ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

Maybe Jack (Beven) just made a mistake on the classification at hour 120? Easy to do. It would be like the NHC forecasting a depression to develop from a tropical wave 5 days in the future.

So, do you think we should move on to the next one or do you believe it could redevelop in the future. I'm asking because everything you say is pretty much dead on.

[Ivanhater]

I don't remember seeing a tropical storm degenerate and all the model guidance show intensification later on. The NHC is siding with that and showing regeneration. What an odd storm

[Gladstone]

This is one of the worst looking storms I've seen. I wouldnt be surprised if it breaks up before it reaches near us in the islands.

I'm not surprised at all. Colin is moving along at over 16 kts, almost unsustainable for a developing TC.

Colin is doing 21 kts (24mph.) In years of memory, I can recall developing storms make the crossing at this speed....but I remember none that ever exceeded 22kts.

It'll be interesting to see what his top speed reaches; and how he handles it if it climbs any higher.

Well.....we got our answer; 30kts (34mph) ---- holy crap! (And with predictable results.)

[Riptide]

I don't remember seeing a tropical storm degenerate and all the model guidance show intensification later on. The NHC is siding with that and showing regeneration. What an odd storm

http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/5846 ... early1.png

This is because NHC cannot classify it as a TC at this very moment due to a lack of significant west winds. I wouldn't be surprised to see it reclassified as a TC as early as tommorow morning.

The TUTT is way overrated IMO, this system has been flying in a shearless environment for days and nothing to speak of it.

[ncweatherwizard]

Maybe Jack (Beven) just made a mistake on the classification at hour 120? Easy to do. It would be like the NHC forecasting a depression to develop from a tropical wave 5 days in the future.

Nah. My impression of Jack is that he would be more careful than that. Bold call though. I'll tip my hat to FSU for an entire day if he gets this one.

[expat2carib]

I don't remember seeing a tropical storm degenerate and all the model guidance show intensification later on. The NHC is siding with that and showing regeneration. What an odd storm

IMHO It was never name worthy. We discussed never to rush into a TD# overnight because of many reasons earlier in this thread. Suddenly the name was there overnight.

[Riptide]

I don't remember seeing a tropical storm degenerate and all the model guidance show intensification later on. The NHC is siding with that and showing regeneration. What an odd storm

IMHO It was never name worthy. We discussed never to rush into a TD# overnight because of many reasons earlier in this thread. Suddenly the name was there overnight.

Well, they classified it as quickly as they dropped it.

[KWT]

Maybe Jack (Beven) just made a mistake on the classification at hour 120? Easy to do. It would be like the NHC forecasting a depression to develop from a tropical wave 5 days in the future.

Nah. My impression of Jack is that he would be more careful than that. Bold call though. I'll tip my hat to FSU for an entire day if he gets this one.

Hmmm, its bold for sure, but all the models show something in the Bahamas/ W.Atlantic and so whilst your right, I just think its the NHC looking at all the models and thinking it has half a shot. Personally I was very surprisied that they actually made it a forecast, I'd have thought they would have just mentioned it in the discussion instead.

ps, its no mistake btw:

THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HR AND CONTINUE AS A 30 KT REMNANT LOW THROUGH
96 HR. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE COULD REGENERATE INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SHOWN IN THE 120-HR FORECAST.

[Gladstone]

Kudos to those who earlier spotted the outrageous movement of the center.

Looking back I see 'Aric Dunn' first mentioned the odd position of the LLC; and then a bit later 'Blown Away' put up a sat view with a red circle showing the odd-placed center.

You guys were right-on.

[StormClouds63]

I know that it's still the C storm by the official NHC standards, but personally, I don't think it even deserved a name. I agree with what WXMAN said bout it. So in my own mind, we've only had an 'A' and 'B' storm this year...

Honestly, I'm not so sure about the "B" storm either.

[wxman57]

Maybe Jack (Beven) just made a mistake on the classification at hour 120? Easy to do. It would be like the NHC forecasting a depression to develop from a tropical wave 5 days in the future.

Nah. My impression of Jack is that he would be more careful than that. Bold call though. I'll tip my hat to FSU for an entire day if he gets this one.

Yeah, I know Jack. See him often at conventions/AMS meetings. Great meteorologist. It's just so strange to set that 120hr point to TD vs. Post-tropical.

