ATL: IKE Discussion

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6SpeedTA95
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#11001 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:05 pm

Guys, take it from a guy in the oil/gas industry, I'd stop what you're doing right now and go get gasoline. If the refineries get inundated with salt water it will not be a simple start up after the storm. IF they're affected by the surge then its an even bigger problem. Gasoline futures are way up right now, I filled up, my wife is today on the way home from work. This could pose some substantial problems over the next month with gasoline stockpiles.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11002 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:06 pm

If you guys wanna see Terrebonne Parish live here is a link. Surge is getting nasty there already. I feel for Galveston.

http://www.mogulus.com/htvhouma
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11003 Postby Time Traveller » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:06 pm

jinftl wrote:Air rescues on CNN with eye over 150 miles from shore...


Anyone know at what point the Coast Guard will ground the rescue choppers (wind speed) ?
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#11004 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:06 pm

All depends exactly where it hits Jay, if we can get this to the east of the bay then that does make the situation slightly less severe...however none the less regardless I've got a very bad feeling about this hurricane given how many people have decided to stay.
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#11005 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:07 pm

http://tx.scanamerica.us/index.php?county=Galveston LIve police, fire and rescue scanner out of Galveston
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Re: Re:

#11006 Postby thetruesms » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:07 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:Yeah it has seemed to be a bit lower at the sfc than prior storms for some reason I though it was a 12 to 15% typical deduction from flight level to surface level is that incorrect?
It changes depending on what altitude the flights are at. I had thought they were working on a 0.8 level, but I can never keep them straight :oops:
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Re:

#11007 Postby NEXRAD » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:08 pm

KWT wrote:All depends exactly where it hits Jay, if we can get this to the east of the bay then that does make the situation slightly less severe...however none the less regardless I've got a very bad feeling about this hurricane given how many people have decided to stay.


Much agreed, though my emphasis is that no matter what Ike does, Galveston is looking at surge impacts with the present water heights.

- Jay
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11008 Postby jinftl » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:08 pm

Wait till the windfield moves over.....the water rises not are not even being pushed in by 105 mph winds....i hope this all somehow turns out to be not as bad as it seems right now....that maybe we are being a bit 'sky is falling'...because right now...i am thinking a Cat 2 with the surge dynamics could be worse in an unprepared area than what we have seen this decade in terms of loss of life. I apologize for being morbid, i don't mean to sensationalize...but watching the news now and seeing the video of the gulf now...is sickening.


NEXRAD wrote:Given what's currently happening in Galveston, even if Ike moves onshore north and east of the island, there will still be more significant surge than is presently occuring. Winds will pile water onshore up until a few hours before landfall (if Ike moves farther north and east of Galveston), and with the storm still so far from Galveston, surge is only going to continue to pile-up.

- Jay
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Re: Re:

#11009 Postby bigjohn » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:09 pm

Time Traveller wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Looking at Channel 11 Houston, it's incredible and sad how people are playing with their lives.


I totally agree. It seems most of the people they are interviewing on channel 11 are totally ignorant and even think it's fun. They are saying that it never flooded badly there before, so nothing to worry about this time.


I am living testament to the fallacy of the "it's never flooded here before" argument. My house in Slidell never flooded in 20+ years before Katrina. But when I saw the forecast on Friday 8/26/05, and saw the forecast storm surge, I did not need someone to tell me to leave. My slab was at 10 feet elevation. Storm surge was forecast to be 15+ feet. So how much water did I get? Almost four feet. People fail to realize that development they may not be aware of will change the drainage and flood patterns and this sometime fools them. That is why they should listen to public officials. But i would bet if you look at everyone who has already required rescue, if they had listened to the forecasts before making a decision, they would have known that their backside would be in a bind. But too many just fall back on the 'government will save me if I makle a mistake" mentality. There were almost 2,000 people who fell victim to that mentality in Katrina. Looks like there may be equally as many stupid people in Texas. And as a native Texan, that disappoints me.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11010 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:09 pm

Time Traveller wrote:
jinftl wrote:Air rescues on CNN with eye over 150 miles from shore...


Anyone know at what point the Coast Guard will ground the rescue choppers (wind speed) ?



I think I heard 80 knots.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11011 Postby fci » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:I am measuring a 4-hr movement of 323 deg. at 12.25 kts. That heading, should it continue, would put the center inland just east of Galveston Bay in southern Chambers County in about 13 hours.


