Texas Summer 2017

[weatherdude1108]

DFW hits 100 for the 8th time

When is fall? I just knew it was too early for summer to be over...

GFS again says a lot more 100's to come...

8th time to hit 100??? What are you all complaining about?

Austin has hit 100 31 times this Summer. They said Friday is expected to make number 32.

Granted you all have had a ton more rain this Summer than we have had, so the temperatures are moisture-moderated up there, but the "stickiness" factor is probably off the chart there too.

I've noticed the more oppressive humidity the last couple days here, after the heavy Monday rains. Heat advisories up today here as evaporation kicks in. Looking forward to Fall!!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Crazy how a little bit of distance changes so much. I don't think we have even gotten close to 8 days of 100. However, the humidity has been terrible.

[Ralph's Weather]

Tyler has hit 100 once and and hit 95 5 times this summer with >14" of rain since 6/1. Humidity has been terrible of course.

[JDawg512]

I wouldn't be surprised if we go the rest of August with little to no rain. As Ntxw says, we need to look towards the Pacific off the west coast of Mexico rather than the Gulf of Mexico. Of course this isn't the time of year that we would see moisture plums being drawn up. Will need to wait at least another month.

As far as why we don't get as much relief as other areas along the gulf, several valid points have already been made so I won't get into it too much but latitude also plays a role as well as our location relative to the gulf. The 30th Parallel cuts right through Texas, just a tiny bit south of Austin. As we all know most of the northern hemisphere deserts ring around the planet along the 30th due to sinking air. The I-35 corridor is lucky enough to be fairly close to the gulf plus the Balcones Escarpment helps to enhance rainfall along the corridor. The farther west, the drier it gets.... <----See what I did there

Our location relative to the gulf is not as conducive as areas along the northern and eastern sides mainly because the dominant winds across the gulf are generally out of the south. Since this is the western side, our southern winds aren't straight off the water. We need southesterly and easterly winds to be dominant, then we would have much more moisture moving in and get heavier sea breezes.

[JDawg512]

There are a couple of stray showers in the area, notably in Williamson County. A bit of sea breeze activity to the east but nothing major. 98 here at the Rain Miser's den. Hibernation here I come.

[weatherdude1108]

There are a couple of stray showers in the area, notably in Williamson County. A bit of sea breeze activity to the east but nothing major. 98 here at the Rain Miser's den. Hibernation here I come.

Thanks for the update! I just saw those stray showers, just north of my house! I'm at work, so I'm not sure if I got anything or not. Looks like maybe a sprinkle or two based on radar, but not field-verified. I always like those surprises, no matter how miserable the forecast.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like a stormy and wet weekend for those north of I20, esp. tomorrow.



Also, some nice discussion on the last couple of pages. Hopefully, I have some time later to chime in.

[Cpv17]

I wouldn't be surprised if we go the rest of August with little to no rain. As Ntxw says, we need to look towards the Pacific off the west coast of Mexico rather than the Gulf of Mexico. Of course this isn't the time of year that we would see moisture plums being drawn up. Will need to wait at least another month.

As far as why we don't get as much relief as other areas along the gulf, several valid points have already been made so I won't get into it too much but latitude also plays a role as well as our location relative to the gulf. The 30th Parallel cuts right through Texas, just a tiny bit south of Austin. As we all know most of the northern hemisphere deserts ring around the planet along the 30th due to sinking air. The I-35 corridor is lucky enough to be fairly close to the gulf plus the Balcones Escarpment helps to enhance rainfall along the corridor. The farther west, the drier it gets.... <----See what I did there

Our location relative to the gulf is not as conducive as areas along the northern and eastern sides mainly because the dominant winds across the gulf are generally out of the south. Since this is the western side, our southern winds aren't straight off the water. We need southesterly and easterly winds to be dominant, then we would have much more moisture moving in and get heavier sea breezes.

I would argue that a big reason why TX stays relatively hot and dry compared to other Gulf locations is due to the fact that the majority of the time the jet stream remains in a zonal flow and as you suggested the main flow off the Gulf is from the south. Due to the combination of both of those then it would only make sense for the moisture to pile up to points east of here.

