ATL: ETA - Models

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1081 Postby SFLcane » Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:21 pm

Cat5James wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Gfs and the 18z euro still develop this and take it towards Florida. Not sure what took place on the 00z guidance

HMON as well... only model I saw drop it was the HWRF... what are we missing?


Icon,cmc, coamps,Hmon, gfs, euro. plus ensembles
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1082 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:22 pm

Still tagged with the old LLC, MLC is still traceable.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1083 Postby Blown Away » Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:22 pm

SFLcane wrote:Gfs and the 18z euro still develop this and take it towards Florida. Not sure what took place on the 00z guidance

:double:


Where do you get the 06/18z EURO runs?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1084 Postby fci » Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:22 pm



NHC did say their official track is west of the model consensus
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1085 Postby fci » Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:26 pm

Nuno wrote:


Can't really recall any late season storm taking such a strange approach to Florida.


King in 1950 has been mentioned quite a bit as an analog. It was mid-October.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1086 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:31 pm

That guidance checks out, seems like it will tangle with the mountains, but may split into two. Which is what HWRF might have been suggesting earlier. Which may explain the abrupt ending in some of the noodle models.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1087 Postby Spacecoast » Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:37 pm

Cat5James wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Gfs and the 18z euro still develop this and take it towards Florida. Not sure what took place on the 00z guidance

HMON as well... only model I saw drop it was the HWRF... what are we missing?


Compare 0z AVNI track to previous 18z AVNI track, which did not go into EPAC. HWFI also is less bullish on re-emerging.
Since TVCN is Consensus of AVNI / HWFI /CTCI / EMXI, this drastic change in AVNI caused a substanstial change to TVCN, which in turn MAY cause a change in OFCL, depending on whether NHC believes this change in AVNI (previous cycle GFS).
They probably will not change anything based on one run.

Some of these models are treating whatever emerges N of Honduras as a separate, (non-Eta) system, and continue to call whatever goes into EPAC... Eta.
Last edited by Spacecoast on Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1088 Postby gatorcane » Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:48 pm

I think we really need to see what, if anything, ends up in the NW Caribbean in a couple of days before we can really start putting weight into these models. Something tells me the 15 inches or rain for South Florida might be highly exaggerated. We should know more Friday,
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1089 Postby SFLcane » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:02 pm

Blown Away wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Gfs and the 18z euro still develop this and take it towards Florida. Not sure what took place on the 00z guidance

:double:


Where do you get the 06/18z EURO runs?


18z euro...

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1090 Postby Blown Away » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:21 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Gfs and the 18z euro still develop this and take it towards Florida. Not sure what took place on the 00z guidance

:double:


Where do you get the 06/18z EURO runs?


18z euro...

https://i.postimg.cc/sxg0x5FL/4-E8-AB090-0-EF3-4084-A2-FF-8-E64-F5-D0-DD86.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/y8ZpDV57/58089240-5093-45-FD-B63-C-332587-C62-CEE.jpg


Quite a few Cat 1/2 ensembles.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1091 Postby SFLcane » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:25 pm

Blown Away wrote:


Quite a few Cat 1/2 ensembles.


Still confused with the 00z guidance.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1092 Postby Blown Away » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:28 pm

SFLcane wrote:


Still confused with the 00z guidance.


Yeah, not sure I’ve ever seen such a sudden change like this. Look at the satellite loop you can see all the disturbed weather brewing in the NW Caribbean, looks just like what many of models were showing.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1093 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:31 pm

We’ll find out in half an hour what the nhc thinks of the 0z guidance.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1094 Postby Spacecoast » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:32 pm

Blown Away wrote:


Quite a few Cat 1/2 ensembles.

Most are 40-50 kt, one member 50-70kt. Still seems like TS / min Cat1 on 18z ensembles.
Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1095 Postby Spacecoast » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:36 pm

SFLcane wrote:


Still confused with the 00z guidance.

Spacecoast wrote:
Cat5James wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Gfs and the 18z euro still develop this and take it towards Florida. Not sure what took place on the 00z guidance

HMON as well... only model I saw drop it was the HWRF... what are we missing?


Some of these models are treating whatever emerges N of Honduras as a separate, (non-Eta) system, and continue to call whatever goes into EPAC... Eta
Compare 0z AVNI track to previous 18z AVNI track, which did not go into EPAC. HWFI also is less bullish on re-emerging.
Since TVCN is Consensus of AVNI / HWFI /CTCI / EMXI, this drastic change in AVNI caused a substanstial change to TVCN, which in turn MAY cause a change in OFCL, depending on whether NHC believes this change in AVNI (previous cycle GFS).
They probably will not change anything based on one run.
.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1096 Postby chaser1 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:44 pm

Cat5James wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Gfs and the 18z euro still develop this and take it towards Florida. Not sure what took place on the 00z guidance

HMON as well... only model I saw drop it was the HWRF... what are we missing?


Maybe initialization? Been busy working all day but after a very quick glance at Eta, I'm seeing a very large gyre way over NW Nicaragua moving essentially westward. This system would need to begin a pretty sharp NW motion to wind up north of Honduras on Friday. Other possibility is what GFS-Para was showing days ago, where a separate vorticity borne of convective maximum developed east of Central America. As pressures fill over land, this is a possibility (though not one I've seen happen).
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1097 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:49 pm

I remember seeing a jump out to the coast on the gfs a couple days ago
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1098 Postby SFLcane » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:11 pm

00z icon a bit stronger and north through 57hrs.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models Cr

#1099 Postby caneseddy » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:24 pm

    ICON has an intensifying hurricane right off Miami at 96 hours

    Borderline cat 1/2 landfall into Fort Lauderdale and exiting into the Gulf over Fort Myers
    Last edited by caneseddy on Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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    Re: ATL: ETA - Models

    #1100 Postby NDG » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:26 pm

    Image
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