CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Scorpion]

People need to chill out about the winds. The storm has levelled off and will not have the same winds as it was when it was deepening. 140 kt is nothing to sneeze at.

Actually Scorpion....unless they find higher winds it appears Dean has WEAKENED....Last recon measured 162kt flight level.

Well yes, maybe so, same thing happened to Katrina when it went down to 902.

[Coredesat]

[miamicanes177]

Actually Scorpion....unless they find higher winds it appears Dean has WEAKENED....Last recon measured 162kt flight level.

The storm is not weakening if the pressure is falling.

[typhoon_tim]

Last recon had 905mb...

NHC must believe that report is suspect

advisory came out before that fix.... fix was at 0604Z

[wxmann_91]

As an avid satellite image collector, I am extremely angry about the eclipse happening at this time.

[CronkPSU]

As an avid satellite image collector, I am extremely angry about the eclipse happening at this time.

how much longer? 30 more minutes?

[Normandy]

Actually Scorpion....unless they find higher winds it appears Dean has WEAKENED....Last recon measured 162kt flight level.

The storm is not weakening if the pressure is falling.

Correct.
I meant the winds weakened.

Yes the storm is deeper now.

[wxmann_91]

As an avid satellite image collector, I am extremely angry about the eclipse happening at this time.

how much longer? 30 more minutes?

I believe until 0615Z. That is right now, but the image will come out about 15-30 min later.

Of course, today's eclipse began 15 minutes later (0401Z rather than 0415Z), so I'm not sure if the times have changed or not.

[Scorpion]

I don't see a 9 mb fall in pressure as weakening either

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That was the northwest quad. In fact it is very likely that they will find winds a good 5-10 knots stronger then last time when they look in the north and northeast quads. Also the adivisory came out before the fix. Watch for lower pressure.

[Normandy]

I'll say it again.

Correct.
Yes the storm is deeper now.

I meant the winds weakened.

[Sanibel]

Um, isn't 162KT FL = 170mph?

[CrazyC83]

372
URNT15 KNHC 210615
AF306 1504A DEAN HDOB 19 20070821
060500 1832N 08652W 6966 02348 9064 +216 +131 323003 008 016 004 03
060530 1831N 08654W 6963 02364 9089 +200 +136 322021 030 035 004 03
060600 1829N 08655W 6973 02397 9146 +180 +145 296053 068 999 999 03
060630 1827N 08655W 6974 02458 9207 +145 +145 284089 096 118 006 05
060700 1825N 08654W 6949 02603 9990 +097 +999 280121 129 120 048 05
060730 1823N 08654W 6974 02659 9990 +088 +999 270118 121 108 040 05
060800 1822N 08654W 6969 02718 9990 +088 +999 268110 112 093 032 05
060830 1820N 08654W 6970 02749 9990 +087 +999 268102 105 089 040 05
060900 1819N 08654W 6963 02791 9632 +097 +097 270093 099 086 013 00
060930 1817N 08654W 6973 02807 9644 +116 +116 267085 086 085 003 00
061000 1815N 08654W 6965 02843 9671 +115 +115 269084 085 078 008 00
061030 1814N 08654W 6964 02856 9702 +106 +106 272085 087 077 010 03
061100 1812N 08654W 6972 02871 9735 +097 +097 273080 084 076 009 00
061130 1810N 08654W 6964 02895 9751 +097 +097 273077 078 075 008 00
061200 1809N 08654W 6968 02906 9759 +104 +104 273073 075 075 006 00
061230 1807N 08654W 6967 02921 9763 +114 +114 277069 072 074 006 00
061300 1805N 08654W 6972 02929 9780 +112 +112 279066 067 074 007 00
061330 1803N 08654W 6958 02956 9990 +088 +999 286071 073 072 008 01
061400 1801N 08654W 6971 02950 9825 +088 +088 286070 072 071 042 05
061430 1759N 08654W 6965 02968 9821 +102 +102 284071 072 070 008 03
$$

Someone else take over...

[philnyc]

As an avid satellite image collector, I am extremely angry about the eclipse happening at this time.

how much longer? 30 more minutes?

I believe until 0615Z. That is right now, but the image will come out about 15-30 min later.

Of course, today's eclipse began 15 minutes later (0401Z rather than 0415Z), so I'm not sure if the times have changed or not.

I agree wxmann_91. It's really frustrating to lose images at an historic time like this. But that's the roll of the dice. And yes I believe you're right - 0615 should be the next...

[Normandy]

Um, isn't 162KT FL = 170mph?

When they measured that they used the .85 reduction.....yielded 160 mph thus the upgrade.

*IF* we apply that same reduction to the winds just measured, it would indicated 130 kt winds (Upper end Cat 4). They still need to sample the rest of the storm though.

[ekal]

Um, isn't 162KT FL = 170mph?

Well, depends upon the reduction. They have been using 0.85. Not sure why; convection is awfully robust to not be using 0.90.

[Scorpion]

I think they will upgrade to 145 kt in poststorm report

[Coredesat]

I can't do this forever, so I may need someone else to post the HDOBs.



S semicircle

[Sanibel]

Well obviously you should reject a pressure drop in a strengthening-appearing storm with weakening winds as bad data.

[ekal]

000
URNT12 KNHC 210621
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 21/06:05:10Z
B. 18 deg 32 min N
086 deg 53 min W
C. 700 mb 2306 m
D. 144 kt
E. 030 deg 012 nm
F. 103 deg 156 kt
G. 030 deg 012 nm
H. 909 mb
I. 12 C/ 3045 m
J. 23 C/ 3051 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1504A DEAN OB 07
MAX FL WIND 156 KT N QUAD 05:48:20 Z

Wow. Sfc winds estimated at 144 knots.