Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

These are yesterday temperatures in Central America:
-Warmer than normal lows were registered in Belize and Panama. Near normal lows occurred in Guatemala, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. El Salvador and Honduras experienced cooler than normal lows.
-Near normal highs were registered in Belize, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Guatemala and Honduras had warmer than normal highs.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.0°C (42.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 6.5°C (43.7°F) Coldest temperature in El Salvador since March 23
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 12°C (54°F) Coldest since March 24
La Esperanza, Honduras 5°C (41°F) Coldest temperature in Honduras since March 24
Choluteca, Honduras 20°C (68°F) Coolest since march 24
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F) Coolest since April 18
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.4°C (43.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.9°C (75.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.1°C (55.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.4°C (74.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.1°C (86.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.2°C (70.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.0°C (95.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.1°C (80.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.5°C (90.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.2°C (72.0°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
325 PM AST THU NOV 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID/UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BEFORE REDEVELOPS EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFTERMENTIONED
SHORT-WAVE TROF ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. THIS TROF HAS
A MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH THE TROPICAL STORM SEAN. SATELLITE
DERIVED BLENDED PW ANALYSIS INDICATES TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE
2.0" AND LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PUERTO RICO. A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT GENERATED BY THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROF ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...HAS BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM HATILLO TO
RINCON...WHERE THE RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...THE TROF ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL IN AND INDUCE SOME WARMING ALOFT. THE WARMING AND A REDUCTION
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY. A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADES WILL ALSO ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A NOTICEABLY IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER
CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY WITH FURTHER IMPROVEMENT AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODERATE TRADES AND A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... MORE FREQUENT
THAN NORMAL MVFR...LOCALLY IFR...CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH ABOUT 10/23Z...IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 4-6 FEET RANGE EXCEPT
THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS
WILL BE BELOW 18 KNOTS BUT SINCE SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 FEET...SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 75 87 / 40 20 20 30
STT 76 87 78 87 / 50 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST FRI NOV 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH CROSSED THROUGH PUERTO
RICO OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE FOLLOWING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FLOW THROUGH THE LATTER PASSAGE WILL BE NORTHERLY.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST RIDGE OVER
HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS FLORIDA THAT SAME DAY AND
SPREAD OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THE SATURDAY AFTER NEXT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM SEAN AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
THAT PASSED THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND BUILD WHILE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SECOND
HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC FROM VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED IN THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. MOVEMENTS VARIED CONSIDERABLY
BECAUSE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT WAS GREATLY DEPENDENT ON THE HEIGHT
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS REACHED. SMALLER CELLS INDICATED THAT
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX WAS
SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE AREA CONTINUES BETWEEN 1.8
AND 2.0 INCHES AND MIMIC IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MOVING VERY
LITTLE. AT THE SAME TIME THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE IS
OVER HISPANIOLA HAS NOT LEFT THE ISLAND IN THE LAST 72 HOURS
ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED GREATLY BETWEEN THE WETTER AND
DRIER AIR. THIS THEN SETS OUR LOCAL AREA UP FOR CONTINUED LIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND OF
PUERTO RICO AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODELS SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT ON THE
SURFACE WINDS SO CRITICAL TO THE AREA OF SHOWER FORMATION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BECOME ALMOST UNIVERSALLY EAST NORTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY SIGNALING A SHIFT IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THAT UP TO NOW HAS FAVORED THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN GENERAL TODAY AND
CONSIDERABLE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE LIKELY NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL TODAY WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN
THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. NEVERTHELESS THIS SHOULD STILL RESULT IN
ONLY LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
LITTLE IF ANY FLOODING IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SATURDAY THE
FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST. IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
DIMINISHED SO AS TO LESSEN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL BE LESS LIKELY IN THE EAST AND THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRIER
EVERYWHERE...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MUST
STILL BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO
RICO. THERE SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS VARIABLE WITH MORNING SHOWERS ON THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST COASTS AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLAND WOULD BE GENERALLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT
ALL TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPO MVFR CONDS WILL BE
PSBL AT TJMZ...TJPS...TJBQ...AND TJSJ THRU 11/22Z WITH VCSH/VCTS
AND...SCT TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPING. MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE DEVELOPING TSRA/SHRA AFT 11/16Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO BELOW 7 FEET EVERYWHERE INCLUDING
BUOY 41043 OUTSIDE OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL RISE AGAIN
HOWEVER ON SUNDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE THEN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 75 / 60 30 20 40
STT 88 77 88 78 / 40 30 20 30

