#1115 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Nov 27, 2024 9:37 am
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
535 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong cold front this evening will bring much cooler weather
to the region for Thanksgiving Day.
- Most of North Texas and parts of Central Texas will see the
first freeze of the season Thursday night into Friday morning.
- Additional overnight freezes possible this weekend as another
cold front arrives Saturday night. Below normal temperatures
will linger into the first week of December
Update:
The forecast trends discussed below generally remain on track. It
is worth noting that slight run-to-run adjustments (by a degree or
two) in deterministic guidance has caused some locations to
oscillate between a forecast for above/below freezing temperatures
Thursday night into Friday morning. The root cause is likely the
extent to which radiational cooling conditions can develop. With
North and Central Texas on the southern periphery of the surface
high pressure, the weakening pressure gradient across our area
should allow enhanced radiational cooling conditions to develop
particularly across parts of North Texas. With this forecast
update, Thursday night`s temperatures have been lowered slightly
below the NBM to better account for the calm winds and clearing
skies expected. NBM temperature probabilities continue to show a
60-90% chance of widespread freezing temperatures across much of
North Texas and parts of Central Texas by daybreak Friday.
Our well-advertised second cold front of the week will be plunging
southward into Central Texas through the evening hours on
Wednesday, with strong cold advection occurring in its wake. By
daybreak on Thanksgiving, wind chill temperatures will be hovering
in the 30s and lower 40s across North Central Texas, with gusty
north winds and overcast skies lending a definite wintertime feel
to the holiday. Brisk north winds will continue to pump chilly
Canadian air southward across the region on Thursday, though by
afternoon we should experience a definitive clearing trend from
north to south. This trend should yield sunny conditions generally
north of I-20 by mid afternoon, with clearing commencing later in
the afternoon and evening farther south. Highs will struggle into
the lower and middle 50s in most areas, with readings closer to
60 across the southern tier of our counties.
The combination of clear skies and slackening winds will allow
temperatures to drop into the upper 20s across many areas west
through north of the Metroplex Friday morning. This will represent
the first definitive freeze for many areas of North Central
Texas. The only areas that will avoid the freezing mark will be
the urban core of the Metroplex and most of the areas along the
I-35 corridor south of DFW. Indeed, just about anywhere in the
forecast area may see freezing conditions Friday morning, at least
in low-lying or otherwise sheltered locations. Will likely be
issuing a Freeze Watch for much of the area tomorrow, followed by
a Warning on Thursday. Precautions for tender plants, animals and
other items will be required by Friday morning.
Friday will represent a near carbon copy of Thursday,
temperature-wise, with most locations remaining in the 50s under a
cool, light northeast flow regime. The absence of stronger winds,
and a full day of sunshine will make it seem a bit warmer,
however. After chilly starts both Saturday and Sunday morning, the
weekend afternoons will feature continued sunny weather and
cooler than normal conditions, followed by a modest retrenchment
of high temperatures as we enter the first two days of the coming
week. The introduction of low level moisture and weak isentropic
lift late on Monday through Tuesday will enable the development of
patchy light rain across the southeastern zones Monday night into
Tuesday. Kept low PoPs in place for this portion of the forecast
area, though QPFs should remain very light.
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