ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[fox13weather]

I can't find a single hurricane that was near Florence's current position that did not head out to sea...

[MacTavish]

Gordon remnants are going to be a major key player after day 4.

Do you mind elaborating on why this is the case? I'm usually just a board lurker and usually feel silly asking meteorological questions that other board members probably all know the answer to.

From what I'm seeing, Gordon's remaining vort merges with a shortwave over the central united states and is eventually what leaves the weakness over the NE which Florence escapes towards.
To me, the 12z GFS is perfectly believable. It does not take Florence straight into a ridge.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eus&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018090612&fh=84

[AxaltaRacing24]

I can't find a single hurricane that was near Florence's current position that did not head out to sea...

There’s a first for everything though.

[edu2703]

I can't find a single hurricane that was near Florence's current position that did not head out to sea...

You're right, but there's always a first time for everything

[AdamFirst]

Guess I can mark 'New York landfall' on my Model Run Bingo Card...

[plasticup]

I can't find a single hurricane that was near Florence's current position that did not head out to sea...

Plenty of things have never happened until they do.

[tolakram]

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS = mostly useless at this time. This is absurd.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=168

Not entirely. Intensity? Maybe. But the angle of the ridge axis would allow an opening up the east coast like that.

I gotta disagree 100% FLpanhandle91. If anything, it may have the intensity close to being right. The angle it depicts on the ridge won't be right anyway. But there's no way it barrels into it like that. The height lines are too tall, and it would have to retreat even though GFS shows it building in as the storm arrives. It would never make it north of the VA Capes to begin with the scenario it depicts. I'm not usually a big GFS basher, but when it's bad, it's bad.

I understand your point. It just seems to me as though the ridge positioning for this GFS run begins change head of the storm rather than Florence plowing through it. CMC ridge axis remains a bit more steady east west and prevents an escape.

[hohnywx]

Guess I can mark 'New York landfall' on my Model Run Bingo Card...

A landfall on E LI would be much preferable for NYC proper than the Sandy doomsday scenario. Not that the tri-state area wants either.

[tolakram]

For fun, weather.us actually keeps archived model runs.

Here's the GFS run from Sept 4th at 150 hours. Irma already modeled to get very close to Cuba before recurving into Florida.

https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/2017090400/usa-east/sea-level-pressure/20170910-0600z.html

[Hurricaneman]

Even though from a different angle the path up the eastern seaboard is not much different between the Euro, and GFS up to 40n so southern New England and Long Island need to watch this carefully and possibly the mid Atlantic states

[tomatkins]

Gordon remnants are going to be a major key player after day 4.

Do you mind elaborating on why this is the case? I'm usually just a board lurker and usually feel silly asking meteorological questions that other board members probably all know the answer to.

From what I'm seeing, Gordon's remaining vort merges with a shortwave over the central united states and is eventually what leaves the weakness over the NE which Florence escapes towards.
To me, the 12z GFS is perfectly believable. It does not take Florence straight into a ridge.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eus&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018090612&fh=84

Also - the model then basically stalls the storm out off of NJ. Its not like it plows due north at 40 mph.

[plasticup]

Guess I can mark 'New York landfall' on my Model Run Bingo Card...

A landfall on E LI would be much preferable for NYC proper than the Sandy doomsday scenario. Not that the tri-state area wants either.

The difference is that Sandy Category 1. GFS is showing a major (3/4) just offshore. The Northeast has only once ever seen that kind of storm, and it was 80 years ago.

And that 1938 storm was fast moving. GFS shows a massive and slow-moving storm lingering offshore. It would undoubtedly be the worst storm that city has ever seen.

[tolakram]

Ah, here was what I was looking for.

GFS had a NY hit on the 9/2 6Z run *fixed link*

https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/2017090206/usa-east/sea-level-pressure/20170910-1200z.html

[Hurricaneman]

Also that GFS run would be a major flood event for southern New England and Long Island

[hohnywx]

Guess I can mark 'New York landfall' on my Model Run Bingo Card...

A landfall on E LI would be much preferable for NYC proper than the Sandy doomsday scenario. Not that the tri-state area wants either.

The difference is that Sandy Category 1. GFS is showing a major (3/4) just offshore. The Northeast has only once ever seen that kind of storm, and it was 80 years ago.

Technically, Sandy was post-tropical and had merged with a front. But the angle of approach to the coast spelled disaster for NY Harbor and the NJ Shore.

[Ken711]

I'm betting the Euro will also trend west today on the 12z as the GFS has.

[Bocadude85]

For fun, weather.us actually keeps archived model runs.

Here's the GFS run from Sept 4th at 150 hours. Irma already modeled to get very close to Cuba before recurving into Florida.

https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/2017090400/usa-east/sea-level-pressure/20170910-0600z.html

The GFS went from a Maryland hit on 9/2/17 to a Cuba hit on 9/4/17....that’s quite a shift..

[tolakram]

GFS still going, moving due south and weak.

[fox13weather]

I can't find a single hurricane that was near Florence's current position that did not head out to sea...

Plenty of things have never happened until they do.

Maybe. We will see. The power of climatology is strong.