ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I would like to see some more discussion from the NHC on the inhibiting factors for organization. The GFS and Euro are not developing but yet when you read the NHC discussion, no mention of inhibiting factors or why the huge difference between the hurricane models and the GFS and Euro. Yet there is something because no way those two models miss this bad in the timeframe we are talking.

[DestinHurricane]

I would like to see some more discussion from the NHC on the inhibiting factors for organization. The GFS and Euro are not developing but yet when you read the NHC discussion, no mention of inhibiting factors or why the huge difference between the hurricane models and the GFS and Euro.

The conditions are expected to be very conductive for development past Pourto Rico. NHC has a cat 1 and they admit that it's conservative. They note in the last discussion that if it avoids land interaction it will likely exceed the current intensity forecast.

NHC>Models.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the ASCAT and resolution, this is probably 35 kt...but an open trough.

[AutoPenalti]

I would like to see some more discussion from the NHC on the inhibiting factors for organization. The GFS and Euro are not developing but yet when you read the NHC discussion, no mention of inhibiting factors or why the huge difference between the hurricane models and the GFS and Euro. Yet there is something because no way those two models miss this bad timeframe we are talking.

Normally discussions would include something along the lines of “...it is still uncertain how strong TD13 will be by the time it reaches the Bahamas” or “...it is unclear how favorable the environment will be for TD13”

[CrazyC83]

I would like to see some more discussion from the NHC on the inhibiting factors for organization. The GFS and Euro are not developing but yet when you read the NHC discussion, no mention of inhibiting factors or why the huge difference between the hurricane models and the GFS and Euro.

The conditions are expected to be very conductive for development past Pourto Rico. NHC has a cat 1 and they admit that it's conservative.

NHC>Models.

That's correct. The vortex just needs to get there first - models suggested a weaker system may just bump into the islands. That said, TD 14 could be muddying up the waters.

[Blown Away]

Something going to give with TD13, very little support from GFS/Euro and strange very close proximity to TD14 At landfall. I’m thinking TD13 will never become more than a weak system or there will be some down allowing TD14 to get out and maybe TD13 stays E of FL...

[Sanibel]

The Euro is operating within its failure margin and therefore outputting faulty data...

It is failing to process intensity climo in that area on that track...

It will get on board in a couple of days...

There's a clear surface feature on satellite that shouldn't be down-played...

[DestinHurricane]

I would like to see some more discussion from the NHC on the inhibiting factors for organization. The GFS and Euro are not developing but yet when you read the NHC discussion, no mention of inhibiting factors or why the huge difference between the hurricane models and the GFS and Euro. Yet there is something because no way those two models miss this bad timeframe we are talking.

Normally discussions would include something along the lines of “...it is still uncertain how strong TD13 will be by the time it reaches the Bahamas” or “...it is unclear how favorable the environment will be for TD13”

"The environment consisting of light to moderate vertical wind shear
is expected to allow for gradual strengthening over the next few
days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical
storm later today or tonight. The upper-level wind pattern is
expected to remain favorable in the latter portion of the forecast
period, and if there is minimal land interaction, a faster rate of
strengthening is possible at that time. The NHC intensity foreast
now shows the system becoming a hurricane by 96 hours, but it is a
little lower than the consensus aids at days 4 and 5 due to
uncertainty in how much the system will interact with the Greater
Antilles."

[supercane4867]

I see no signs of dissipation. There is probably another LLC forming under the convection or at least one will form in the near future.

[AutoPenalti]

I would like to see some more discussion from the NHC on the inhibiting factors for organization. The GFS and Euro are not developing but yet when you read the NHC discussion, no mention of inhibiting factors or why the huge difference between the hurricane models and the GFS and Euro. Yet there is something because no way those two models miss this bad timeframe we are talking.

Normally discussions would include something along the lines of “...it is still uncertain how strong TD13 will be by the time it reaches the Bahamas” or “...it is unclear how favorable the environment will be for TD13”

"The environment consisting of light to moderate vertical wind shear
is expected to allow for gradual strengthening over the next few
days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical
storm later today or tonight. The upper-level wind pattern is
expected to remain favorable in the latter portion of the forecast
period, and if there is minimal land interaction, a faster rate of
strengthening is possible at that time. The NHC intensity foreast
now shows the system becoming a hurricane by 96 hours, but it is a
little lower than the consensus aids at days 4 and 5 due to
uncertainty in how much the system will interact with the Greater
Antilles."

Nothing about the supposed unfavorable conditions, so I guess NHC sees something we don’t. Thank goodness for that.

[Nuno]

Hmm, its almost like developing cyclones sometimes pulse up and down and sometimes struggle or open up. I wonder where I've seen this happen before...

[AxaltaRacing24]

Hmm, its almost like developing cyclones sometimes pulse up and down and sometimes struggle or open up. I wonder where I've seen this happen before...

i remember when people even declared dorian an open wave for a day when it passed hispaniola.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks like the center is roughly 53.8W & 17.1N. Still there.

Woops had wrong coordinates. Fixed.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis

[TallyTracker]

That ASCAT is pretty conclusive. This is a sharp wave axis. NHC won’t downgrade it right now since land impacts are imminent. I still think a circulation will come back, but It really seems to be struggling today.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the center is roughly 54.3W & 17.1N. Still there.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis

yeah,

well defined and bending back towards the wnw as models pointed out..

convection should return soon.

easily trackable.

[Sanibel]

That ASCAT is pretty conclusive. This is a sharp wave axis. NHC won’t downgrade it right now since land impacts are imminent. I still think a circulation will come back, but It really seems to be struggling today.

It's missing the center which is clearly visible on visible satellite...

Spiral with tight center...

[Aric Dunn]

That ASCAT is pretty conclusive. This is a sharp wave axis. NHC won’t downgrade it right now since land impacts are imminent. I still think a circulation will come back, but It really seems to be struggling today.

The ASCAT is full of ambiguities and the NHC already used that very ASCAT to confirm it 5 hours ago.

[gfsperpendicular]

Hmm, its almost like developing cyclones sometimes pulse up and down and sometimes struggle or open up. I wonder where I've seen this happen before...

i remember when people even declared dorian an open wave for a day when it passed hispaniola.

I was reading the Dorian thread recently and it's a lot of the same people.

[SFLcane]

I see an outflow boundary moving away from what WAS that weak vortex. Vortex is gone, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/Thirteen4.JPG

Just bring out Bones..

[Aric Dunn]

New tower firing right on the SE quad of the LLC.. lets see how well it builds up.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined