Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[vbhoutex]

low level circulation moving NW towards the tip of the Yucatan. Blow up of convection right over or real close....

bottom of the screen

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

I see what you are talking about. Are there any surface obs to back up that it is a LLC? Possibly a MLC?
I have to say I noticed it earlier today, but it seemed to be stationary so I kind dismissed it. Now it is obviously moving NW, whatever it is.

[Dean4Storms]

low level circulation moving NW towards the tip of the Yucatan. Blow up of convection right over or real close....

bottom of the screen

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

I see what you are talking about. Are there any surface obs to back up that it is a LLC? Possibly a MLC?
I have to say I noticed it earlier today, but it seemed to be stationary so I kind dismissed it. Now it is obviously moving NW, whatever it is.

Looks to be near 20N 85W and moving more NNW than NW. The convection wrapping it makes it appear to be moving more NW, but if you watch it closely it looks to be NNW to almost due North.

Does look suspicious in that imagery.

[wzrgirl1]

I am having a hard time seeing it. What am I missing?

[ROCK]

I didnt pull any surface obs VB I am sure there are some though...probably a few buoys around as well....I will do some digging.....Hard to tell direction probably right Dean more north than anything...

[Dean4Storms]

Another view of it at the very right edge of the Mathew Floater.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[Terry]

What in sam hill is a "pouch?"

[wzrgirl1]

Another view of it at the very right edge of the Mathew Floater.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I do believe I can see it now. Thanks!!

[Vortex]

If you look closely, I can spot about 3 vorticities spinning along that outer band of the broad low pressure...Epac energy is current moving NE across CA and should enter the Gulf of Honduras by morning..This may be the spark that gets things going around 18/85

[ROCK]

this buoy should be right on our suspect..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[ROCK]

if those winds swing around in the next few hours might have something.....I dunno know...

[wzrgirl1]

OK been logged on to this site for 13 straight hours. Not healthy. Have a good night ya'all. Still think we will have an invest sometime tomorrow. Too much model support not to have it. Until tomorrow.......

[Canelaw99]

NWS Miami Hazardous outlook...You don't see torrential rains used in an outlook very often here...



DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS, BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL, IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
FLOODING WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD

Definitely NOT looking forward to that. At this point, I'd rather have a wind event. We've had SO much rain down here lately that a few days of torrential rain will not be pretty. Gotta make sure I stock up on milk and lunch meat over the next couple days I think.

[otowntiger]

this buoy should be right on our suspect..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

pressure is rising at that bouy.

[btangy]

Airforce recon. is tasked into the system tomorrow, but I don't know if they will go due to lack of organization. The NCAR-GV is also going to do a survey pattern. Should provide a better initialization for at least the ECMWF's 00Z run tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

What in sam hill is a "pouch?"

There is a thread with a sticky up two spaces from this one that has all of what you need to know about it.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109400&p=2071537#p2071537

[Dean4Storms]

if those winds swing around in the next few hours might have something.....I dunno know...

Very suspect with that pressure reading a few hours ago. Like you said if the winds switch around we got something and even if it doesn't it could mean that the circulation is not quite at the surface yet.

[ROCK]

no ships obs in the area.....guess we will watch it....does have some convection to it....a smidge

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

[SFLcane]

Airforce recon. is tasked into the system tomorrow, but I don't know if they will go due to lack of organization. The NCAR-GV is also going to do a survey pattern. Should provide a better initialization for at least the ECMWF's 00Z run tomorrow.

Would not be surprised if recon is cancelled if recent satellite trends continue.

[Vortex]

00Z NAM H30(Tue 2am)...Heavy rains will start spreading North late tomorrow night towards Cuba and the FL straits as the low begins to take shape over the NW carribean..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030l.gif

[Vortex]

H30 200mb ridge sitting right over the NW carribean..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif