Global model runs discussion

[xcool22]

next ECMWF

[ROCK]

Interesting IVAN.....I always look to the CMC for storm formation first and foremost than any other model. Then I go to the GFS..once the storm is formed I track it with the EURO......

they seem to be sniffing something in the next 5 days or so....

[ROCK]

yeah we get favorable MJO pulse coming through around 20-24...that for sure will result in something out there...

well off to bed...no EURO watching for me tonight.....

[xcool22]

ROCK come on now...

[coreyl]

Has the EURO been showing development or anything else worth noting?

[BigA]

00 NOGAPS also hasSouthwest Caribbean development, moving it to the Nicaraguan coast.

[xcool22]

EURO 000% .

[floridasun78]

not thing on euro last run i think we could see break for week or so

[StormClouds63]

Looks like at least a 10-day "quiet" period ahead ... then hang on from the last week of July through mid-October ... it's going to be a "bumpy" ride.

If you live on or near the coast, use this "lull" to check your supplies and review your evacuation plans!

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian has a strengthening Caribbean cruiser

[StormClouds63]

[quote="Ivanhater"]12z Canadian has a strengthening Caribbean cruiser

Another low latitude (a.k.a. "low-rider") system? Could this be the trend for 2010 (somewhat similar to 2007)?

[Ivanhater]

12z Para GFS shows the same as the Canadian and Nogaps with bringing a system from the SW Caribbean..

GFS PARA sends a tropical storm into the BOC



This is the area to watch imo

[rockyman]

The Canadian is developing this storm from the tropical wave currently around 45N

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Rockyman..starts to take off in the SW Caribbean where the Nogaps and Para GFS want to form a system as well

[Ivanhater]

Also looking at the GFS, there are many highly amplified waves aiming in the general area of South Florida that originate form the African wave train. This pattern with the waves at this latitude and a high pressure area does not bode well for the U.S

[srainhoutx]

The para GFS has suggested this potential disturbance for several days now. Interesting to see some other 'guidance' sniffing this out as well.

[Aquawind]

Good points guys..

[ROCK]

The para GFS has suggested this potential disturbance for several days now. Interesting to see some other 'guidance' sniffing this out as well.

Uh, Steve I have trademarked the word "sniffed"...

If the CMC is seeing at 144hr as well as some other models it bears watching closely. I dont like low lat systems but it is July and the high looks strong.....todays EURO sees something around 196hr in the carib but doesnt develope it.

[hurricaneCW]

I hate BOC and SW Caribbean storms. They last a couple of days, they never get very strong and they are boring plus I doubt anything develops either because models have been all over the place. Only few disturbances ever actually develop meaning it's more fantasy than reality.

[KWT]

SW Caribbean storms don't get very strong...wow that is sipmly a mental statement to make!

Anyway if there was one location in the entire basin to keep an eye on in the next week it would be the SW Caribbean, quite a few models are hinting at something but whether or not they are overdoing it is somewhat uncertain.