Bonnie Advisories

[PTrackerLA]

She sure is making no indications of a northward turn. The further west she gets, the further west the forecast path IMO. Louisiana might not be out of the woods yet as I've seen forecast tracks vary wildly from day-to day.

[PTrackerLA]

EDIT: Sorry double post.

[The Dark Knight]

[Derek Ortt]

Water temp is not the primary concern. A mroe telling signal is oceanic heat content, which is higher in the carib and why I am much mroe concerned about that than I am the GOM

[The Dark Knight]

That's cool......No prob.... I've done that a lot.....LOL....

[Stormcenter]

She sure is making no indications of a northward turn. The further west she gets, the further west the forecast path IMO. Louisiana might not be out of the woods yet as I've seen forecast tracks vary wildly from day-to day.

If you need more proof that Bonnie may be more problems for the central GOM than just some wind and rain then look at this latest visible. What I see is a organizing storm that is becoming more symetrical by the hour and moving more westerly
than anything else. Who knows this baby may just end up in Mexico. You need to speed up the loop to better understand my comments.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Matthew5]

Derek Bonnie is becoming better Organized over the last few hours with now a nice southern outflow forming. While at the same time the LLCC is wraping. I would not be suprized if Bonnie becomes a little stronger. As for tropical depression 3 it looks like the western band is sucking the core dry for now. So no tropical storm intill that dies in allows convection to form over the center.

[lilbump3000]

Right now it looks like bonnie is moving more to the W or WNW than NW. What to watch is the more west it gets the more the national hurricane center is going to shift its track futher to the west.

[Derek Ortt]

3 is large. It ill take a while for the core to become better organized. However, often when these systems do organize, they really organize

[Stormcenter]

Derek Bonnie is becoming better Organized over the last few hours with now a nice southern outflow forming. While at the same time the LLCC is wraping. I would not be suprized if Bonnie becomes a little stronger. As for tropical depression 3 it looks like the western band is sucking the core dry for now. So no tropical storm intill that dies in allows convection to form over the center.

Good post Mathew5.

[Matthew5]

I agree stormcenter in also look at that southern outflow jet out. That is a good sign of a developing storm!

[lilbump3000]

Im really not buying this florida landfall. Right now the system is moving more west than anything right now.

[Air Force Met]

IT's also not moving NW either...more at about 280. Recon will confirm this...or prove it wrong when we get the next vortex.

[The Dark Knight]

Good point.... When the NHC makes the westward shift, I will update my track... Thanks.....

[tallywx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 66_s.shtml

This is the steering flow from Wednesday afternoon for 6 hour intervals. With such a sharp trough and strong W-E steering flow starting at this time frame, could Bonnie potentially move more westward in the short term, then move N, NE, and even E...approaching LA at first, but then bumping along the nearshore LA-MS-AL-FL coast?

[corpusbreeze]

I have yet to see this NW motion the NHC says it is doing.

[lilbump3000]

Me neither corpusbreeze. Right now she is moving west to wnw but more of a west track right now. I say Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama to watch out.

[southerngale]

History says Louisiana westward down to Mexico but the models say otherwise this time.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Sorry, I just couldn't resist!

That'll most likely be the first of many corny lines associated with that

Anyway, Bonnie has a lot of pressure on her to keep the family's rich tradition going. See for yourself:

-- Since the family of Bonnies started in 1980, every Bonnie has been a hurricane.
-- Every Bonnie (except for Bonnie I) has affected land in some way (I know what you're thinking, "Bonnie III in '92 didn't affect land!" Well actually, she did. She hit the Azores Islands as a minimal TS, but the point is, she still affected land). It looks like Bonnie will keep that tradition going, though.
-- If Bonnie can survive the trip across the Southeast, the NHC is forecasting for her to bring her remnants to NC. This would be the second consecutive Bonnie to affect my home state.

Also, this doesn't have to do with her family, but it's interesting to note- if Bonnie makes it to hurricane strength, this would most likely mean that every storm so far this season has been a land-affecting hurricane. That's provided, of course, that Charley doesn't choke. Which it doesn't look like he will.

[Kennethb]

Its early August, so hasta la vista.