds still at 90kts but this was probably done before the latest recon mission has come through which has shown winds of 114kts at flight level, which does not translate to 90kts but more like 100kts...

They might be holding back because they haven't really been able to find any surface winds higher than 86-88 kts...thus far. I definitely think they will see stronger SFMR winds as the day goes on,

[tolakram]

[jinftl]

To put those at ease in the area to be effected that have hunkered down inland in a safe place....all this talk of massive storm surge is not in any way to imply you made a bad choice by even staying where you are. If you are out of a surge zone and in a well-built structure, ideally with impact-resistant windows or storm shutters or even plywood, you are safe. Your experience for the most part will be centered around extended loss of power and lots of tree loss. If you are in a surge zone, Ike is a different beast for you.

[lester]

Advisory says winds still at 90kts but this was probably done before the latest recon mission has come through which has shown winds of 114kts at flight level, which does not translate to 90kts but more like 100kts...

maybe a special adv. soon?

-lester

[cpdaman]

Just heard Steve Lyons say it could strengthen a little more when it taps the trough...what would cause this?

excellent question, i heard him mention this a couple times

especially saying watch for the clouds in the northern quad appear to fan off to the NNE or so which would indicate interaction from the trough which we believe will act to strengthen ike to paraphrase steve lyons

i could be wrong but taking a que from wilma and the way that she accelerated while strengthening as she entered the right front region of what i believe was termed a " very powerful jet stream max" (ahead of a se trough dipping down toward the gulf), this could be a similiar type mechanism, perhaps a pro-met or someone knowledgeable could chime

this is a quote taken from pro-met alhurricane from the wilma thread when someone asked why wilma strengthened


"I don't mean to beat this topic into the ground, but I talked about it the last few days. What ended up happening was that Wilma is positioned under the right entrance region of a very potent jet streak located north to the storm. This is a very divergent portion of the jet and helped to establish a strong outflow channel to the north.

In addition, the storm's increase in forward speed helped to mitigate any shear since the storm was moving relative to the mean wind flow.

All in all, Wilma ended up having very favorable conditions for strengthening and she responded"

is this is what may cause the trough to intensify IKe ala steve lyons previous talk

[HURAKAN]

[physicx07]

You guys were probably asleep earlier when a dropsonde found 132kts at 923mb (with a .75 standard reduction from 925 translates to 99kts), on its way down to find wind at the surface 0f 92kts. There were some really amazing dropsonde winds they were finding for a couple hours there.

Another thought: I do fear this could be worse than Katrina when all is said and done. I have a gut feeling there will be a lot of people trapped by the rapidly rising water on Galveston, not to mention I fear to see what surge will be in the bay and into populated areas. There seemed to be so much confusion because evac orders seemed to be slow. Even after they order the evac, a lot of people might blow it off since they see it's a cat 2.

[Aristotle]

Mercy!

[CronkPSU]

[rtd2]

Correction. It will be worse than Katrina if there are really 30,000 still on the island.

Agreed the difference between Galveston and N.O. is that Galveston is an Island. Little different than water rushing in from broken Levee's people don't get that. They watch people on house tops as water rushed in from broken levee's. If your on your house top in Galveston a wave is gonna sweep you into the gulf. Lot different.

COULDNT AGREE!!! more if anyone wants a reminder of how a storm surge can WIPE a cost clean then feel free to borwse the link below(b.t.w the 2nd picture on the left shows a port building that sat 30ft above sea level the surge plus waves exceeded 30ft in this area as you can see) WATER IS A KILLER!

http://www.gulfcoastnews.com/GCNkatrinaPhotosPass.htm

[debbiet]

As part of Fire/EMS I've worked thru a few hurricane events...a general rule of thumb (at least for our area) for rescue or assisting people to shelter who have waited too long to get there on their own is sustained winds of 45 mph, but this storm is not going to be about the wind...it will be about the water. With the water on a slow but steady rise, there will be some opportunity to get folks out who change their mind...but the storm surge at landfall will essentially be a tidal wave...and nobody can fight that. I imagine more folks would have evaculated Galveston if they thought a tsunami were coming at them.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I do fear this could be worse than Katrina when all is said and done.

As do I. I hope, and pray, we are wrong though.

[jinftl]

Per the NHC...

THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY
TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE.

I don't take from that a period of insane intensification is ahead...the size of the storm is so large that large spin ups or spin downs in a short amount of time are not likely. This is not likely to pull a charley. But, it is bad enough as is.

Just heard Steve Lyons say it could strengthen a little more when it taps the trough...what would cause this?

excellent question, i heard him mention this a couple times

especially saying watch for the clouds in the northern quad appear to fan off to the NNE or so which would indicate interaction from the trough which we believe will act to strengthen ike to paraphrase steve lyons

i could be wrong but taking a que from wilma and the way that she accelerated while strengthening as she entered the right front region of what i believe was termed a " very powerful jet stream max" (ahead of a se trough dipping down toward the gulf), this could be a similiar type mechanism, perhaps a pro-met or someone knowledgeable could chime

this is a quote taken from pro-met alhurricane from the wilma thread when someone asked why wilma strengthened


"I don't mean to beat this topic into the ground, but I talked about it the last few days. What ended up happening was that Wilma is positioned under the right entrance region of a very potent jet streak located north to the storm. This is a very divergent portion of the jet and helped to establish a strong outflow channel to the north.

In addition, the storm's increase in forward speed helped to mitigate any shear since the storm was moving relative to the mean wind flow.

All in all, Wilma ended up having very favorable conditions for strengthening and she responded"

is this is what may cause the trough to intensify IKe ala steve lyons previous talk