ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

caneman · #1121 Postby **caneman** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 6:53 am

From the wording, it looks like it will go right to T.S.

hurricanefloyd5 · #1122 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 6:53 am

something is going on because the TWO is late coming out

caneman · #1123 Postby **caneman** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 6:54 am

brunota2003 wrote:Wouldn't it be something if the GFS verified?

You have to credit them for at least being the most consistent so far and not really flip flopping.

#1124 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 6:55 am

caneman wrote:From the wording, it looks like it will go right to T.S.

AND A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS PRODUCED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

Given that data, yes.

#1125 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 6:58 am

Visible

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

#1126 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 6:58 am

Going to be a long weekend :double:

#1127 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 6:58 am

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:something is going on because the TWO is late coming out

the coffee run was a little late so is the two, i wouldn't read anything into a little lateness..the system is right on schedule

CYCLONE MIKE · #1128 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 6:58 am

If shear would let up this would have a chance.Like NHC said the center is becoming much better defined as apparent on visible this morning.Just cant get anything to wrap north and west yet. Surprised they didn't mention anything about the shear. Is it supposed to calm down any today?

#1129 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:01 am

NDG wrote:I am still tracking that little eddy that was spotted yesterday evening, is now heading NE, located near 24.4N & 87.5W
Looks to definetely be rotating around a larger ciculation near 25.2N & 88W

The more I watch the sat loop the more I think that the COC is closer to 87.7 W

#1130 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:01 am

Pretty easy to see now, tiny.

#1131 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:01 am

caneman wrote:
GCANE wrote:
ronjon wrote:That ULL is actually helping ventilate the storm to the north. Shear near the center has actually dropped off to less than 10 kts. This appearance I think is typical of June storms - lopsided. But things might start coming together for development today. Is it me or did the COC move NE overnight?

The other ULL at 28N 67W also aiding ventilation

Looks to be steering it more Northerly though doesn't it??

Yeah, I think it is helping to provide a path to steer it more due north currently. I was rather surprised to see this Upper Level Low form seemingly out of nowhere on WV imagery early this morning.

#1132 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:02 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think they are going to wait for the recon flight that is scheduled to depart in four hours before they do anything, maybe issue a near 100% TWO if the plane finds a dominant COC with convection and TS-force winds and then upgrade it at 5pm EDT.

#1133 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:05 am

It sure looks pretty far north and east already but well see how the models do today.

TheBurn · #1134 Postby **TheBurn** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:05 am

11:45 UTC RGB

#1135 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:05 am

And the mission for this afternoon is a go.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

#1136 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:05 am

A lot of shear.

#1137 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:11 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:If shear would let up this would have a chance.Like NHC said the center is becoming much better defined as apparent on visible this morning.Just cant get anything to wrap north and west yet. Surprised they didn't mention anything about the shear. Is it supposed to calm down any today?

The ECMWF did a nice job a few days ago of forecasting the ULL in the NW GOM to create the SW shear across the northern gulf.
Now the same model is forecasting it to slide to the SW towards southern TX/northern MX away from 96L over the next few days, to create a little better environment for it, still not the best but definetely better, starting tomorrow into at least Tuesday.

CYCLONE MIKE · #1138 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:12 am

What's the shear forecast look like for the weekend? Any let up at all?

caneman · #1139 Postby **caneman** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:12 am

NDG wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:If shear would let up this would have a chance.Like NHC said the center is becoming much better defined as apparent on visible this morning.Just cant get anything to wrap north and west yet. Surprised they didn't mention anything about the shear. Is it supposed to calm down any today?

The ECMWF did a nice job a few days ago of forecasting the ULL in the NW GOM to create the SW shear across the northern gulf.
Now the same model is forecasting it to slide to the SW towards southern TX/northern MX away from 96L over the next few days, to create a little better environment for it, still not the best but definetely better, starting tomorrow into at least Tuesday.

Doesn't look to be that much shear. Seems to be aiding right now.

#1140 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:13 am

Ivanhater wrote:It sure looks pretty far north and east already but well see how the models do today.

The more north it goes then Texas is out of it,or the high blocks it and turns that way?

ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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