Texas Winter 2024-2025

Winter Weather Discussion

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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1081 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Dec 28, 2024 10:43 am

wxman57 wrote:It appears that the increased height of my Canadian border wall did not make it into the 00Z EC run. That'll be fixed for the 12Z run. Meanwhile, my pilot has been advised to prepare my private jet for a possible quick escape the morning of the 8th.


Storm2k Wxman57's Great Arctic Evacuation Watch

**Issued by Storm2k**

*Date:* Saturday, December 28, 2024

*Time:* 09:44 AM CST

**Summary:**
Winter is coming! An arctic airmass looks to possibly invade Texas, and our very own Wxman57, who absolutely despises the cold, is preparing to pack up and head for warmer pastures.

**Watch Information:**

- **Affected Areas:** All of Texas

- **Start Time:** 06:00 PM CST, December 28, 2024

- **End Time:** Whenever Wxman57 deems it warm enough to return

**Wxman57's Recommendations:**

- **Evacuate:** If Wxman57 can't handle the cold, neither should you! Find somewhere warm and cozy to ride this out.

- **Stay Informed:** Follow Wxman57’s accurate updates for the latest info.

- **Prepare Your Home:** Make sure your heater works, pipes are insulated, and you have plenty of hot cocoa.

- **Emergency Supplies:** Stock up on blankets, fuzzy socks, snacks, and anything that makes you forget it’s freezing outside.

- **Travel:** No need for those epic bike rides until the thaw. Stick to cozy indoor activities.

**Safety Tips:**

- **Dress in Layers:**
Think of yourself as a fashionable onion—layer up to stay warm.

- **Check on Vulnerable Neighbors:**
Make sure your grandma has enough blankets and your friend with the broken heater isn't turning into an ice cube.

- **Pets:** Don't forget to keep your furry friends warm and inside.

**Additional Information:**

Wxman57 will keep you updated. Stay tuned to Storm2k for the latest. We will upgrade to a warning if conditions warrant it.
Last edited by HockeyTx82 on Sat Dec 28, 2024 10:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1082 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Dec 28, 2024 10:48 am

I used Copilot for the above post. The first one was way too professional, I had to tell it make it funny or you all would have banned me for posting what looked like a real but fake weather watch, Hahahha
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1083 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Dec 28, 2024 10:53 am

Sounds like 57 is all in. :froze:
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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1084 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Dec 28, 2024 10:57 am

gpsnowman wrote:Sounds like 57 is all in. :froze:


So were the Dallas Cowboys, per Jerry Jones, and we all know how that worked out......... :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1085 Postby Tireman4 » Sat Dec 28, 2024 11:00 am

Not to put a damper on this Winter fun, but we have upcoming situation for Eastern part of Texas, eastern Houston Metro eastward into the Gulf States. Readings, for those areas ( central Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama) are pretty stout. The spin rate is concerning with a howling low level jet at 45 to 50kt, high PWATS and an strong onshore flow, coupled with a surface low making its way from Central Texas. There is a chance for long track tornadoes later.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1086 Postby wxman22 » Sat Dec 28, 2024 11:10 am

Harp.1 wrote:This place is quiet considering what may be on the horizon… :cold:


It will get more busy once we see some consistency in the model runs. :wink:
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1087 Postby Brent » Sat Dec 28, 2024 11:13 am

All those times the Euro never showed any cold air and it has temperatures below zero here... :cold: :eek: :double: that's pretty eye opening

Not that I expect it to verify exactly this far out but it just shows the potential
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1088 Postby wxman22 » Sat Dec 28, 2024 11:17 am

Brent wrote:All those times the Euro never showed any cold air or the meme how the GFS CMC cheat and copy it and it has temperatures below zero here... :cold: :eek: :double: that's pretty eye opening

Not that I expect it to verify exactly this far out but it just shows the potential


Yeah I think this is the first time all season that the Euro has shown a legit arctic outbreak.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1089 Postby cajungal » Sat Dec 28, 2024 11:19 am

Just hope we get more than just a glancing blow here in Louisiana. And all the cold is not just centered on the east coast. Would be nice to get some snow instead of just the dry cold we always seem to get.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1090 Postby Wthrfan » Sat Dec 28, 2024 11:34 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It appears that the increased height of my Canadian border wall did not make it into the 00Z EC run. That'll be fixed for the 12Z run. Meanwhile, my pilot has been advised to prepare my private jet for a possible quick escape the morning of the 8th.


