ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[LowndesCoFire]

Lyons has a totally different take than the NHC. His "cone" barely includes JAX while NHC includes Savannah, GA...???

[jabber]

As much structure as she has it won't take much to crank back up once she gets in the Atlantic...up to nearly 100kts according to the GFDL. Would that be a record for GA if it followed the GFDL forecast?

I must be looking at another storm on satellite. I see a storm with a collapsing core and expanding wind field. It'll take quite a while to recover from this. Chances of it making hurricane strength have diminished considerably.

I agree. She always had a very strong MLC.. I think thats what kept her alive so long over FL.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I almost have to agree with TWC. Look at the wv loops and see how Fay is startin gto flatten out on her northern side. Also look at VA and NC and how the upper level clouds are dropping due south. Obvious signs that the high is starting to flex its muscle.

[Raebie]

I guess -removed- is OK with this storm given the fact that no one has a freakin clue.

It's going over Charlotte and is going to dump a crapload of rain.

You read it here first.

[Frank P]

Anyone just lisen to Dr. Lyons? He just mentioned that she was way off the current track and headed east. He also mentioned she really has few options but west. Feel free to mdoify as I am obviously not quoting.

watching this loop is was quite a bit off track but looks like it is trying to get back on track with a more northerly motion in the past 30 minutes...

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

[crazycajuncane]

I don't know if "fun" is the word, but this storm has been just that.

Que up the music... "Crazy b!tc#" Fay definitely is one crazy storm.

[expat2carib]

Someone was asking about a model plot a while back. I worked up a plot of 18Z models. This time, I only took out the BAM models. All other models are in there, including many iterations of the GFDL, NOGAPS, GFS, and NAM. Pretty good agreement on not bringing Fay across Florida and into the Gulf. GFS is the only model doing that (in these plots). Question is, how far offshore does Fay get? How long is it over water?

Oh, and the timing of that NW turn varies from about 1pm tomorrow to 1am Thursday.

From what I've observed, the longer it's over water, the weaker it gets.

On your model plot Wx57 which are the most reliable models out of the bunch? Thanks for all you do on this board. Impact weather is blessed to have a forecaster of your calibur.

I vote for wxman57 to be the first psychmet This storm needs some therapy.

A system that doesn't like water

[jinftl]

agree...we don't even know where she will be in the morning...any one dea as to where she is in 5 days is as good as any other at this point.

I guess -removed- is OK with this storm given the fact that no one has a freakin clue.

It's going over Charlotte and is going to dump a crapload of rain.

You read it here first.

[Sanibel]

If it's maintaining low pressure it will refire over water.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Lyons has a totally different take than the NHC. His "cone" barely includes JAX while NHC includes Savannah, GA...???

Weather Channel cone...proceed with caution.

[Wx_Warrior]

"Now back to It Could Happen Tomorrow"

[RL3AO]

Lyons has a totally different take than the NHC. His "cone" barely includes JAX while NHC includes Savannah, GA...???

Weather Channel cone...proceed with caution.

TWC uses the NHCs forecast.

EDIT: Or maybe they don't. I always thought they did.

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather.

[tallywx]

As much structure as she has it won't take much to crank back up once she gets in the Atlantic...up to nearly 100kts according to the GFDL. Would that be a record for GA if it followed the GFDL forecast?

I must be looking at another storm on satellite. I see a storm with a collapsing core and expanding wind field. It'll take quite a while to recover from this. Chances of it making hurricane strength have diminished considerably.

That's what I'm noticing too. She's forming a steady-state "gyre"-like structure that'll have a large radius of winds, but no real wind peak or dynamic eyewall structure. Might turn into one of those storms where surface winds are only 65-70% of flight-level winds.

[Dean4Storms]

Lyons has a totally different take than the NHC. His "cone" barely includes JAX while NHC includes Savannah, GA...???

Weather Channel cone...proceed with caution.

Funny, AccuWeather has there cone to the north of NHC and TWC has there cone to the south. We got it all covered, everyone from SC down to Daytona need to prepare!

[crazycajuncane]

The Weather Channel's cone keeps it over Atlantic waters shortly and possibly a lot longer in the GOM.

I gave up on The Weather Channel a few years ago. I used to enjoy watching years ago, but it's become too commercial. There could be severe weather, but as long as "It could happen tomorrow" is playing you will get the weather on a ticker at the bottom of the screen.

Too much valuable info on S2K anyway!

[Jason_B]

In order for TWC's cone to verify Fay will have to take a very sharp west turn soon and I don't see that happening. GOM looking good looking at the models wxman57 posted.

[SouthFLTropics]

Satellite presentation looks pretty poor right now but the radar returns still look pretty good. She looks like she is stair stepping towards the coast, crossing into SW Indian River County. I think the poor radar presentation is due to her approach to the coast. Remember, this girl hates water!!! :a:

SFT

[shah8]

That's bad.

It means the cries of "annular hurricane" rings out from bleachers!

[GeneratorPower]

"Now back to It Could Happen Tomorrow"

More like, "now back to Cabinet Refinishing 101". Seriously, I turned it on one morning and they are remodeling a kitchen for about 10 minutes. Ridiculous.