2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Kingarabian]

My amateur opinion is that fronts all the way into the gulf in late July or early August are cause for concern, not signs a season will be a dud. From what I can tell all that's happened when a front enters the gulf this early in the season is that development is delayed, perhaps the 'start' of the heart of the season is delayed but what's left is just more focus for formation. The models may be showing us this now with another gulf storm possible in the long range.

Regardless, I doubt this season will be a complete failure so the question is ... where will the first major form and will it hit land or recurve. The last thing we want is quick in close development.

Assuming the current conditions continue to hold true in the GOM and the caribbean, a Charley type track is likely the only way for a major to hit the CONUS. For a recurve, the MDR will eventually produce the annual recurving hurricane sooner or later.

[Steve]

I disagree King. I think we have every potential with an almost wide open coastline. Not today obviously but intermittently through the season.

[Emmett_Brown]

Growing up, my dad told me that Aug 1 is the real start of hurricane season. For me, anything that happens before Aug 15th is just a "pre season" that has little if any bearing on the remaining season's activity. Just as a freak October snow storm has little to do with the severity of the winter, these early season diversions are fun to track, and pretty much meaningless with regard to the rest of the season. (The exception being 2005, with activity I only expect to see once in my lifetime). This is why I generally think of July 31 as "Hurricane Eve".

Additionally, this year has featured a Bermuda high that has been positioned a bit south of average, often extending inland into the SE US. The recent troughs have interrupted that pattern for the time being, but I would not be surprised to see that pattern return, which leaves the US and GOM open to threats from the east. I'm not trying to hype this season, but I think it's definitely alive and well.

Lastly, I remember everyone bemoaning TD 10 in 2005. It struggled mightily against dry air and shear, and limped toward the Bahamas as a mere wave. Many season cancel posts occurred; frustrated storm trackers bemoaned the lack of activity in late August. Then Katrina was born, and the rest unfortunately is history.

[Kingarabian]

I disagree King. I think we have every potential with an almost wide open coastline. Not today obviously but intermittently through the season.

I agree it's no doubt wide open considering how strong the dominant high pressures forcing everything west. It's just the shear (understandably high at this time of the season and likely to drop sooner or later) and if it were to persist in the GOM and the Caribbean, then we'll need something to track north of the islands since shear has generally been normal there.

If it weren't for the high shear waiting for these systems, we would be having a 2005 redux with all these systems rolling from the MDR into the Caribbean.

[Kingarabian]

Additionally, this year has featured a Bermuda high that has been positioned a bit south of average, often extending inland into the SE US. The recent troughs have interrupted that pattern for the time being, but I would not be surprised to see that pattern return, which leaves the US and GOM open to threats from the east. I'm not trying to hype this season, but I think it's definitely alive and well.

Lastly, I remember everyone bemoaning TD 10 in 2005. It struggled mightily against dry air and shear, and limped toward the Bahamas as a mere wave. Many season cancel posts occurred; frustrated storm trackers bemoaned the lack of activity in late August. Then Katrina was born, and the rest unfortunately is history.

I agree. We could definitely see something coming from the east... That Bermuda high is opening up a lot of possibilities for a destructive hurricane to hit the CONUS. Thankfully shear is still high.

[Kingarabian]

This is how shear looked like on August 20th 2016:



A lot lower than it is now but it's 20 days away. If shear becomes this low and we still have systems moving into the Caribbean, watch out.

[Steve]

I disagree King. I think we have every potential with an almost wide open coastline. Not today obviously but intermittently through the season.

I agree it's no doubt wide open considering how strong the dominant high pressures forcing everything west. It's just the shear (understandably high at this time of the season and likely to drop sooner or later) and if it were to persist in the GOM and the Caribbean, then we'll need something to track north of the islands since shear has generally been normal there.

If it weren't for the high shear waiting for these systems, we would be having a 2005 redux with all these systems rolling from the MDR into the Caribbean.

Agreed. Hopefully shear or troughs or something partially mitigate the potential. We don't need a high ACE year in a western biased year. One thing I've noticed has been the lack of circular upper level lows this season. We get those more in La Nina seasons than El Ninos because the troughs split and pieces cut off. Sometimes they aid, sometimes they hinder.

[TheStormExpert]

Decided to go back and look through the CIMSS archives to see what shear was like on this day and time last year and overall things at the moment look a good deal better shear-wise when compared to last year on 00UTC August 1st. I'll also put 2004, 2005, 2010, 2011, and 2012 just for references.

00UTC August 1st, 2016


00UTC August 1st, 2017


00UTC August 1st, 2004


00UTC August 1st, 2005


00UTC August 1st, 2010


00UTC August 1st, 2011


00UTC August 1st, 2012

[TheStormExpert]

SAL is overall heavier than years like 2004, 2008, 2010, or even last year for August 1st. But one year that sticks out featuring the most SAL even somewhat more so than now was 2005.

06UTC August 1st, 2004


00UTC August 1st, 2005


00UTC August 1st, 2008


00UTC August 1st, 2010


00UTC August 1st, 2016


00UTC August 1st, 2017

[Emmett_Brown]

SAL can be a blessing and a curse. It can suppress storm formation, but this suppression can also delay a strong wave from eventually strengthening until it gets far enough west to reach land. (2005 Katrina is a notorious example)

[Dylan]

SAL is overall heavier than years like 2004, 2008, 2010, or even last year for August 1st. But one year that sticks out featuring the most SAL even somewhat more so than now was 2005.

You're comparing apples to oranges, and peaches, and maybe something else too.

At least 3 of those different years for SAL were measured by different satellites. The images were probably derived differently, with different algorithms, and with different resolution.

Every year is different, some years might be different, but not the same. If you are looking for absolutes and exact answers, Meteorology & Climatology is not a field you want to be in.

[gatorcane]

We are now going up the steep ramp of Atlantic hurricane activity looking at climatology:

[Ntxw]

Yes! Now is the time to start racking up ACE as the averages begins to pick up (of course preferably picturesque fish storms that misses everybody). Still looks week 2 to week 3 may deliver more action. Quick spinups between now and then like Emily otherwise.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/892384404303220737

[Alyono]

have to say it, this Kelvin Wave appears as if it will be a "nothing burger". No sign of anything in the models any longer

at what latitude do these Kelvin waves traverse? I need to read the study, but is there a greater correlation in the Pacific vs the Atlantic?

[PTrackerLA]

Models do look very quiet today August 1st, but I believe we have another week at least to wait to see activity pick up in the models.

[SFLcane]

There's still plenty of time it's (Aug1st) by this weekend or sometime next week models should show things picking up. Patience

[otowntiger]

Interesting that the models are so empty on any development for, what, the next 2-3 weeks? That can't be common for August. I realize that the peak is not here yet but one would think we'd start to see some hints. Admittedly I don't believe you can still trust the models beyond a week, but still there must be a reason or multiple reasons why things look to be so quiet. Of course its still somewhat early but if in another 2 or 3 weeks things are still like they are, then I believe revisiting season predictions may be in order, but not until then.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Why is everything so quiet on the models the next few weeks? It seems like shear lessens some, and waves still seem somewhat strong. Atlantic has been struggling outside of a few storms for a long time now. At least west of 70 they have been.

[Kingarabian]

I remember the GFS showing nothing for 16 days and then the next run it had Matthew.