Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[boca]

I've been trying to play catch up ball with these systems. I haven't been on my computer since 11pm last night.90e looks like it strenghened and the low along Nicarguga is drifting north.One of the lows will win out, except I don't know which yet.

[Aric Dunn]

[Aric Dunn]

i would say with some pretty good confidence that after seing the gfdl 12z ... that it is doing some serious fujiwhara effect .... lol it develops the mass farther east

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't know how trustworthy the Navy NOGAPS model is, but for those whose security settings allow it, copy URL of hotlinked gif and roll back in time, it weakens Pac system on its 12Z run, makes Caribbean low dominant, and early next week has a system moving into the Gulf, perhaps with Florida intentions...



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[boca]

As long as it doesn't get too strong I welcome the rain to Florida.

[Ed Mahmoud]

As long as it doesn't get too strong I welcome the rain to Florida.

Even though South Texas also needs the rain, I have my reasons for wanting the dry spell and wildfires that have been plaguing Florida to come to an end in the next month.

[KWT]

i would say with some pretty good confidence that after seing the gfdl 12z ... that it is doing some serious fujiwhara effect .... lol it develops the mass farther east

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

You can say that again, thats a pretty textbook model example of that feature in effect, it does develop the SW Caribbean system but develops the center further east and it does appear to make it a tropical cyclone as well. I guess it forms a new LP in the area of that deeper convection that is currently present.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If Euro 500 mb heights are in the ballpark, whatever might develop has to make it to the Gulf within a week, before the weakness fills over Florida. After that, entire US Gulf Coast looks protected by a solid ridge that would turn anything Westward.

[cycloneye]

2 PM Discussion by TPC:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SHEAR
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THE SW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING
UPPER LEVEL EPAC MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH
THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W ARE PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF DENSE CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N W OF 72W OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA...N COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[feederband]

As long as it doesn't get too strong I welcome the rain to Florida.

Yes it would be great to get some rain...Worst case if it gets to be a big boy and heads into the gulf and Gas prices will be more out of control then they are now..

[gatorcane]

anybody else agree with me that the Nicaraguan low is looking much better today?? ..it is getting more of a "comma" shape with each passing hour and it is pulling NNW in the general direction of the NW Caribbean. It certainly looks like it needs a BEAR watch at this time.

[KWT]

It is IMO looking better today gatorcane however I still feel 90E is far better organised presently. IF the weak lp thats present in the SW Caribbean re-locates into that deeper convection then it wiill have more of a chance at organising. Best chance for anything will have to come after 90E is inland I think.

[Brent]

anybody else agree with me that the Nicaraguan low is looking much better today?? ..it is getting more of a "comma" shape with each passing hour and it is pulling NNW in the general direction of the NW Caribbean. It certainly looks like it needs a BEAR watch at this time.

I agree as well, it looks a lot better but still looks broad and disorganized. The EPAC looks like it'll be a TD very soon.

[cycloneye]

[NDG]

One thing that this low near Nicaragua has an advantage over 90E is "latitude", 90E looks like is getting ready to go inland pretty soon, if it goes over Costa Rica, its high mountains will destroy any LLC that is trying to re-form.

[Cyclone1]

Honestly, I think it could develop over either basin right now. It's almost literally over the spine of Central America.

[gatorcane]

Honestly, I think it could develop over either basin right now. It's almost literally over the spine of Central America.

agreed --- but the Nicaraguan low looks to be nearly over land now, so that should slow any development. It's projected to slowly move across into the NW Caribbean over the next 24 hours or so though...

as soon as 90E is over land, I do think its very possible the Nicaraguan low may take over and may have a decent shot at development (unfortunately) as long as it can get back over water. I'm very impressed with the signature and how it is sucking up *alot* of moisture from both the Caribbean and EPAC now.

[Cyclone1]

Honestly, I think it could develop over either basin right now. It's almost literally over the spine of Central America.

agreed --- but the Nicaraguan low looks to be nearly over land now, so that should slow any development. It's projected to slowly move across into the NW Caribbean over the next 24 hours or so though...

as soon as 90E is over land, I do think its very possible the Nicaraguan low may take over and may have a decent shot at development (unfortunately) as long as it can get back over water. I'm very impressed with the signature and how it is sucking up *alot* of moisture from both the Caribbean and EPAC now.

Well, this thing as a whole is so broad, it's all basically one giant system. I can see LLC's forming almost anywhere within the broad low. I think, either way, it'll end up in the Caribbean, it's moving northeastward.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS



12z NOGAPS is bullish in NW Caribbean and Southern GOM.

[KWT]

Quite possibly gatorcane, its a very complex situation simply because as cyclone1 has just said all these multiple lp centers are circulating around in one broad circulation and there is also alot of land interaction which is making it difficult for any one center to become established for long enough to beocme any significant. 90E has probably got enough time to beocme a TD but beyond that, probably not?