ATL: ISAAC - Models

[chris_fit]

going to the gulf.

Not seeing it going to the gulf on this latest GFS run...

[tolakram]

Good grief. So both models agree it will drift west, but do not agree when and where. This could easily get hung up over land and cause catastrophic flooding.

[SouthFLTropics]

going to the gulf.

Are you thinking GOM bound similar to Georges 98' Aric???

SFT

[Bocadude85]

138HR looks like landfall

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical138.gif

[pgoss11]

This storm is crawling

[ROCK]

FL keys not quite to the mainland yet...

[SeminoleWind]

This looks like a west coast Florida rider to me
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=144

[Bocadude85]

144HR over South Florida heading NW

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical144.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

138HR looks like landfall

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical138.gif

Homestead/Florida City on nearly the 20th Anniversary of Andrew...That'll get the South Florida media going.

SFT

[Wx_Warrior]

Another run with another strong ridge (18z gfs).

[Aric Dunn]

150 hours landfall somewhere around SW florida/

[Bocadude85]

162HR riding the west coast of Florida

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical162.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

At 150 hours we are splitting hairs for an exact landfall location. Basically once again the trend is towards a landfall at some location on the southern tip of the peninsula as well as significant impact to the Keys. West Coast, East Coast, or up the spine is all guesses at this point. Angle of attack from that direction means everything. A storm coming in from that direction also leaves no place to run and hide other than to go North. Best to shelter in place if possible.

SFT

[BigB0882]

So the GFS is about 3-4 days faster on landfall (CONUS) but mainly because it has landfall on the tip of Florida. If it did get futher West into the Gulf then it could well match up with the Euro on taking so long to landfall, right? It really goes to a crawl there at the end. I also see the ridge looking strong. I am keeping a close eye on a possible more Westward trend in the next 12-24 hours of the models. I wouldn't be surprised to see this take a NW turn until landfall and never get going N or NE like we would normally assume. NOT A FORECAST.

[ROCK]

then up the west coast of FL....7 days from now.....not sure that is considered short range for the GFS....160 hrs

[ROCK]

At 150 hours we are splitting hairs for an exact landfall location. Basically once again the trend is towards a landfall at some location on the southern tip of the peninsula as well as significant impact to the Keys. West Coast, East Coast, or up the spine is all guesses at this point. Angle of attack from that direction means everything. A storm coming in from that direction also leaves no place to run and hide other than to go North. Best to shelter in place if possible.

SFT

well here in Texas we say "hunker down"....run from the water and hide from the wind...

[JPmia]

yeah that looks like landfall southern tip of FL peninsula then riding up the west coast.. i love the kind of dance around Haiti and Cuba let's see if it survives that.. what concerns me about the GFS is that it has been performing rather well this year.

[Wx_Warrior]

According to that set up, how further west do you think Isaac can go?

[Meteorcane]

This would be the second best scenario other than complete recurvature off the east coast (for the United States, would be bad for the Caribbean Islands), as it would involve a weakened system from significant interaction with the spine of Cuba, making landfall in an unpopulated area of Florida. That being said it is still about 6 days out, so really Isaac could recurve out completely to sea or be a GOM threat, although the weakness in most of the recent model runs does not seem to be very strong, which leads me to believe this certainly could be a U.S. threat.

[SeminoleWind]

According to that set up, how further west do you think Isaac can go?

Cedar Key Looks like were it comes in at on that run but cant be 100% sure