ATL: IKE Discussion

[dhweather]

From the Houston NWS - Hurricane Local Statement

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDE LEVELS REPORTED AT 1030-1100 AM CDT:
HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL/BATTLESHIP TEXAS - 4.2 FEET
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE - 4.0 FEET
ROLLOVER PASS - 4.5 FEET
EAGLE POINT - 5.2 FEET
MORGANS POINT - 4.5 FEET
NORTH JETTY - 6.8 FEET
PIER 21 - 6.4 FEET
PLEASURE PIER - 8.3 FEET
FREEPORT - 6.6 FEET
PORT O'CONNOR - 3.3 FEET

WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING VERY RAPIDLY BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM AS
THE STORM SURGE SPREADS ONTO THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS. MAXIMUM
STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM
AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES
OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...4 TO 7 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...3 TO 5 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO
SAN LUIS PASS...8 TO 14 FEET

GALVESTON ISLAND......14 TO 17 FEET

BOLIVAR PENINSULA...17 TO 20 FEET

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
BAYSHORE AREAS!

NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY
ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD
OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN
SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES FACE THE POSSIBILITY OF DEATH.
MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL
BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE
IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT
AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY
THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF.
WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND.
COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE
DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION.
DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

[PhillyWX]

When does the NHC start going with bulletins every 2 hours?
I thought that they did this when a storm was close in.

When landfall is imminent. Probably will have advisories every 2 hours starting at 5 ET...definitely at 11 ET.

[cpdaman]

like i posted earlier the 230 high tide will send everyone who planned on staying (near the coast) a message loud and clear, and thankfully like someone else said the winds are not too high to prevent rescue helicopters from picking up those that stayed near shore. this will be ike's final warning to those near the coast, when i read some of the people at the coastal joint... "poop's bar" saying they were staying i was saddened, hopefully they have enough rescue choppers available to pick everyone up, i have a feeling a large % of coastal resident who wanted to stay are /or will be changing there mind's as they experience this afternoon's high tide and it may dawn on them (knowing ike is still one full high tide cycle away from hitting) they need to leave.

i will check back later this evening, hopefully ike has some dry air entrain him and he doesn't get 2 wrap that very deep convection around the eye. stay safe

[CrazyC83]

When does the NHC start going with bulletins every 2 hours?
I thought that they did this when a storm was close in.

When the eye appears on radar, they go to 2-hour updates with odd-hour position estimates.

[Cape Verde]

I know it's too early to be certain, but the exact location of landfall is critical to me. I'm west of downtown by about 30 miles. Speaking only of my situation, I'd want the eye to miss me on the east. I realize that if it just misses me to the east, that's the worst case scenario for the most people, and I'm certainly not hoping for that, either.

But I'll feel a lot better when someone can confidently state where landfall will occur. Depending on which side of my house takes the brunt, I'll be moving furniture accordingly.

[fci]

for those of you with DirecTV, channel 361 is now streaming KHOU

there are still naive people in Galveston planning on sticking it out and keep referring to Alicia and that it hardly flooded over the sea wall...they say there is still time to leave, the causeway has not been closed...YET

I am all for accurate NHC advisories and such but sometimes you need to scare the hell out of people, call it a cat 3, those latest FL winds justify it anyways

It is great that DirecTV does this.
We got to follow Gustav from a local prespective with the NO station and will be able to do so here too.

[dixiebreeze]

Another "I." Will Ike be a second Isaac's Storm:

"The recently established U.S. Weather Bureau oversaw a weather monitoring network that included 158 regular observatories, 132 river outposts, 48 rainfall monitors, 2,562 volunteer observers, 12 West Indies stations, 9 coastal stations, and 96 railway posts throughout the country. One newspaper editorialist in 1900 called weather prediction "a complete science."

It wasn't. The hard lesson that nature cannot be predicted, especially at the extremes of its behavior, was delivered to Isaac Cline, to the city of Galveston, and to the entire nation on September 8, 1900. On the evening of that day, the worst natural disaster in U.S. history roared out of the Gulf of Mexico and confronted Galveston with its own powerlessness in the face of nature's fury.

The unnamed storm was born as a small plume of warm air off the African coast. As it moved deliberately but inexorably across the ocean it fed on the heat of the summer waters, drinking in energy until it had grown huge with the potential for destruction. On September 7, cables started arriving in the Weather Bureau's Washington headquarters, relaying ships' encounters with the growing storm in an area off Cuba.

The storm then crossed Florida and arrived in the Gulf, but instead of meandering in the manner of most Gulf storms, it turned and aimed straight for Galveston. The track allowed its winds to blow unobstructed for hundreds of miles over waters made unusually warm by a particularly tropical summer. The storm added to its vast store of energy and pushed a huge wall of water along its leading edge.

On the evening of September 8, the tempest of wind and water slammed into Galveston. In the language of today's National Weather Service, it would be called an extreme hurricane, or X-storm. Within a few hours of making landfall, the storm had scoured vast sections of the city clean of any man-made structure, deposited towering walls of debris in other areas, and killed upward of 10,000 people. Among the dead was Isaac Cline's wife.

The Galveston storm remains the worst natural disaster ever to strike the U.S., its death toll eclipsing the combined carnage of the Johnstown Flood of 1889 and the San Francisco Earthquake of 1906.

Isaac's Storm is a fascinating look at the physics and meteorology of hurricanes (especially the X-storms that scientists say are a statistical certainty in our own future), a suspenseful re-creation of the track of the 1900 Galveston storm, and an electrifying account of the day the storm released its unfathomable fury on Galveston."

