ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Any latest news on the Recon?

You keep asking and we keep answering. Recon leaves in a little less than an hour. Another one leaves this evening.

At least we will be able to see the REAL intensity.

[Andy_L]

EDIT:


Eye temp.?

You are not going to get a good estimation of eye temp until a VDM so it's probably useless to keep asking.

Aspen figured it out.

How about asking him how he figured it out then, rather than asking: eye temp? 3 times every page....

[supercane4867]

[wx98]

Any latest news on the Recon?

Please be patient. I can sense your enthusiasm for this storm but it is filling up the thread with the same questions over and over.

[NotoSans]

Goni in WPAC a few days ago also exhibited a pinhole eye, and Himawari-8 was still able to resolve a WMG eye.

GOES-16 has the same IR resolution as Himawari-8 (both 2km) and there seems no major viewing angle issue. Eye temperature, of course, will still be slightly undersampled given it is still a pinhole eye, but I doubt the difference will be that significant.

[SouthDadeFish]

AMSU came in with a 134 kt intensity estimate at 1437 UTC:

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
HURRICANE ETA
Monday 02nov20 Time: 1437 UTC
Latitude: 14.75 Longitude: -81.41
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 26 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 930 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 134 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -18.4 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.03
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.82
Channel 6 (~350 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.00
RMW: 9 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1008 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-90
ATCF data for Month: 11 Day: 02 Time (UTC): 1200

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

[cheezyWXguy]

Assuming recon departs on time, what would be time of arrival at the storm?

[Iceresistance]

You are not going to get a good estimation of eye temp until a VDM so it's probably useless to keep asking.

Aspen figured it out.

How about asking him how he figured it out then, rather than asking: eye temp? 3 times every page....

I'm trying to figure out how strong the storm is, latest Windy.com Satellite show eye temp of -37C, it's hard to pinpoint the real temp. because of how small it is.

[Iceresistance]

AMSU came in with a 134 kt intensity estimate at 1437 UTC:

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
HURRICANE ETA
Monday 02nov20 Time: 1437 UTC
Latitude: 14.75 Longitude: -81.41
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 26 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 930 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 134 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -18.4 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.03
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.82
Channel 6 (~350 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.00
RMW: 9 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1008 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-90
ATCF data for Month: 11 Day: 02 Time (UTC): 1200

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

That is 155 mph!

[wx98]

Assuming recon departs on time, what would be time of arrival at the storm?

I would think about 2-2.5 hours after they leave at least before the first center pass. It is a long way down there.

[supercane4867]

I'd go with AMSU on current intensity. 135kt seems about right.

[HurricaneEnzo]

AMSU came in with a 134 kt intensity estimate at 1437 UTC:

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
HURRICANE ETA
Monday 02nov20 Time: 1437 UTC
Latitude: 14.75 Longitude: -81.41
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 26 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 930 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 134 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -18.4 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.03
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.82
Channel 6 (~350 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.00
RMW: 9 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1008 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-90
ATCF data for Month: 11 Day: 02 Time (UTC): 1200

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

That's more like it!

[Iceresistance]

I'd go with AMSU on current intensity. 135kt seems about right.

135 knots is 155 mph! Very close to CAT 5 & stronger than Laura!

[aspen]

115 kt/948 mbar Cat 4 in the 18z best track!

[Iceresistance]

115 kt/948 mbar Cat 4 in the 18z best track!

130 mph when 115 knots is converted. I'd say 135 mph & 945 MB

[cheezyWXguy]

I'd go with AMSU on current intensity. 135kt seems about right.

Is there any potential that AMSU is underestimating due to the size of the eye? Given -80C cloud tops, and a tendency for satellite intensity to lag recon in these cases (I.e. Delta), my personal inclination would be to tack on another 10kt. Doesn’t really matter at this point though. Recon will tell the tale

[cycloneye]

Let's not continue to ask when recon will go to not have this thread filled with this question many times. A plane or two will fly in the next few hours so let's be patient.

[Jr0d]

Those who are a fan of the ACE value are probably going crazy with the underestimated intensity. Maybe if the will go back in their post seasin analysis and adjust.

Its unfortunate that there is no recon, regardless those in the warning areas should be well advised that they are dealing with an extremely intense storm.

I am curious to how the surf looks down in Costa Rica and Panama. This is a rare swell angle for them.

[supercane4867]

I'd go with AMSU on current intensity. 135kt seems about right.

Is there any potential that AMSU is underestimating due to the size of the eye? Given -80C cloud tops, and a tendency for satellite intensity to lag recon in these cases (I.e. Delta), my personal inclination would be to tack on another 10kt. Doesn’t really matter at this point though. Recon will tell the tale

Margin of error is 12kts. So actual intensity could be as high as 145-150kt

[Keldeo1997]

Radar beam going up to 20K feet and still showing a well defined eyewall