ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneEnzo]

Don't really need ASCAT when you can clearly see the swirl on satellite. Is it still at TD strength? That may be debatable but the center is still there.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I see an outflow boundary moving away from what WAS that weak vortex. Vortex is gone, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/Thirteen4.JPG

Just bring out Bones..

for what? even the hwrf and hmon showed this happening. don't expect any noticeable improvements until friday afternoon or saturday.

[Buck]

Hmm, its almost like developing cyclones sometimes pulse up and down and sometimes struggle or open up. I wonder where I've seen this happen before...

i remember when people even declared dorian an open wave for a day when it passed hispaniola.

I was reading the Dorian thread recently and it's a lot of the same people.

MMMMMHHMMMM.

[Weatherboy1]

Not really any models predicted a fast, severe intensification of 13, so not sure why current appearance comes as such a surprise. What would come as a surprise to me is if in 48 hours we’re not looking at something more significant when it’s closer to the north of the islands. Meanwhile, I can’t stress enough how almost ALL models are remarkably consistent on path out to 3.5/4 days. Very tight cluster pointing in general direction of SE FL/Keys. Will it be a Cat 2 hurricane? Or a TD/minimal TS at the time? Those seem to be the only questions. So definitely need to pay very close attention

[SFLcane]

I see an outflow boundary moving away from what WAS that weak vortex. Vortex is gone, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/Thirteen4.JPG

Just bring out Bones..

for what? even the hwrf and hmon showed this happening. don't expect any noticeable improvements until friday afternoon or saturday.

2 highly unreliable models. Not really capturing the current structure of this thing. Recon will find a wave tonight.

Trend on the ensembles today has been for a weaker storm

[sponger]

Hmm, its almost like developing cyclones sometimes pulse up and down and sometimes struggle or open up. I wonder where I've seen this happen before...

Correct. I remember TD 10 and its horrific presentation for days until it missed the final weakness to the North and became Katrina.

[SFLcane]

HWRF and HMON are almost undoubtedly wrong.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Just bring out Bones..

for what? even the hwrf and hmon showed this happening. don't expect any noticeable improvements until friday afternoon or saturday.

2 highly unreliable models. Not really capturing the current structure of this thing. Recon will find a wave tonight.

Trend on the ensembles today has been for a weaker storm

well, one of our mets in the models thread highlighted how those "2 unreliable models" have handled the situation the best so far...

i'm not saying they are guaranteed to be correct in the future, but today's current events are expected.

[Hammy]

Hmm, its almost like developing cyclones sometimes pulse up and down and sometimes struggle or open up. I wonder where I've seen this happen before...

i remember when people even declared dorian an open wave for a day when it passed hispaniola.

I was reading the Dorian thread recently and it's a lot of the same people.

One storm does not mean everybody will be wrong the other 99 times. A lot of the people saying this will strengthen were saying the same with Erika and literally every other sheared system.

well, one of our mets in the models thread highlighted how those "2 unreliable models" have handled the situation the best so far...

They handled one storm--Hanna--correctly because they didn't have time to over-strengthen it. They showed Isaias and Gonzalo becoming majors and Josephine becoming a hurricane.

[supercane4867]

Don't really need ASCAT when you can clearly see the swirl on satellite. Is it still at TD strength? That may be debatable but the center is still there.

As far as I know there is no lower threshold for TD strength. 15kt TDs do exist.

[Evil Jeremy]

How about lets all agree that the models will continue to bounce around run-to-run for a couple more days, and we won't have a good idea what 13 might mean for Florida until the weekend.

As for whether or not this is a TD, well, I said last night NHC should have gone to PTC, and I still think that should be the designation.

[artist]

Just bring out Bones..

for what? even the hwrf and hmon showed this happening. don't expect any noticeable improvements until friday afternoon or saturday.

2 highly unreliable models. Not really capturing the current structure of this thing. Recon will find a wave tonight.

Trend on the ensembles today has been for a weaker storm

Do you remember a storm recently that hit the Tx coast that the euro and gfs showed would amount to nothing that became a hurricane?

[HurricaneEnzo]

Don't really need ASCAT when you can clearly see the swirl on satellite. Is it still at TD strength? That may be debatable but the center is still there.

As far as I know there is no lower threshold for TD strength. 15kt TDs do exist.

True but NHC doesn't usually classify a TD for anything less than 25-30kts. The WPAC does seem to be more lenient on that.

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[supercane4867]

i remember when people even declared dorian an open wave for a day when it passed hispaniola.

I was reading the Dorian thread recently and it's a lot of the same people.

One storm does not mean everybody will be wrong the other 99 times. A lot of the people saying this will strengthen were saying the same with Erika and literally every other sheared system.

Both Erikas occurred in El-nino years(09 and 15), however.

[TheStormExpert]

HWRF and HMON are almost undoubtedly wrong.

Can’t trust those two until you have a well developed system, and this is nowhere near that!

[gfsperpendicular]

i remember when people even declared dorian an open wave for a day when it passed hispaniola.

I was reading the Dorian thread recently and it's a lot of the same people.

One storm does not mean everybody will be wrong the other 99 times. A lot of the people saying this will strengthen were saying the same with Erika and literally every other sheared system.

well, one of our mets in the models thread highlighted how those "2 unreliable models" have handled the situation the best so far...

They handled one storm--Hanna--correctly because they didn't have time to over-strengthen it. They showed Isaias and Gonzalo becoming majors and Josephine becoming a hurricane.

First of all, I didn't say it did, nor did I imply that 13 would strengthen to Dorian levels. Also that met was talking specifically about 98L/13L.

[Hammy]

True but NHC doesn't usually classify a TD for anything less than 25-30kts. The WPAC does seem to be more lenient on that.

They used to but for whatever reason appear to have stopped--I remember TD6 in 1995 being initialized at 20kt operationally but I don't know of anything they've done that with since.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF and HMON are almost undoubtedly wrong.

Can’t trust those two until you have a well developed system, and this is nowhere near that!

Can't trust ANY model until you have a system...

[Aric Dunn]

CLose up of the LLC and the new tower firing over it. should expand as a lot of moisture is being pulled in from the south now.

https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/U1wmAi

[eastcoastFL]

I would like to see some more discussion from the NHC on the inhibiting factors for organization. The GFS and Euro are not developing but yet when you read the NHC discussion, no mention of inhibiting factors or why the huge difference between the hurricane models and the GFS and Euro. Yet there is something because no way those two models miss this bad in the timeframe we are talking.

I think they see the future environment very conducive for strengthening if it stays north of the island. I’d say because of that they are not putting any stock into the gfs or euro right now.