Would that lessen the surge over Galveston Bay since winds would be mainly offshore?
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Re: Re:

#11012 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:10 pm

thetruesms wrote:
6SpeedTA95 wrote:Yeah it has seemed to be a bit lower at the sfc than prior storms for some reason I though it was a 12 to 15% typical deduction from flight level to surface level is that incorrect?
It changes depending on what altitude the flights are at. I had thought they were working on a 0.8 level, but I can never keep them straight :oops:

Yeah obviously it will vary with flight level, I just wasn't aware that they may flight at substanitally different levels. Thanks for the info :)

What aren't you on AIM?
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#11013 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:11 pm

From the sounds of things there are quite a few people who haven't taken this seriously across the Galveston Bay region I just hope tyhose that were out and about have seen the light of day otherwise this hurricane is going to be just awful and prehaps deadly for those that have stayed behind.

The only thing to remember is cat-2 winds aren't no walk in the park either!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11014 Postby rtd2 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:11 pm

Time Traveller wrote:
jinftl wrote:Air rescues on CNN with eye over 150 miles from shore...


Anyone know at what point the Coast Guard will ground the rescue choppers (wind speed) ?





THE FLY IN CAT1 winds in the Bering Sea. not sure what their max operational windspeed is
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Re: Re:

#11015 Postby bigjohn » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:11 pm

ROCK wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Looking at Channel 11 Houston, it's incredible and sad how people are playing with their lives.



I saw them out there...nuts taking pictures on the seawall....people in the neighborhoods already getting water and they are just wading around in it........Mandatory evacs did not come soon enough/ was not enforced.........Galveston's mayor dropped the ball worst than Blanco.....IMO


Why the Galveston mayor's fault? There was enough time to evacuate...many did. Those that chose to stay made their own decision...one they will have to live...or die...with.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11016 Postby jinftl » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:12 pm

Any update to the number of people still in galveston. this morning TWC reported 30,000 stayed...i pray 29,999 or more got a reality check and are moving inland as i type. only a slight shift east of galveston could save lives at this point if the surge is not as bad...but that means someone else will see that 20' or 25' surge.

RL3AO wrote:
Time Traveller wrote:
jinftl wrote:Air rescues on CNN with eye over 150 miles from shore...


Anyone know at what point the Coast Guard will ground the rescue choppers (wind speed) ?



I think I heard 80 knots.
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#11017 Postby Just Joshing You » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:12 pm

91L GFDL Run has the remnants of Ike coming off the coast of Labrador and intensifying into a Cat 1 LOL
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#11018 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:14 pm

Image
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Re:

#11019 Postby bigjohn » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:15 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:Guys, take it from a guy in the oil/gas industry, I'd stop what you're doing right now and go get gasoline. If the refineries get inundated with salt water it will not be a simple start up after the storm. IF they're affected by the surge then its an even bigger problem. Gasoline futures are way up right now, I filled up, my wife is today on the way home from work. This could pose some substantial problems over the next month with gasoline stockpiles.


The situation you describe is plausible. But your solution is dangerous. monst people do not have the knowledge or skill on how to stockpile gasoline. consequently, routine post-storm procedures might turn deadly when gasoline is stockpiled. deal with the storm now...the gasoline later.
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#11020 Postby TexasStooge » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:15 pm

The National Weather Service has issued a TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING for most of North Texas until Sunday Morning.

HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1124 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE IKE TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS...

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE IKE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE
HURRICANE WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH...GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM
HOUSTON TO PALESTINE TO PARIS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATE MORNING SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER TOTALS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.

TXZ143>146-157>161-174-122245-
/O.EXT.KFWD.TI.W.0001.080913T0600Z-080914T0600Z/
HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-MILAM-
1124 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY
TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1
AM SUNDAY.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH
AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED...AS THEY CAN
EASILY BECOME PROJECTILES IN HIGH WINDS. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE
POSSIBLE...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES...A FULL TANK OF
GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND JUST
IN CASE.

...WINDS...

SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

...INLAND FLOODING...

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER SQUALLS OF
THE OUTER RAIN BANDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PARIS TO CORSICANA TO HEARNE. RESIDENTS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO
WARNINGS SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL BE AROUND 4 PM.
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