Tropical Storm Alberto

[Brent]

Random Question:

What is WITH the "X Trap" model? It always seems to be a creepishly straight line. And not just with this storm. I'm talking with EVERY storm.

Simply an extrapoliation of current motion. Not a model.

[Cyclenall]

Random Question:

What is WITH the "X Trap" model? It always seems to be a creepishly straight line. And not just with this storm. I'm talking with EVERY storm.

Yeah, I want this answered as well because it's always wrong every time. It's the same as a blind person reading a normal book.

As someone said earlier, the NHC has Alberto getting stronger, not dieing off tomorrow morning. 50 knots is the forcasted peak which is higher then the last advisory. Hurricane Alberto still a 20% of it happening .

[jaxfladude]

Just some soaking rain please, Alberto, when and IF you come over my area(Jax, FL.)

[stormtruth]

What's that red dot? lol

That's Alberto ready to intensify. You can also see it here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

[slosh]

What does the large flare up of convection over the yucatan mean for Alberto? Is it related convection or a separate entity?

[Swimdude]

Random Question:

What is WITH the "X Trap" model? It always seems to be a creepishly straight line. And not just with this storm. I'm talking with EVERY storm.

Simply an extrapoliation of current motion. Not a model.

Ahhh makes excellent sense. No one had explained that before. Thanks!

[HurricaneHunter914]

That red dot is really close to the center, this will probably help strengthen "Alberto". But shear in front of the"Alberto" will weaken him.

[28_Storms]

That red dot is really close to the center, this will probably help strengthen "Alberto". But shear in front of the"Alberto" will weaken him.

shear is forecasted to relax.

[curtadams]

What is the intensity predicted by the GFDL?

Borderline hurricane at landfall. Weakens briefly over south GA, then strengthens to a Cat 2 hurricane while inland over GA and to Cat 3 just before heading out to sea from N. Carolina.
I am not kidding! GFDL winds
Not that I believe it, of course - there has to be something wrong with the GFDL model in this situation.

[HurricaneHunter914]

NOW THAT'S CRAZY TALK!

[jaxfladude]

Random Question:

What is WITH the "X Trap" model? It always seems to be a creepishly straight line. And not just with this storm. I'm talking with EVERY storm.

Simply an *extrapolation* of current motion. Not a model.

Do not worry about that, I too got confused at first by it.....*extrapolation* as spelled by SpelCheckTM

[JonathanBelles]

wow

[28_Storms]

Thanks for posting! I thought TC's needed water not land to gain strength

[Stratosphere747]

What is the intensity predicted by the GFDL?

Borderline hurricane at landfall. Weakens briefly over south GA, then strengthens to a Cat 2 hurricane while inland over GA and to Cat 3 just before heading out to sea from N. Carolina.
I am not kidding! GFDL winds
Not that I believe it, of course - there has to be something wrong with the GFDL model in this situation.

Noted by Stewert in the disco that the GFDL was a shade off....

[28_Storms]

No kidding

[mempho]

I just looked at the wunderground tracking site, and I see they have changed some of the paths of the computer models, a few into the NO area... Why the change ?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

From my understanding, a jog north would actually be good. A few of the models hint at this possibility, but that jog north would put it into the dry air and would likely dissapate the storm and it would actually help in that it would provide some needed rain in the northern gulf. If it takes this path, I think it will be compeletely harmless with no chance of intensification and it will probably just be a TD or tropical wave by landfall.

[beachbum_al]

Now it is picking up and the computer models are showing it going more to the N?
Also I think I read S. Georgia...any info...my inlaws live in S. Georgia.

[cmdebbie]

I went to the grocery store today in Deltona (north of Orlando) while visiting my brother and I could not believe what I found........hardly any paper goods left, water running short, bread, etc. Well, they guy in line in front of me was on his cell phone and I heard him say "this store is packed, I guess it is because of the hurricane that is coming here." I had been at my neice's dance recital all day and needless-to-say after hearing that comment could not wait to get to the nearest computer. That just goes to show what a Storm 2K addict I have become.

Now, if people will just take these storms as seriously when the big ones are coming.......

[CHRISTY]

[caneman]

watching it closely. moving NE an away from shear. Waiting for a last minue blow up. Seen it happen too many times before to ever take a system lightly