ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[robbielyn]

the wife(convection) not wanting to let go of the husband(llc) she's reaching out to him. maybe no divorce after all lol

[tolakram]

Latest



Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-88&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[jhpigott]

Looks like a nice little cell popping off to the south of the LLC

[wxman57]

Karen has outrun its upper ridge. High pressure aloft to the south is producing the shear. Not sure the shear will let up much today. That burst of convection near the center may be gone in a few hours.

[tolakram]

Karen has outrun its upper ridge. High pressure aloft to the south is producing the shear. Not sure the shear will let up much today. That burst of convection near the center may be gone in a few hours.

Well at the moment it's now under 20 kts for the first time? Am I reading this correctly?

[tolakram]

These sheared storms always make for nice pics in the morning.

[Rail Dawg]

Latest

http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/1153/henp.jpg

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-88&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

Check out that bubble of convection bustin' up through the tropopause! Lots of energy there.

[HurriGuy]

NHC is not forecasting a turn till tomorrow...do y'all agree with this? They have Karen not getting past 90.4W when looking at visible it seems like it is almost to 90.4W. So if they forecast a turn tomorrow and Karen is still heading in this NNW-NW movement throughout the day, wouldn't she get more west and ultimately make a landfall even more north into LA instead of the southern tip?

[ronjon]

NHC is not forecasting a turn till tomorrow...do y'all agree with this? They have Karen not getting past 90.4W when looking at visible it seems like it is almost to 90.4W. So if they forecast a turn tomorrow and Karen is still heading in this NNW-NW movement throughout the day, wouldn't she get more west and ultimately make a landfall even more north into LA instead of the southern tip?

Karen's going to slow down and possibly stall over the next 24 hrs.

[Frank P]

Karen's convection continues to build and now has the center covered.. I was able to track it on the IR rainbow loop really easily all morning but now the center is completely covered... wonder how long it will continue to build and if the shear will eventually blow it off to the NE.. has not happened yet however...

[Jagno]

This is not a good time to test the "bowl", massive sinkhole or the levees as we've had a lot of rainfall recently. So far it seems most aren't even aware there is a storm out there let alone a threat since many thought it was going east of our state. People need to wake up before we have another fiasco on our hands.

[stormlover2013]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I am going to give you all a quick update on Karen. Things are looking pretty much on track for landfall across the central and eastern Gulf coast. However, I do want to show you a couple of neat satellite pictures that I want to explain a bit this morning.

Color Infrared

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Visible

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Water Vapor (This shows the water/moisture levels several thousand fee up into the atmosphere)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

I want you to notice on both the infrared along wtih the visible, where the center is in reference to the convection (thunderstorms) of Karen. Also, on the third imagery, (water vapor) I want you to also notice the amout of dry air still entrenched across the western Gulf of Mexico. This is part of the reason that Karen is going to have a very hard time becoming a hurricane. Also, the amount of shear (upper level winds) is up close to 25-30 knots (30-35 mph) which is not conduscive for further development of this system. Some of the storm activity is trying to get it's act together near the center but if you notice in the imageries above, it gets blown off to the east. In order for further development to occur, the storms will need to wrap around the center. I think there will be a very brief window later today, however it is going to be an extremely tight one.

Part of the reason I wanted to write you all this email was to give you a good perspective and example of what shear can do to a storm. You can notice where the center is but there is nothing there at all.

So my thoughts are as follows...

Several inches of rain 3-6 are possible anywhere from Biloxi to the Florida Panhandle. The New Orleans area can expect about 1-3 inches of rain and some possible coastal flooding especially north of Boothville, towards Panama City.

Any wind and squally weather will occur east, possibly up to 200 miles of where the center makes landfall.

Here are my landfall percentages below...

Brownsville to Lake Charles, LA - 0%

Cameron to Morgan City, LA - 10% (landfall would be late Saturday into early Sunday)

Morgan City to Houma, LA - 20% (landfall likely early Sunday)

Boothville, LA (southeast of New Orleans) to Biloxi, MS - 60% (early Sunday morning - this could be the first of two landfalls)

Biloxi, MS - Mobile, AL - 60-70% (early to midday Sunday - this could be a second landfall of Karen)

Mobile, AL - Panama City, FL - 60-70% (midday Sunday - second landfall possible)


This is from my weather buddy that sends out emails to all of his Texas buddies to just give us a update so I decided to share. His email is nathan.moore1279@gmail.com he said you can email him and he will put yall on his email address so he can send yall emails!!! he does it for winter and hurricane season

[MGC]

Looks like the shear is constant right up to the LA Coast...doubt it abates till Karen goes with the flow. Doubt the cyclone makes hurricane.....MGC

[Dean4Storms]

Shear has let up like I mentioned a bit ago and this has turned more northerly.

[Janie2006]

At this point I'm thinking Karen peaked yesterday, even if we take into account a slower forward motion and a possible stall. If she stalls she won't be still for very long as that big trough plows in, certainly not for days on end.

[Dean4Storms]

Notice the new convection tops fanning out more to the north and not immediately sent eastward.

[Janie2006]

...perhaps the shear is lessening at the moment. I have to add a caveat to my previous post. If GFS verifies she'd have a bit more time to do her thing (scientific terminology!!) since she'd be moving NE 100 miles or so off the coast. Whoever is right along and to the east of the COC is going to have some heavy weather....maybe *far* to the east given how the convection got blown off the center last night.

[tolakram]

Live 14 frame visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=14

Speed it up for full effect. Slowly drifting north?

[windnrain]

Any clue when the next recon is going out?

This new convection appears not to be getting sheared directly away.

[windnrain]

Live 14 frame visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=14

Speed it up for full effect. Slowly drifting north?

I'm still seeing NNW movement.