[KWT]

I don't remember seeing a tropical storm degenerate and all the model guidance show intensification later on. The NHC is siding with that and showing regeneration. What an odd storm

http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/5846 ... early1.png

This is because NHC cannot classify it as a TC at this very moment due to a lack of significant west winds. I wouldn't be surprised to see it reclassified as a TC as early as tommorow morning.

The TUTT is way overrated IMO, this system has been flying in a shearless environment for days and nothing to speak of it.

The TUTT isn't the problem (YET) its the sAL outbreak, I said last night the system is getting hammered by easterly shear. Remember as Derek Ortt used to say, when you've got shear it helps to drive in the dry air...Colin was always doomed when that large SAL outbreak started to catch up to it.

[StormClouds63]

Like a previous poster said, Colin will return in 2016. No worries about retiring this one. Looking at the wide-scale WV image, it's hard to imagine a scenario where this regenerates, but I guess there's a very small chance (<5%).

Perhaps Danielle will be something to look at (and track) for more than a couple of days. Maybe she can defeat that shear monster. Except for that wave in the eastern Caribbean, doesn't seem to be a hint of anything else in the near-term. That wave is probably headed for central America.

Nothing else to do but wait and watch.

[Canelaw99]

Not thinking they're the same intensity-wise by any means, but I've been thinking about Andrew a lot with this storm. (for the record I wasn't in S FL then). Anyway, I'm hoping one of you knowledgeable mets/researchers can tell me how similar or not this seems to be. All I know is that at one point Andrew was basically gone then came back with a vengence. Just interested to see what the atmosphere waa then compared to now and the set-up of the storm then vs now I guess.

[Ivanhater]

As mentioned before, this could potentially be worse news for the U.S. If Colin had strengthened as forecast, it would likely make the connection with the trough. Now that it has opened up, it will likely keep moving on the westward path and with almost all the models showing strengthening after 72 hours, this could be interesting around the Bahamas.

Katrina got sheared to pieces but found great conditions once past the ULL. I for one will be watching this closely for the next couple of days because if it keeps a sharp wave axis, it will find favorable conditions as the models show...just my thoughts for now.

[KWT]

Yeah, if you have most models forecasting development from a wave in the atlantic I dare say most of the people will be on board...

So what is different here?

Sure it'll have to start totally again but we've seen plenty of waves have nothing and then 48-72hrs over decent conditions (which is probable even with a weak system given it WILL lift out to some extent even as a wave because the upper trough is pretty strong) end up developing, even if weakly. No reason for people to be so doubtful about conditions past 70W....but equally could just as easily end up being the end of Colin.

[South Texas Storms]

ivan i know this is a big if, but IF colin redevelops in a couple days...would it be a threat mainly to the east coast or the gulf? or is it still way too early to tell?

[supercane]

At first, I agreed with wxman57 that the TCD and the associated forecast for regeneration was just CYA. My first impression remains given the hostile environment, but one could argue that the NHC's forecast reflects a respect of the models. Of note, the forecast probability table shows nearly a nearly 50% probability of a TS or hurricane for almost all forecast periods and less than a 1 in 5 chance of dissipation even at 5 days. In this view, perhaps the forecast for a remnant low is the bold one?



PS, As fun as playing devil's advocate is: Naw, this is toast. Even if it did regenerate, not sure that you could claim it was the same system given what we have now.

PSS, wxman57, where's Bones?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Not thinking they're the same intensity-wise by any means, but I've been thinking about Andrew a lot with this storm. (for the record I wasn't in S FL then). Anyway, I'm hoping one of you knowledgeable mets/researchers can tell me how similar or not this seems to be. All I know is that at one point Andrew was basically gone then came back with a vengence. Just interested to see what the atmosphere waa then compared to now and the set-up of the storm then vs now I guess.

I had mentioned that point several days ago before it even got TD status, again I am not comparing Andrew with this, but as you point out Andrew was nothing then all of the sudden with the right conditions bam.

[StormTracker]

Yeah, the dissipation of Colin just happened too fast! I don't think he's gonna give up that easily. Even though I'd like something to track, I hope he doesn't find that sweet spot near the Bahamas or even further south in the Fla. Straits as some storms in the past have proven to be just what the doctor ordered for a cane to form quickly!