[dhweather]

When does the NHC start going with bulletins every 2 hours?
I thought that they did this when a storm was close in.

When the eye appears on radar, they go to 2-hour updates with odd-hour position estimates.

The Eye is beginning to come in on the Lake Charles radar.

[NEXRAD]

I see NWS Houston backed off their statement.

"PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN
SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES FACE THE POSSIBILITY OF DEATH."

Yeah, no doubt the certain part was a scare tactic, however make no doubt with such a huge surge this will be a killer.

The only thing we have to hope is the big early waves has made people get out of there, if they weren't there we'd have an even worse situations.

I recall reading a research article not too long ago about how the bold language in these warnings was developed by NWSFO Tampa Bay and was first employed with Katrina's landfall. From the article, which I neglect to recall the citation, the tactics did work well.

As for the surge, there's already significant tidal flooding occuring across SW Lousiana and NE Texas coastlines. Sabine Pass is flooded with over 6 feet of water and Calcasieu Pass has over 7 feet of water. This is noteworthy because the actual tides have been running higher than the forecasts.

(sidenote: sorry for being away during Ike's Gulf track; I've been buried with research this week, but have some time today and tomorrow to watch the tropics)

- Jay

[jinftl]

Latest updates on New Orleans
(from http://www.nola.com)

According to the National Weather Service, tides are 5 to 8 feet above normal east of the Mississippi River, including parishes surrounding Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas. Tides are expected to increase to 7 to 9 feet above normal on east facing shores of New Orleans and St. Bernard and Plaquemines parishes before receding on Saturday.

A mandatory evacuation of the Crown Point, Lafitte and Barataria area has been ordered in Jefferson Parish because of rising water, according to chief executive assistant Tim Whitmer. Jefferson Parish sheriff's deputies will be on hand to assist, according to spokesman Col. John Fortunato.

Storm surge from Hurricane Ike already has inundated the Mandeville lakefront and some low-lying areas elsewhere in St. Tammany and has yet to peak, with flooding potentially exceeding Gustav levels before beginning to recede around sunset, weather officials reported at mid-morning.

[KWT]

dhweather, its going to really tight as to whether the surge goes over the top of the seawall based on the max surge forecasted, of course the waves are going to go right over the top probably but we shall see...surge now upto 6-8ft and already the waves spilling over the top...

Baytown is going to get hammered by the surge, the entire galveston bay region is probably going to get near total damage from the storm surge as will much of SE texas coastline as well as W.LA sadly.

[gubyw1]

That last burst of convection is crazy. Good luck to everyday in the path of that thing. Hopefully Ike starts weakening now, but even if it does the surge it is pushing won't decrease significantly.

[Shoshana]

Anyone know if there are plans to close the Galveston Causeway due to surge, wave height. and wind?

I don't think they close it due to surge, but from memory, they'll close it when the winds pick up. That said, I don't know how deep the water will be at the Galveston entrance to the causeway.

I'm currently watching KHOU on Austin's digital channel 24.2 (KVUE's second channel) if you have a station owned by Belo they may be doing that too - WFAA in Dallas, WWL-TV in New Orleans etc.

[SunnyThoughts]

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... 7172072633 Full length documentary/film based on Isaac's storm Worth the watch.

[CronkPSU]

dr neil frank is on...

talking about how some areas should have never been developed because of the risk of storm surge there...calling the storm surge basically a dome of water 50-75 miles long

[PhillyWX]

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... h-ike.html

Updated photos from Galveston

[jinftl]

MSNBC has message "Ike 199 miles SE of Galvestion"....slightly odd but telling.

[AJC3]

for those of you with DirecTV, channel 361 is now streaming KHOU

there are still naive people in Galveston planning on sticking it out and keep referring to Alicia and that it hardly flooded over the sea wall...they say there is still time to leave, the causeway has not been closed...YET

I am all for accurate NHC advisories and such but sometimes you need to scare the hell out of people, call it a cat 3, those latest FL winds justify it anyways

It is great that DirecTV does this.
We got to follow Gustav from a local prespective with the NO station and will be able to do so here too.

Ditto. They must have just started this at noon, because it wasn't on earlier, and 363 has been running storm info (evacs, closures, preparedness info, etc.) since earlier this morning.

BTW... I read the story about the bar called the 'Poop Deck'.

http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/ ... ebbc0.html

I was alarmed (but sad to say, not terribly surprised) at the cavalier attitude of those interviewed. What's even more dire is I just googled the Poop Deck to see exactly where it was...and it ain't good, folks.

Poop Deck, 2928 Seawall Blvd, Galveston, TX

http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ie=UT ... w=map&cd=1

Zoom out a bit to get a perspective.

[NEXRAD]

I know it's too early to be certain, but the exact location of landfall is critical to me. I'm west of downtown by about 30 miles. Speaking only of my situation, I'd want the eye to miss me on the east. I realize that if it just misses me to the east, that's the worst case scenario for the most people, and I'm certainly not hoping for that, either.

But I'll feel a lot better when someone can confidently state where landfall will occur. Depending on which side of my house takes the brunt, I'll be moving furniture accordingly.

You are within the NHC forecast central cone of error and are close to the model consensus. That said, landfalling storms often wobble as they move onshore and it's impossible to accurately predict the exact slight changes in storm track. For example, 1999's Hurricane Irene took a markedly more east track that was not forecast to occur just 6 hours prior to it happening. Therefore, I would prepare your house for wind impacts regardless of the direction.


- Jay

[dixiebreeze]

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5738477727172072633 Full length documentary/film based on Isaac's storm Worth the watch.

Sunny, the book "Isaac's Storm" is terrific, too.