ATL: IRENE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#1121 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:24 pm

H+132 entering FL straights...looks like a possible hit on SE FL



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal132.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1122 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:24 pm

132 hours coming off Cuba into FL Straits.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Re:

#1123 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:24 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
gatorcane wrote:it's slightly more east on this run by day 4-5...but not by much from the 18Z...gonna be a close call if it takes the trough north or not....


oh its taking it this run


Looks very reluctant to go into the weakness :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2811
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:
Contact Hybridstorm_November2001

Re: Re:

#1124 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:25 pm

Rgv20 wrote:
Kory wrote:The GFS is not wanting to move the death ridge over Texas as fast as it has been.


Sadly it has been the theme this summer with long range guidance in showing the ridge braking down but never verifying.......but its going to have to give up sometime.. :cry:


Indeed, I still clearly recall how the Death Ridge killed TS Don, now that was nearly unbelievable. :double:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#1125 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:25 pm

H+138 heading over FL straights and intensifying...SE of Miami,,

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal138.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1126 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:25 pm

Image

Dangerous area for intensification
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Top
Kory
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 200
Age: 29
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:32 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana

#1127 Postby Kory » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:26 pm

Moving NNW into the weakness and ridge still isn't moving...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 39
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#1128 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:26 pm

So far 0zGFS is very close to the 12zECMWF in regards to track.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1129 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:26 pm

Looks like it's gonna run up the east coast this run...so much for getting some consistency.
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

#1130 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:26 pm

Haha.. Flip-flop. Crazy
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

#1131 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:26 pm

A track 50 miles farther NE or SW of the 00Z would have the circulation offshore of Cuba, which would make a big difference in intensity. This is gunna be one hard storm to forecast...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#1132 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:27 pm

Hmmm so between hours 114 and 132 it goes from 997MB to 993MB over the high mountains of Cuba....I don't think so.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1133 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:27 pm

Image
144 hrs
Getting stronger heading for Miami. :eek:
Last edited by Blown Away on Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#1134 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:27 pm

H+144 Intensifying, about to make landfall over SFL....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal144.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1135 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:27 pm

Image

:eek:
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#1136 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:28 pm

H+150 bombing out over SFL...



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal150.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1137 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:28 pm

Image

:eek: :eek: :eek:
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1138 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:29 pm

CMC, GFDL then the EURO on tap for tonight still
0 likes   
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2147
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1139 Postby Steve H. » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:29 pm

Well the good thing is, the old saying is generally true, that when it's gonna come to your house in east central Florida according to the models at first glance, it generally ends up going somewhere else. :flag:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1140 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:29 pm

Image :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests