ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

So much for the 48hrs until it became a major again. Irma looks more impressive now than it did before the EWRC.

And also much bigger too...

Yeah I am not sure why the NHC went with their forecast intensity. clearly the dry air analized a couple days ago did not materialize nor are the sst's cooler than 27c. environment and conditions can support a major hurricane.

[rickybobby]

Per wesh 2 it should track east of the Bahamas. They did a historical hurricane pattern since 1950 and where Irma is none of come to Florida. They should have a good idea on Monday night if Florida should prepare.

[Aric Dunn]

Also the gfs continues to show a weaker ridge intially than is in place now and thus weakens it even more and allow then wnw to nw turn to happen suddenly...

[AxaltaRacing24]

Also the gfs continues to show a weaker ridge intially than is in place now and thus weakens it even more and allow then wnw to nw turn to happen suddenly...

And it still comes close to FL...

[Aric Dunn]

It appears to have turned west in the last couple hours.

[tgenius]

It appears to have turned west in the last couple hours.

Aric, but isn't that right on schedule for the west shift? The WSW shift is supposed to start tomorrow according to forecasts, the real question is how far before the direction change?

[Aric Dunn]

It appears to have turned west in the last couple hours.

Aric, but isn't that right on schedule for the west shift? The WSW shift is supposed to start tomorrow according to forecasts, the real question is how far before the direction change?

yes

[Hurricane Andrew]

On the CIMSS page, Irma appears to be slightly north of the forecasted path...any implications down the line?

[txwatcher91]

On the CIMSS page, Irma appears to be slightly north of the forecasted path...any implications down the line?

Try the NHC floater Page. You can plot the forecast points on there and it appears right on track.

[KWT]

Yep ,motion has returned to near due west, pretty much right on track as well according to the models.

Also eye is just starting to remerge again s some steady strengthening seems possible. The SSTs aren't amazingly high, but should be good enough to get back to 100kts if it contracts the eye.

Things looking better for the Ne Caribbean today, but could be a close call, just depends on whether the models have it correctly pegged in terms of the upper high and how quickly it erodes.

[Hurricane Andrew]

SSTs are pegged to increase after the D2-D3 period, and could hit 30-31C in the mid to long range, more than enough to sustain a very powerful hurricane.

[tolakram]

[KWT]

Per wesh 2 it should track east of the Bahamas. They did a historical hurricane pattern since 1950 and where Irma is none of come to Florida. They should have a good idea on Monday night if Florida should prepare.

Yep, but I bet if they do that same test in 72hrs time it will look VERY different, plenty of major hurricane have gone where Irma is forecasted to be at 120hrs for example!

[txwatcher91]

Something I've noticed that is consistent on ALL the models.. As this near the Bahamas or north of them, the pressure gradient will increase due to the strong HP to the north and east of the system.. and it appears the storm may really grow in size as well by then. The storm surge and wind field is MASSIVE on all the models, check out this link and see what I mean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eus_41.png

[SouthFLTropics]

Something I've noticed that is consistent on ALL the models.. As this near the Bahamas or north of them, the pressure gradient will increase due to the strong HP to the north and east of the system.. and it appears the storm may really grow in size as well by then. The storm surge and wind field is MASSIVE on all the models, check out this link and see what I mean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eus_41.png

If that plays out as modeled rip currents and beach erosion along the Eastern seaboard is going to be very bad.

[txwatcher91]

Something I've noticed that is consistent on ALL the models.. As this near the Bahamas or north of them, the pressure gradient will increase due to the strong HP to the north and east of the system.. and it appears the storm may really grow in size as well by then. The storm surge and wind field is MASSIVE on all the models, check out this link and see what I mean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eus_41.png

If that plays out as modeled rip currents and beach erosion along the Eastern seaboard is going to be very bad.

Yes that's my concern, even if this goes OTS and stays away from the CONUS, the large windfield will cause a lot of problems up and down the coast. IF it does in fact make landfall somewhere, the surge will be really bad.

[stormreader]

Tho it's hard not to get caught up in the run to run model swings.

No, it's really easy. Just don't pay much attention to them. I never even look at them or the Model threads in general. I wait for NHC to make their forecasts and go with those.

And at this point, I do look at the model runs posted by others, but I take them as simply early trends, no more, no less. They don't mean a whole lot just yet. At 7 days, they mean more. At 5 days significantly more. But 10 days.....everything can change in 10 days!

[Blown Away]

[Aric Dunn]

Tho it's hard not to get caught up in the run to run model swings.

No, it's really easy. Just don't pay much attention to them. I never even look at them or the Model threads in general. I wait for NHC to make their forecasts and go with those.

And at this point, I do look at the model runs posted by others, but I take them as simply early trends, no more, no less. They don't mean a whole lot just yet. At 7 days, they mean more. At 5 days significantly more. But 10 days.....everything can change in 10 days!

it changes day to day.. and so does the NHC>>

[Weatherboy1]

Something I've noticed that is consistent on ALL the models.. As this near the Bahamas or north of them, the pressure gradient will increase due to the strong HP to the north and east of the system.. and it appears the storm may really grow in size as well by then. The storm surge and wind field is MASSIVE on all the models, check out this link and see what I mean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eus_41.png

This is a good point. We could end up with a system that is more "Floyd-esque" in size, if not in track (too soon to say, for instance, if this will be a FL threat, NC threat, or no U.S. threat)