Tropical Storm Chris

[wxmann_91]

Thanks for pointing that out, Derek. The BAM models are not designed for use out of the deep tropics and certainly not in a region subject to frequent ridge/trof movements.

Yeah, I know that. I wasn't basing my post on the BAM's. Guess the 0Z run of the globals should tell us more.

And a TD in Hispaniola is not a complete disaster. A TD stalling in Hispaniola, OTOH, is a catastrophe.

[Opal storm]

I don't know if it's been mentioned or not but I saw the Accuwx track on the local news and their track goes all the way to TX/MX,but almost all the Gulf coast is in the cone.

[Rainband]

I don't know if it's been mentioned or not but I saw the Accuwx track on the local news and their track goes all the way to TX/MX,but almost all the Gulf coast is in the cone.

thats safe

[ConvergenceZone]

If it tracks over Hispaniola, it's going to die.

I hope it does. don't get me wrong. I don't want anyone hurt. It amazes me how many people STILL seem to want a cane after the last few years. Please don't patronize me. I can read between the lines. I hope some of you get your wish and learn a thing or two. The best thing that could happen is the models to be right and dissipate this. I know thats not what many of you want but thats what would be best.

Remember Rainband, the storm will do what IT WANTS to do, it doesn't matter if we wish it or don't wish it. It won't change anything. Personally, I think that it will go over the mountains of Hispaniola and get torn apart. The models seem to be gradually sinking it further south, and they even said in their last update that they were north of what the computer models were saying. I expect them to bring it even further south on the next update, and hopefully by the time it reaches the gulf, it will just be a big glob of thunderstorms or a depression.

[CrazyC83]

One thing to remember: it doesn't take much for a catastrophe to happen in Hispaniola, particularly Haiti.

Tropical Storm Gordon (1994) killed over 1,200 in Haiti.

An undeclared tropical wave (2004) killed over 2,000 there.

Tropical Storm Jeanne (2004) killed over 3,000 there, despite only brushing the island as a tropical storm.

[WindRunner]

So, as the plane is nearing base (and data is no longer transmitting), the Google Earth path measures the plane as having traveled about 1950 miles on this missions - one of their shortest yet this seaon. Next flight takes off at 1am, for those who will be up to watch it. I will be

[Rainband]

If it tracks over Hispaniola, it's going to die.

I hope it does. don't get me wrong. I don't want anyone hurt. It amazes me how many people STILL seem to want a cane after the last few years. Please don't patronize me. I can read between the lines. I hope some of you get your wish and learn a thing or two. The best thing that could happen is the models to be right and dissipate this. I know thats not what many of you want but thats what would be best.

Remember Rainband, the storm will do what IT WANTS to do, it doesn't matter if we wish it or don't wish it. It won't change anything. Personally, I think that it will go over the mountains of Hispaniola and get torn apart. The models seem to be gradually sinking it further south, and they even said in their last update that they were north of what the computer models were saying. I expect them to bring it even further south on the next update, and hopefully by the time it reaches the gulf, it will just be a big glob of thunderstorms or a depression.

I agree. that is comman sense. It just amazes me how after 2004-2005, some are still eager for a hurricane.

[Derek Ortt]

That may be one of the poorer center fixes provided, that by SSD. No clue where they got 17.5N, when all other fixes were north of recon

[Grease Monkey]

This maybe a GOM storm.BUT either way if this storm gets to be cat 3,4,5 everybody will suffer.With gas prices near $3 we probadly be looking at $5-$8 for a gallon of gas.

I agree, any more shut down (or even a hint of shutdown) of production would drive the price out the roof. And that my fellow 2ker would bite since I travel for my company and pay for the gas....ouch!

Where's a hover board when you need one?

[Agua]

I hope some of you get your wish and learn a thing or two.

I hope they don't and live on without a clue how utterly stupid they appear.

[Cape Verde]

Maybe this isn't the thread to ask on, although it's related to what happens if Chris enters the Gulf.

Is the SST map less important than the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential map?

The Gulf is certainly warm enough at the surface, but there is a lot of variation in the TCHP map.

[Rainband]

Maybe this isn't the thread to ask on, although it's related to what happens if Chris enters the Gulf.

Is the SST map less important than the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential map?

The Gulf is certainly warm enough at the surface, but there is a lot of variation in the TCHP map.

Bad news, according to the models... Hispanolia is prob going to get hammered. Good news if that veriifies then Chris won't be much of anything after that.

[Derek Ortt]

Use the heat content, especially once this becomes a hurricane

[dixiebreeze]

Chris is deepening:

01/2345 UTC 17.5N 61.5W T3.0/3.0 CHRIS -- Atlantic Ocean

[WindRunner]

01/2345 UTC 17.5N 61.5W T3.0/3.0 CHRIS -- Atlantic Ocean


Ok,any pro met can explain why the drop in latitud from the 18.3n at the 8 PM advisory to this 17.5n? That is a big wobble.

Well, I'm no pro, Luis, but the "repositioning" might just be part of the flaw of the Dvorak technique, as it tries to find the warmest pixel closest to the deepest convection - in this case, picking a spot too far south. The recon fix (which is far more accurate) 25 minutes after this estimate was made is what the NHC will use.

[TampaFl]

I don't know if it's been mentioned or not but I saw the Accuwx track on the local news and their track goes all the way to TX/MX,but almost all the Gulf coast is in the cone.

[f5]

Maybe this isn't the thread to ask on, although it's related to what happens if Chris enters the Gulf.

Is the SST map less important than the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential map?

The Gulf is certainly warm enough at the surface, but there is a lot of variation in the TCHP map.

watch the loop current

[Derek Ortt]

Rainband,

you are looking at the wrong models. Only the GFDL is valid in this instance, but the rest of the CONU is well north of that track

[Cape Verde]

Thanks all.

[Nimbus]

Looks like Chris is still centering itself under the last big burst of convection. Perhaps the LLC was not quite under the mid level vorticity?