[Macrocane]

The cool temperatures have continued in Central America, these are the temperatures registered yesterday:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1.0°C (33.8°F) Coldest temperature in Central America since April 14
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.0°C (60.8°F) Coldest since March 24
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.2°C (52.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.4°C (68.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.3°C (41.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.2°C (75.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.9°C (57.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.3°C (77.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.6°C (85.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.1°C (64.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.2°C (95.4°F) Warmest since October 5
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.4°C (77.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 30.2°C (86.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 11.9°C (53.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.1°C (88.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.3°C (70.3°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST FRI NOV 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO ENCOMPASS THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A
CONTINUED MID LEVEL RIDGING BUT WITH A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALLOWING A COUPLE OF PERTURBATIONS TO PASS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN A
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY...TO RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EACH
DAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL
AS MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH 11/22Z.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME VCSH AND SCT CLOUDS.
LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 15 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING...
INCREASING ON SATURDAY AT AROUND 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT FRESHENING TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. LINGERING NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A NEW ROUND OF NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS
TONIGHT. AS INCREASING WINDS COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
ROUND OF LONGER PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS...WE EXPECT NEW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 86 / 20 20 40 40
STT 77 88 77 88 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST SAT NOV 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH THAT WILL FORM A CUT OFF
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH WILL PASS IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS. FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST OUT OF
HISPANIOLA WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL CROSS FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LOW WILL CUT OFF NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO PLACE ABOUT 750 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA ON THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TODAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH 50 AND 60
WEST AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH FROM THE EAST WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH AND SOUTH
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TOPS AS HIGH
AS 40 KFT IN SPITE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWERING BETWEEN
THREE TENTHS AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH DURING THE LAST 10 HOURS. CELLS
WERE ALL MOVING IN EASTERLY FLOW WITH A SLIGHT NORTHERLY
COMPONENT. ALTHOUGH FEWER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SEA
BREEZES AND CONTINUING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE
PRESENCE OF OFFSHORE THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
FORECASTING RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS THROUGH NEXT WEEK THAT
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIMITED NEXT WEEK THAN WAS
EXPERIENCED THIS WEEK WITH AIR DRIER THAN 50 BRIEFLY PERCENT
DIPPING BELOW 850 MB ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BAND OF DEEPER
MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THIS MAY BE TOO
FAR OUT FOR ANY CONFIDENCE. AT ANY RATE...FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT LOWER LEVELS FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE LOW
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
THAT SHOULD LEND A LITTLE MORE CONSTANCY TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IN
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT
ALL TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPO MVFR CONDS WILL BE
PSBL AT TJMZ AND TJPS THRU 12/22Z WITH VCSH/VCTS AND...SCT TSRA/SHRA
PSBL AT TJBQ. MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DEVELOPING
CLOUDINESS AND TSRA/SHRA AFT 12/16Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT 15 KTS OR LESS...MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...STRONGER GRADIENTS OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BRING
IN MORE SWELL TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY. FIRST SWELL WILL BE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT JUST
BARELY 7 FEET...BUT LATER SWELL ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH 8 TO 9
FEET FROM THE NORTHEAST. SWELL PERIODS WILL BE GENERALLY 10
SECONDS OR LESS. AT THIS TIME BREAKING WAVES FROM THIS SWELL
SHOULD BE JUST UNDER HIGH SURF CRITERIA...BUT WILL MONITOR
INCOMING WAVES AT OUTER BUOYS TO ENSURE THAT SEAS ARE CONFORMING
TO FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 86 76 / 20 40 20 30
STT 88 77 88 78 / 20 30 10 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST SAT NOV 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...DEEP RIDGING TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST OF PR/USVI TO
EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM BAHAMAS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY...AND TO
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF COMING WEEK. PR/USVI WILL THEN END UP WITH
A LONG LASTING NORTHEAST FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. DRIER
AIR HAS ARRIVED FROM THE EAST THOUGH 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING AND CURRENT
MIMIC SUGGESTS PROBABLY SLIGHTLY LESS DRY THAN MODELS INDICATE.
EXPECTED TREND OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL DRIER.

DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO REDUCE COVERAGE TO
ISOLATED SCATTERED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING AFTERNOONS WILL BE OVER
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF PR WHILE EAST/NORTHEAST PR AND USVI WILL SEE
LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT FLYING
HAZARDS EXPECTED EN ROUTE ACROSS THE LOCAL FA. GENERAL LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW FROM THE ENE AT 10 TO 20 KTS AND BACKING W/HEIGHT BCMG
MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.MARINE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER SWELLS THAT DEVELOPED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT EAST OF U.S. WILL BEGIN ARRIVING INTO AREA NORTH OF LOCAL
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. BUT STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TOO AS THE RIDGE RETREATS TO BAHAMAS TO BERMUDA WHICH WILL KEEP
GENERATING SWELLS INTO COASTAL WATERS. SWELLS COULD REACH 8-9 FEET
OR SO OFFSHORE OF NORTH COASTS BY TUE-WED. BUT SO FAR...MODELS
APPEAR TO BE A TAD TOO HIGH AND ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ON SUNDAY
WAS DELAYED A FEW HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 76 86 / 40 20 30 30
STT 77 88 78 87 / 30 10 40 40

[Gustywind]

So ITCZ flaring-up?

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The usual fresh trade winds will prevail bringing some scattered showers,but also plenty of sunshine for the NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST SUN NOV 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE HIGH OVER CUBA WILL MAKE FLOW NORTHERLY. THIS RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA WEAKLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHARPER
TROUGH ON TUESDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ABSORBS THE
HIGH OVER HISPANIOLA AND THEN CROSSES FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CUTS OFF EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. FLOW WITH A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURES MIGRATING THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A PERSISTENT WEAK LOW BETWEEN 45 AND 55 WEST KEEP
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. POCKETS OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN NIGHTTIME SHOWERS
ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT EACH DAY. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED OVER NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO LEAVING UP
TO ONE HALF INCH IN SOME PLACES. SAN JUAN RECORDED THIRTEEN
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. NEVERTHELESS THE 13/00Z SOUNDING CAME IN
NOTICEABLY DRIER ABOVE 800 MB THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS PRIOR. SHOWERS WERE
IN PART GENERATED FROM THE INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS WHICH
REACH 24 KNOTS AT NEAR 6 KFT. THE MIMIC PRODUCT DID SHOW A
FILAMENT OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO
RICO ORIENTED NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. THE
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THIS FILAMENT...BUT OTHER POCKETS OF MOISTURE
WILL FOLLOW LATER. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY PERSISTENT THOUGH WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN 45 AND 55 WEST LONGITUDE JUST NORTH OF 20
DEGREES NORTH...FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY INTO THANKSGIVING WEEK...THIS WILL PRODUCE A PATTERN
CONDUCIVE TO THE TYPICAL PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. DO NOT
EXPECT THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND THE GFS
IS NOW TAKING THE MID WEEK MID LEVEL MOISTURE SCARCITY AND
EXTENDING IT INTO THE WEEKEND AND THAT WILL LIMIT THE RAIN
PRODUCING CAPABILITY OF MOST OF THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL MAKE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
INFREQUENT AND VERY LOCALIZED. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR AS
PASSING SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE TNCM...TIST...TJSJ AND TJBQ.
EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE SITES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. GENERAL LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FROM THE ENE AT 10 TO 20 KTS
AND BACKING W/HEIGHT BCMG MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. ON TUESDAY SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL BEGIN AND BECOME LARGER THAN THAT FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST
PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THIS SWELL FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND
SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY IN THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. PERIODS ARE RELATIVELY SHORT RANGING FROM 7 TO 10
SECONDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE ATLANTIC OUTER WATERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 86 75 / 20 30 30 30
STT 88 77 87 77 / 10 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST SUN NOV 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...RATHER BENIGN LOOKING SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GET A BOOST FROM A STRONG BRANCH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET CURRENTLY AT THE U.S. EAST COAST. IT WILL CAUSE
THE WAVE TO DIG INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT 50W/55W NEXT FEW
DAYS. A STRONG AND DEEP RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESPOND
BY EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA...LEAVING IT IN A VERY
POSITIVE TILT. PR/USVI WILL END UP WITH DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT ALL
LEVELS WITH PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE.

THE RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND STABLE AIR...
MINIMIZING CONVECTION ALL OF THIS WEEK. MEX GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
SHOW POPS THAT ARE TOO HIGH AND WILL BASICALLY KEEP WHAT WE
CURRENTLY HAVE.

SWELLS TO 7 FEET SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO BUOY 43 AND NORTHERN
ZONES IN A FEW HOURS. NO HARD EVIDENCE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT THEIR
IMMINENT ARRIVAL BUT BUOYS BETWEEN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA HAVE HAD
SWELLS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT FOR QUITE AWHILE AND VERIFY THAT THE
MODELS ARE ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
AND ENTIRE FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW PASSING TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT NORTH SWELLS TO ARRIVE IN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. INCREASING WINDS AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TROUGH DIGS AND THE RIDGE BUILDS WILL PROLONG THE SWELLS
TOWARDS PR/USVI NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 85 / 40 40 30 30
STT 77 87 77 86 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
603 AM AST MON NOV 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVED
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRANCH OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL JET THAT WILL CAUSE A LOW TO CUT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND MOVE AS CLOSE AS 19 N 60 W. THIS LOW RETREATS ONLY SLOWLY
DURING THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE OVER CUBA
MAINTAINS NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE UNITED STATES FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER FLORIDA TODAY AND MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. A LOW DIGS SOUTH OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE MID LATITUDE RIDGING
STRETCHES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND...THE LOW
WILL BE NEARLY GONE BY THAT TIME.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN
28 AND 42 NORTH TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST TRADE
WINDS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NEAR 50 WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN...DEVELOPED IN THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS OVER NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE APPROACHED THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED
BEFORE 14/11Z BEGAN DISSIPATING AFTER IT PASSES THROUGH.

A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET WILL CAUSE A CUT OFF LOW TO FORM
JUST EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CARRIED BY PERSISTENT
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPING ACROSS THE
MID-LATITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT
PENETRATE TOO FAR INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO OR YIELD MUCH FOR THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT THE SAME MOISTURE WILL ALSO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY THIS WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY BE ISOLATED AND YIELD VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS.
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND A LOWER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE EAST WILL ALSO GENERATE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS. IN GENERAL...THE GFS THIS WEEK IS NOT SHOWING MID LEVEL
DRYNESS AS PROMINENTLY OR PENETRATING AS FAR DOWN INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AS PREVIOUSLY...BUT NEITHER IS IT SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
OVER 850 MB EITHER. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE
RISK OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...INDEED...EVEN BEYOND THE WEEKEND...WITH MODEST AMOUNTS EVEN
IN THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15/12Z EXCEPT FOR A
FEW BRIEF MVFR EPISODES DUE TO CIGS AT TKPK AND DUE TO VSBYS IN
SOUTHWEST PR. AFT 14/16Z CIGS AT TJMZ MAY ALSO BE MVFR TIL 14/22Z.
LLVL WINDS WILL BE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT
SOMEWHAT LESS AT THE SURFACE AND SUBJECT TO SEA/LAND/BREEZE
INFLUENCES.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL DECREASE VERY SLOWLY TODAY. HIGHER NORTH
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO ALL WATERS VULNERABLE TO NORTHEAST SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 85 74 / 40 50 30 50
STT 86 77 86 77 / 40 30 20 30

[cycloneye]

Gusty,I know you like very much the NBA so go to the Sports forum and see the latest on the NBA Lockout. It looks like no 2011-2012 season.

viewtopic.php?f=17&t=111085&hilit=&p=2205487#p2205487

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 PM AST MON NOV 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT NOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTH AND FURTHER EAST INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
WEAKENING THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST
NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WILL
HELP ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE
MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS. THE GENERAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER FRAGMENTS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOCAL
EFFECTS/OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL FURTHER ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE INTERVALS OF PASSING
SHOWERS BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IN SIGHT
EXCEPT FOR WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS PROPAGATING WESTWARDS ALONG
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED INTERVALS OF PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. DURING
THE DAYTIME THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER SKIES ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS MVFR/IFR
CONDS IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA OVER TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH 11/22Z. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME VCSH AND SCT CLOUDS. LLVL WINDS
FROM THE ENE TO NE WILL REMAIN AT 15-20 KTS. FOR EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAFS SITES WITH A FEW PASSING
-SHRA PSBL ACROSS TJSJ AND TIST/TISX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 74 85 / 50 30 50 50
STT 77 86 76 86 / 40 30 30 30

[Macrocane]

The cold minimum temperatures have continued in most of Central America, these are the observations registered yesterday:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.9°C (64.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.9°C (57.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.6°C (36.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.1°C (62.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.5°C (47.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 17.8°C (64.0°F) Coldest since March 6
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F) Coolest since March 23
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.9°C (40.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.8°C (55.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.1°C (79.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.9°C (85.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.5°C (70.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.8°C (94.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 8.9°C (48.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.3°C (68.5°F)

[Gustywind]

Gusty,I know you like very much the NBA so go to the Sports forum and see the latest on the NBA Lockout. It looks like no 2011-2012 season.

viewtopic.php?f=17&t=111085&hilit=&p=2205487#p2205487

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 PM AST MON NOV 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT NOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTH AND FURTHER EAST INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
WEAKENING THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST
NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WILL
HELP ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE
MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS. THE GENERAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER FRAGMENTS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOCAL
EFFECTS/OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL FURTHER ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE INTERVALS OF PASSING
SHOWERS BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IN SIGHT
EXCEPT FOR WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS PROPAGATING WESTWARDS ALONG
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED INTERVALS OF PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. DURING
THE DAYTIME THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER SKIES ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS MVFR/IFR
CONDS IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA OVER TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH 11/22Z. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME VCSH AND SCT CLOUDS. LLVL WINDS
FROM THE ENE TO NE WILL REMAIN AT 15-20 KTS. FOR EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAFS SITES WITH A FEW PASSING
-SHRA PSBL ACROSS TJSJ AND TIST/TISX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 74 85 / 50 30 50 50
STT 77 86 76 86 / 40 30 30 30

Yeah you're right Cycloneye, i'm a NBA fan i like it . What ??! No NBA season for 2011-2012? if so... it's incredible, a nightmare!!! Waouw let's hope that things will evolve quicker

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST TUE NOV 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
WEAKENING THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST NORTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE
ON SHORE MAINLY AFFECTING NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS SIMILAR AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS. THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO...WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT A
SLIGHT INCREASE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAFS SITES WITH CONTINUED
PASSING -SHRA PSBL ACROSS TJSJ AND TIST/TISX THROUGH 14Z. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS MVFR/IFR CONDS IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA OVER
TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH 22Z. EXPECT LLVL WINDS FROM THE ENE TO NE AT
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...NONE OF THE LOCAL BUOYS ARE REPORTING SCA CONDITIONS
THEREFORE CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF A NNE SWELL LATE TONIGHT...BUT
DUE TO PROBABLE STRONGER WIND CONTAMINATION...THE SWAN MODELS
MAYBE IS OVERESTIMATING THE SIZE OF THE SWELL. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR BUT IT WILL BE ASSOCIATED TO THE COMBINATION OF THE NNE
SWELL AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 30 50 50 40
STT 86 77 86 77 / 30 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST TUE NOV 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND AN INDUCED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NORTHWARDS INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... WILL HELP MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE WILL PULL FURTHER EAST NORTHEAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...THEN SHIFTS WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...MID TO UPPER
RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND TUTT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE AND REINFORCE
THE TUTT NOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE TUTT IS TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND DESTABILIZE THE UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL HELP SET UP A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS AND THUS MAINTAIN THE FREQUENT
TRANSPORT OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECTED INTERVALS OF QUICK PASSING
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE TUTT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THEY QUICKLY PROPAGATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY ACROSS THE ISLANDS...WITH THE MOST OF THE RAINFALL FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS....THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTION OF THE ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE VIRGIN ISLANDS CAN ALSO EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
AND PASSING SHOWERS EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAFS SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS
FROM TIME TO TIME...AND MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS TJSJ AND
TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. MDCRS SOUNDINGS AT 1650Z INDICATED WINDS
FROM THE ENE TO NNE AT 10-25 KTS BTWN SFC-20 KFT...BECOMING NNE AND
STRONGER ABOVE 20 KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 74 85 / 50 50 40 40
STT 76 87 76 87 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST WED NOV 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND AN INDUCED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NORTHWARDS INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN... WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SIGNIFICANT DECREASED ON SHOWER COVERAGE HAVE
OCCUR ED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL REGION WILL TIGHT UP THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
THIS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WINDS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS WIND WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THIS PATTERN OF SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAFS SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME VCSH FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS FROM THE ENE
TO NNE AT 10-15 KTS BTWN SFC-20 KFT...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KTS
AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS IN ADDITION OF NORTHEAST SWELLS MOVING ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND THE ALL LOCAL PASSAGES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GENERATE
CONFUSE SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. PASSING SHOWERS
COULD GENERATE GUSTY CONDITIONS THEREFORE MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 50 40 40 30
STT 86 77 87 77 / 50 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

The pattern of fast moving showers will continue for the next few days. Also,the fresh trade winds will continue.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
347 PM AST WED NOV 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS GUADELOUPE WILL SPAWN A CUT-OFF LOW THAT WILL END UP ABOUT
730 MILES EAST OF SAN JUAN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BEFORE IT CAN LEAVE
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT A SECOND LOW WILL SPAWN ABOUT 650 MILES
NORTHEAST OF AGUADILLA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
UPSTREAM WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY...AFTER
WHICH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OR NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE GULF AND THE BAHAMAS. FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A WEAK TROUGH MOVES AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA. A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NEAR 48 WEST WILL DRIFT TO ABOUT 56 WEST ON
SUNDAY AND FORM A LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE FLOW AND
CAUSE IT TO BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ON THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING AT ABOUT 21
KNOTS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO TODAY. A FEW
HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIFTED WITH THE FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG THE WINDWARD COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE GFS SHOWS MODEST MOISTURE MOVING IN THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WHEREAS THE NAM SHOWS A BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVING IN JUST AFTER 12Z SPREADING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF
THE ISLAND THURSDAY. AGAIN AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH IN THE WETTEST AREA. SHOWERS LESSEN IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT RETURN
WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY NIGHT COINCIDENTAL WITH
THE FORMATION OF A NEW UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ONCE THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH...AFTER THE FIRST OF
THE WEEK...THE TREND APPEARS TO BE DRYING...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS THE ENTIRE WEEK
AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE PRESENT...DO NOT EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD COASTAL PORTIONS OR THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
IN THE SOUTHWEST TO COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAFS SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER THE DOMINANT EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEER PASSING SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLDS
WITH BASES BTW 020-030 KFT ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FROM TIME
TO TIME. SHOWERS AND MAINLY CU/TCU CLDS WILL BE CIRCUMNAVIGABLE
WITH NO MAJOR HAZARDS EXPECTED EN-ROUTE BETWEEN THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF SFC WND
GUSTS OF 25 KTS OR MORE AT AND NR SOME OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES AS
THEY PASS BY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41043 HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT 8 TO 9 FEET
SINCE 16/14Z AS SWELL PULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FORECAST
INHERITED LOOKED GOOD IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS ARE FORECASTING EVEN HIGHER SWELL TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG LOWS IN THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC...THE MID ATLANTIC INVERTED TROUGH AND WINDS
ALONG THE SWELL TRAIN WILL ALL BRING SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 10 FEET IN
THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
TO THE COAST MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 87 74 85 / 60 50 40 40
STT 77 87 77 87 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST THU NOV 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SFC HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF TO THE
EAST AND RIDGE TO THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE ON SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST IMAGES OF THE DOPPLER RADAR. ONLY A
FEW OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT...THEREFORE
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...GENERATING A FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED ON
THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
SEVERAL DAYS...PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EASTERN COASTAL
SECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AND CONVECTIVE
WEATHER ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

INCONSISTENCY ON MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST OF OUR LOCAL REGION...IS GENERATING A COMPLEX FORECAST
FOR THE INCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAFS SITES WITH CONTINUED
PASSING SHRA PSBL IN AND AROUND TJSJ AND TIST/TISX THROUGH AT LEAST
15Z. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR. THIS COULD LEAD TO
MVFR CONDS IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA OVER TJMZ BTWN 17/21Z. LLVL WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL BUOYS ARE REPORTING A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. THE SCA THAT COVERED ALL PASSAGES AND
THE NEAR SHORE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED BUT REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF SHORE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 74 / 30 40 40 30
STT 86 76 87 72 / 30 50 50 20