Storm2k Wxman57's Great Arctic Evacuation Watch

**Issued by Storm2k**

*Date:* Saturday, December 28, 2024

*Time:* 09:44 AM CST

**Summary:**
Winter is coming! An arctic airmass looks to possibly invade Texas, and our very own Wxman57, who absolutely despises the cold, is preparing to pack up and head for warmer pastures.

**Watch Information:**

- **Affected Areas:** All of Texas

- **Start Time:** 06:00 PM CST, December 28, 2024

- **End Time:** Whenever Wxman57 deems it warm enough to return

**Wxman57's Recommendations:**

- **Evacuate:** If Wxman57 can't handle the cold, neither should you! Find somewhere warm and cozy to ride this out.

- **Stay Informed:** Follow Wxman57’s accurate updates for the latest info.

- **Prepare Your Home:** Make sure your heater works, pipes are insulated, and you have plenty of hot cocoa.

- **Emergency Supplies:** Stock up on blankets, fuzzy socks, snacks, and anything that makes you forget it’s freezing outside.

- **Travel:** No need for those epic bike rides until the thaw. Stick to cozy indoor activities.

**Safety Tips:**

- **Dress in Layers:**
Think of yourself as a fashionable onion—layer up to stay warm.

- **Check on Vulnerable Neighbors:**
Make sure your grandma has enough blankets and your friend with the broken heater isn't turning into an ice cube.

- **Pets:** Don't forget to keep your furry friends warm and inside.

**Additional Information:**

Wxman57 will keep you updated. Stay tuned to Storm2k for the latest. We will upgrade to a warning if conditions warrant it.


I enjoy your sense of humor!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1091 Postby jasons2k » Sat Dec 28, 2024 11:39 am

Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1034 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas... West central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1100 AM CST.

* At 1033 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Pattison, or near Brookshire, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Waller and west central Harris Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1092 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 28, 2024 11:40 am

Models are coming into agreement stormy weather continues, then large scale trough dives in after the 5th. Closer to the 10th a cold blast is in line on most of them, matter of how cold. Too far out to settle what kind of precip comes with it. Caveat is with the blocked pattern, sometimes models don't see how they truly play out in reality, waves of cold before the big one. Still might be middle Jan or later for us if they are rushing it.

Meanwhile severe weather outbreak in eastern TX today, stay safe. These systems have been quite strong.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1093 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Dec 28, 2024 11:44 am

Ntxw wrote:Models are coming into agreement stormy weather continues, then large scale trough dives in after the 5th. Closer to the 10th a cold blast is in line on most of them, matter of how cold. Too far out to settle what kind of precip comes with it.

Meanwhile severe weather outbreak in eastern TX today, stay safe. These systems have been quite strong.

Seems like these storms the past few days have been over performing. I've been lucky enough to be under them.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1094 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 28, 2024 11:45 am

gpsnowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Models are coming into agreement stormy weather continues, then large scale trough dives in after the 5th. Closer to the 10th a cold blast is in line on most of them, matter of how cold. Too far out to settle what kind of precip comes with it.

Meanwhile severe weather outbreak in eastern TX today, stay safe. These systems have been quite strong.

Seems like these storms the past few days have been over performing. I've been lucky enough to be under them.


They have been going much further south than models have shown. Tapping into much more instability, this is true even 24-48 hours out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1095 Postby Harp.1 » Sat Dec 28, 2024 11:48 am

Looks like the trough digs further east this run. :cry:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1096 Postby cajungal » Sat Dec 28, 2024 11:49 am

Harp.1 wrote:Looks like the trough digs further east this run. :cry:

Comment I just made earlier about it going further east
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1097 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 28, 2024 11:55 am

gpsnowman wrote:Sounds like 57 is all in. :froze:


No, all I'm seeing are hints of cold the week after next. Last week, all the cold was coming down around the 4th. The 12Z GFS only has a moderate cold front moving through around the 7th. Not even a freeze in Houston. 500mb pattern in the 12Z GFS is way, way different from the 00Z EC. It's too far out to be concerned about extreme cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1098 Postby jasons2k » Sat Dec 28, 2024 12:01 pm

Storm west of Conroe starting to rotate now. These storms want to start spinning quickly as soon as these updrafts pop high enough. Need to keep a close watch folks, these are nasty cells.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1099 Postby Harp.1 » Sat Dec 28, 2024 12:04 pm

The inconsistency of the GFS is mind blowing
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1100 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Dec 28, 2024 12:07 pm

jasons2k wrote:Storm west of Conroe starting to rotate now. These storms want to start spinning quickly as soon as these updrafts pop high enough. Need to keep a close watch folks, these are nasty cells.

Warned storm near cypress did appear to have a tornado on the ground based on cc but doesn’t look to anymore. Could change again though, these storms aren’t playing
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