Florida Weather

[otowntiger]

Yeah!!! I'm all for it! come on cooler temps! fingers crossed! I'd be happy with just average temps.

[NDG]

The global models might just be detecting a pattern change come end of month and into early Jan. For example, the long-range ECMWF and GFS below:

https://s27.postimg.org/mp1muw37n/ecmwf ... _us_11.png

https://s29.postimg.org/tnr2ju9av/gfs_z ... _us_41.png

I am not buying it, ensembles show that both the NAO & AO will be positive to neutral & PNA will be negative to neutral around that same timing.

[TheStormExpert]

No worries! The 12z GFS is coming back to reality with our warm and humid summer(I mean winter).

[psyclone]

CPC's not buying it either. I find those forecasts right a solid 4 out of five times so when there's a discrepancy that's where to place your chips. Having said that...we're going to eek out a below normal day here in the bay area with overcast conditions and current temps in the low to mid 60's...it feels really refreshing out there today.

[gatorcane]

Well I won't believe this drastic pattern change either just yet. The 12Z ECMWF still shows the Eastern CONUS trough in the long-range, but not quite as deep as the 00Z run. It seems the ECMWF has had a trough bias for the Eastern CONUS much of the fall and winter where in the long-range it shows a massive, digging trough only for it to gradually back away from the solution as we get closer.

[SouthFloridian92]

This endless head is ridiculous!! It's only FL that's above average too, everywhere else is cold. wth

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yea, not holding out any hope for a real cold front to sweep through FL anytime soon. The GFS continues to show a cold front 10 days out+ but kills it off as we get closer in the timeline, leaving nothing but 83F weather.

No doubt northerners dealing with -13F windchill are looking at my post and thinking, "WTH is this guy complaining about"

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS with an amplified Eastern CONUS trough now like the 00Z ECMWF.

[Ntxw]

Models are hinting at a trough centered on the east coast. If a mid atlantic low can form it would help push a front into Florida. Intensity is tbd but worth monitoring as we turn the Calendar

[HURRICANELONNY]

As per Miami Discussion 12/23 this morning: While things are still somewhat uncertain
in the extended portions of the forecast, current model trends
point towards the potential for a chilly start to 2017.

[northjaxpro]

As per Miami Discussion 12/23 this morning: While things are still somewhat uncertain
in the extended portions of the forecast, current model trends
point towards the potential for a chilly start to 2017.

We shall see. Seen this before with the models, only to see them back off with the cold. I will just wait for a negative NAO to come into fruition. I guess we will see this in winter one of these days

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yea I agree with you. We seen this a couple of times already. Then the models flip. Good sign is the NAO/AO. The ensembles are all over the place starting 2017.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml

[gatorcane]

Wow, look at the 00Z ECMWF from last night

[psyclone]

Perhaps we'll get a cooldown...but even the Euro depiction implies a transient shot of cool. nevertheless something to watch..

[psyclone]

NWS is biting on the cooldown by the end of next week. In the near term last year was the warmest Christmas on record and if the current forecasts verify this will come in 2nd warmest or close to it.

[NDG]

Both Euro and GFS are in better agreement now of a cool down for the end of next week, they have both coming to a better consensus, the Euro not as cold as previous runs with the GFS not as warm as previous runs. As usual during a neutral to positive NAO the core of the cold air will be to the north of the FL Peninsula.

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS with 40s into the peninsula. If it verifies, will feel quite chilly compared to the 80s a lot of Florida has been seeing as of late.

[psyclone]

I've noticed our cool downs are almost always on Friday's this season and this one on deck is no exception. looks like 70+ highs will be confined to south Florida by then with mid to upper 60's common over central Florida. While those numbers are only a few degrees below normal they will feel chilly since we've been so warm.

[Ntxw]

Yeah trough centered along the east coast is good for bringing a cool-down to Florida. Source region isn't arctic in nature and will be highly modified, but after such a warm month it will be a difference and good to see a front able to make it down there.

[NDG]

Merry Christmas, as I expected the front at the end of the week will bring nothing more than a quick cool down, back to the 70s & 80s for New Year's Eve and New Years Day.