ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Levi Cowan has posted a new video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7n-O5f5T_wk

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TJRE]

CMC- Goes IR (10.7 µm):


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/index_e.html#goes_east


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Rincoin]

Thanks Ozone -- I am traveling this week but my family is home on west coast of PR -- My weather station is located in Rincon at my house and could be useful on the other page -- http://www.rinconadventure.com/Weather/wxindex.php My cam is down but all other data uploads every 5-10 seconds as long as power stays on. Hoping TD 7 stays week and spares us the scary flooding we can see here on the island.

[Alyono]

T numbers increased.

04/2345 UTC 16.8N 66.3W T2.5/2.5 07L -- Atlantic

They might upgrade at 11, but there was nothing even close to TS force in the Recon flight so I wouldn't for now.

huh? 41 KT at the level they flew is right on the border

[cycloneye]

Hello Gabrielle!

ATCF updated the 00z Best Track

AL, 07, 2013090500, , BEST, 0, 167N, 663W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GABRIELLE, M

[hurricanes1234]

Storms have that inexplicable but distinguishing look from depressions, and Gabrielle fits into this special 'stronger' look.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

Wow this convection keeps expanding with the system to Gabrielle's east..

Stay safe Cycloneye, Gustywind, Msbee, and all in those the islands. Lot's of nasty weather on the way for you all:

[Alyono]

yet again the John Hope Rule fails

yet another TC forming in the east Caribbean. This is 13 since 2003

[Gustywind]

Look at this how strange.

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

might dump some heavy rain on us though
following from Meteo France, thanks to Gustywind:

Latest weather forecast for the Northern Leewards. Yellow alert is up!


Level of vigilance: yellow

Danger: Heavy rains and thunderstorms

Validity: Wednesday, September 04, 2013 at 9 p.m. to Friday, September 06, 2013 at 12:00

Current situation: The axis of a relatively active tropical wave is crossing the Caribbean arc.

Forecasts: Rain at the front of this wave begin to spread on the northern part of the Lesser Antilles and take a stormy character tonight. Rainfall values expected should reach between 50-100 millimeters in less than 12 hours . No improvement sustainable is expected before Friday morning.

Thanks Barbara, shoud we add Guadeloupe too, even if i'm a litte off topic.

Latest Weather Forecast for Guadeloupe 6 PM. Yellow alert is maintained!

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_gd.pdf

Level of vigilance: yellow.

Danger: Heavy rains and thunderstorms.

Validity: ongoing until Thursday, September 05, 2013 included.

Current situation:The weather situation is influenced by two disturbed systems: one in the Caribbean Sea now Depression tropical n ° 7 and who moves in the direction of Puerto Rico; the other located on the near Atlantic and will concerning this evening and tonight our island.

Forecasts: Rains are reactivated on our island and become again more frequent during the night. They can take locally a stormy character. Rainfall expected should reach values between 50 to 100 millemeters in some areas in 12 hours.
No sustainable improvement is expected before the end of tommorow Thursday.

Observed data:

Collected over the last 24 hours:
-Les Mamelles: 32 mm.

Next newsletter: Thursday September 5, 2013 around 06 AM.

[ronjon]

yeah gabrielle is starting to pull the convective mass from the east into her circulation. This might be a major storm after all. shes really wrapping up tonite.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/flash-rb-short.html

[HurriGuy]

I think its safe to say that the wave to the east is producing some of the most impressive convection of the season without seeing a let up in it. The water vapor loop is just constant deep, tall thunderstorms.

[floridasun78]

starting look like this fish storm

its going to nail Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with floods, so in no way is this a fish

Its going to be bad for those it does hit though

i was saying in forecast after pass islands

[HurriGuy]

yeah gabrielle is starting to pull the convective mass from the east into her circulation. This might be a major storm after all. shes really wrapping up tonite.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/flash-rb-short.html

I am curious to see though what happens once it tries wrapping this massive blob of convection to the north.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: When two systems merge..will there be a new center of circulation that forms?

Not likely. It appears the moisture from the disturbance to the NE will wrap into the northern part of TD 7 tonight then be drawn into the depression. No new center in between the two, for example. But I do think the models are not handling the two systems well, which is why I'd go left of NHC's track and very slow movement near Turks & Caicos in 3 days before lifting out to the NE.

actually if there was ( not really in this case) a second vort ( was a clear one earlier) then a "new center" could be a possibility. I have done multiple numerical models of the interactions between pressure systems( as well as physical forces) and though the larger dominat center typically maintains its not without its disruption and in many cases relocation .... typically not large relocation but none the less to cause large track errors.

[HurriGuy]

That wave to the east must be stealing all of Gabrielle's energy. That thing just looks erie.

[Macrocane]

Seven is looking very good in the last few frames, organizing at a fairly rapid pace. It would be interesting to see if the NHC verifies as the models and even the NHC itself have been struggling with everything this year.

[Gustywind]

Wow this convection keeps expanding with the system to Gabrielle's east..

Stay safe Cycloneye, Gustywind, Msbee, and all in those the islands. Lot's of nasty weather on the way for you all:

Thank you very much Gatorcane! I didn't tkink that all that juicy convection was so close to us
TS Gabrielle continues to improve itself! Islanders be on your guard!

[NDG]

Zommed in radar loop is getting interesting.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/JUA.DHR ... 173_an.gif

[Aric Dunn]

yet again the John Hope Rule fails

yet another TC forming in the east Caribbean. This is 13 since 2003

the problem.. is not the john hope rule.. its better observations forecasting... the likelyhood of development sometimes seems to preceed actually organized systems simply do to public awareness. is it scientific at that point no.. is it beneficial yeah ... to who ? well that would be the majority that dont know the difference and die because a TD caused flooding or what not... most of the people on here recognize the differences.

[pgoss11]

I could be wrong but it looks like Gabrielle could make landfall on PR?
Not an official forecast.