[Ntxw]

DFW hit 100 again today. Which model had 100s 7 days ago?

Edit: Not 7 days but on the August 5th 0z (6th utc) run GFS had DFW 100 today

Austin Mabry also hit 100..again

[bubba hotep]

The last two days urban heat island assisted 100's? Airport just touches 100 while surrounding areas are mid to upper 90s.

[Ntxw]

UHI definitely played a role. But also there is a weak boundary crossing the northern counties they are cooler and closer to the Red River even more from the early morning outflow cooled air from the southern Oklahoma rain complex. South of the weak boundary is warmer. East Texas has seen some spotty showers and clouds.



I drew a blue line of roughly where the boundary is, you can see from the change of wind direction on either side



That boundary is going to basically remain in place for awhile. South of it is strongly influenced by the ridge, north of it much cooler and passing shower activity.

[JDawg512]

I wouldn't be surprised if we go the rest of August with little to no rain. As Ntxw says, we need to look towards the Pacific off the west coast of Mexico rather than the Gulf of Mexico. Of course this isn't the time of year that we would see moisture plums being drawn up. Will need to wait at least another month.

As far as why we don't get as much relief as other areas along the gulf, several valid points have already been made so I won't get into it too much but latitude also plays a role as well as our location relative to the gulf. The 30th Parallel cuts right through Texas, just a tiny bit south of Austin. As we all know most of the northern hemisphere deserts ring around the planet along the 30th due to sinking air. The I-35 corridor is lucky enough to be fairly close to the gulf plus the Balcones Escarpment helps to enhance rainfall along the corridor. The farther west, the drier it gets.... <----See what I did there

Our location relative to the gulf is not as conducive as areas along the northern and eastern sides mainly because the dominant winds across the gulf are generally out of the south. Since this is the western side, our southern winds aren't straight off the water. We need southesterly and easterly winds to be dominant, then we would have much more moisture moving in and get heavier sea breezes.

I would argue that a big reason why TX stays relatively hot and dry compared to other Gulf locations is due to the fact that the majority of the time the jet stream remains in a zonal flow and as you suggested the main flow off the Gulf is from the south. Due to the combination of both of those then it would only make sense for the moisture to pile up to points east of here.

Yea that pesky zonal flow most certainly adds to the equation.

Ha! EWX posted the afternoon discussion unusually early. They probably just wanted to get it out of the way since nothing is going on.

[bubba hotep]

Yea, that boundary shows up nicely on GOES16, been watching it this afternoon thinking we might eek out a shower but looks like it's going to slide just far enough south to keep us dry up here in Collin County.

[Ntxw]

3K NAM has some complex activity perhaps riding that boundary from the WNW tomorrow evening. Lets see if we can get lucky

[bubba hotep]

Looks like a cell to the south and another to the west of the airport, can't win at that rain gauge lol

ETA: Downtown Dallas is getting a nice soaking out of this

[Brent]

Models look good for tomorrow evening/night so far around DFW, but we'll see how it goes.

Hope it verifies because summer appears to return with full force after Sunday

[bubba hotep]

Slight expanded southward to include most of DFW now

[Ntxw]

Stationary front is still where it was yesterday. The complex to the N and W will likely focus along and just north of that boundary this afternoon. Pwats are =~2.

[bubba hotep]

Texas Tech WRF looks pretty good for DFW. Storms along the boundary this afternoon and then a decent looking MCS moving through over night with storms lingering into Sunday.

[Portastorm]

Yesterday, Camp Mabry reached 100 degrees for the 32nd time in 2017. Over the last 10 years, we have a wide spectrum of triple digit heat days although the overall trend over the last 20 years is rising. Here's a look over the last 10 years:

2007 – 3
2008 – 50
2009 – 68
2010 – 22
2011 – 90
2012 – 35
2013 – 42
2014 – 21
2015 – 24
2016 – 24
2017 - 32 (so far)