ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Aric Dunn]

Actually, it looks like the pandhandle and into the SE might see the worst out of all this mess coming into the SE next week. The SW GOM crap will entrain IDA and all of her moisture it appears. No doubt the mainland will get moisture out of this, but the firehose of moisture will be directed at the SE *atleast initially*

right, but the models are split of it merging with it..
one interesting thing about the BOC system is the upper low that is over western BOC if that drops SW or WSW even a little that will open more of a favorable upper environment in the southern GUlf, that feature is very important.

[Sanibel]

There's been a weird twin storm phenomenon with Panama/EPAC twin Lows forming lately.



Shear is the ruling factor and will control what happens to Ida. I suspect we'll see a combination of Ida rebounding and increasing shear with an increase to hurricane and then shearing down to follow.

[ozonepete]

hey macro, what city in El Salvador are you in?

Antiguo Cuscatlan, part of Metro-San Salvador. Where the black arrow is pointing.

Edit: to stay on topic the rain has stopped and the sun is trying to shine but it's mosly cloudy.

Thanks, macro. Now I'll know where you are in relation to the big thunderstorms.

[Sanibel]

Look at the convection swoop back in to the SW side.

[Blown Away]

If this is the circulation center it is right of the NHC track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

Nope. It's right about where the trop points have it.


It's looking a little thin and weak down there right now. If it has anything left it should kaboom tonight.

[SouthFLTropics]

If this is the circulation center it is right of the NHC track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Looks like Ida might be trying to be Irene 99 part deux!

[Ivanhater]

The center will likely(already looks to be doing so) tighten up under the convection to the NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

[tpr1967]

:uarrow: Nope. It's right about where the trop points have it.


It's looking a little thin and weak down there right now. If it has anything left it should kaboom tonight.

I agree sanibel, center is right near nhc point near the coast.

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: Nope. It's right about where the trop points have it.


It's looking a little thin and weak down there right now. If it has anything left it should kaboom tonight.

No. the trop points are wrong again. It's northeast of the 07/0000Z trop point.

[Sanibel]

Too much shear for that - but who knows?

[gatorcane]

Is the center over water yet?

[tpr1967]

Not saying its right on schedule but is near the point near the coast thats all.

[wxman57]

Note where the heavier convection is developing - NW-NNW of the center. One general TC rule of thumb is that "the center follows the convection". That would support the current NNW forecast track.

[Decomdoug]

:uarrow: Nope. It's right about where the trop points have it.


It's looking a little thin and weak down there right now. If it has anything left it should kaboom tonight.

No. the trop points are wrong again. It's northeast of the 07/0000Z trop point.

I agree, looks to be just to the right of the NHC coastal plot.

[Sanibel]

Is the center over water yet?

Just emerging. Should be clear of the coast in a few hours. Look at the convection already tightening as it exits.

[Evil Jeremy]

Is the center over water yet?

Yes, has been for the past hour at least.

[Evil Jeremy]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 83.9W AT 06/2100Z


PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

EDIT: ...IDA EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

[Aric Dunn]

If this is the circulation center it is right of the NHC track.

So i must mention this.. I originally said it as moved from roughly 15 north to its present location in the image below or about 16.5 N in the last 3 to 4 hours which is rather fast around 22 mph ( from the NHC position) or if you take it from my earlier position that makes about 30 mph. So instead of a forward motion of that which is unlikely. the center has been pulled north or reformed under that convection.. I just needed to clear that up

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 062045
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

...IDA EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...

INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...110 KM...NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA SHOULD APPROACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO LATE
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND IDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON SATURDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.7N 83.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTNT41 KNHC 062045
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH IDA DURING THE DAY. SATELLITE
IMAGES STILL SHOW A RATHER ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT BANDING ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. NOW THAT IDA IS
OFFSHORE OVER VERY WARM WATERS...THE SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO RE-
INTENSIFY. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
STRENGTHEN IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WHERE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. SHEAR
IS LIKELY TO GET RATHER STRONG BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WITH COOLER WATERS PRESENT...SO WEAKENING
WILL BE SHOWN AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS
HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...THERE IS A LITTLE LESS
SPREAD THAN EARLIER. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID...AND REDUCES
THE INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IDA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH...360/7. THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TOMORROW DUE TO SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OR JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER IDA
ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A TRACK TOWARD THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY COMPLEX IN THE LONG
RANGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW IDA WILL INTERACT WITH
THAT TROUGH. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...THEN TURNING EASTWARD OR EVEN
SOUTH OF EAST. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT IDA WILL LIKELY BE
TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME...AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE QUITE VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TRANSITION.
THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AT THE LONG RANGE...BUT
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 15.7N 83.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 16.7N 84.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 17.9N 84.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 19.1N 85.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 20.6N 86.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 27.5N 87.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 27.5N 85.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE