ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Structurally, the storm is pretty messy (which was surprising). Tail Doppler radar analyses showed the southern half of the circulation was barely closed at a height of 1 km. All the strong winds are on the northern half with very weak winds on the southern half. This will have to change to see RI from this point. I think this is why Air Force fixes show the pressure is steady or even rising slightly. It's strange because the storm looks pretty good on satellite.

Why do you think that is? Doesn't seem to be moving too fast and the storm seems relatively well stacked (although think the elliptical eye usually means there is some misalignment).

Looks like some mid-level dry air entrainment to me.

[tolakram]

Saved loop

[cheezyWXguy]

Welp, there’s the eye, technically… It’s really more that the dry air made its way to the center, but those storms moving up the feeder from the south should help mix it out eventually.

[tolakram]

Welp, there’s the eye, technically… It’s really more that the dry air made its way to the center, but those storms moving up the feeder from the south should help mix it out eventually.

Dry air patch IMO, evident on the low level WV loop.

[hipshot]

Welp, there’s the eye, technically… It’s really more that the dry air made its way to the center, but those storms moving up the feeder from the south should help mix it out eventually.

Dry air patch IMO, evident on the low level WV loop.

https://imgur.com/UZQ63Y7

To my untrained eye, it looks as if Grace is pushing that dry air our of the way.

[cheezyWXguy]

Welp, there’s the eye, technically… It’s really more that the dry air made its way to the center, but those storms moving up the feeder from the south should help mix it out eventually.

Dry air patch IMO, evident on the low level WV loop.

https://imgur.com/UZQ63Y7

Very much agreed. The first part of my comment was more tongue-in-cheek. I do think that’s the center though

[AtlanticWind]

Looking at the latest loops I think Grace will intensify to least 100 mph before landfall.
Looks like an eye feature developing , I think it will be a strengthening Hurricane right
up to landfall.

[skyline385]

So looks like the pressure dropped by 5mb in 12 hours and it slightly went up again. Yea good for Cancun, this storm isn't going to be much, probably a Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 and they have good infrastructure over there to easily handle it..

[Deshaunrob17]

I had a feeling yesterday this would have been more of a steady intensification.. I was watching the lots of dry air behind Grace, but does not seem to be much of a hindrance. I was watching the TUTT too which seems to be more impacting Grace. However, the shear isn't super strong so unlikely to see weakening, just that intensification would be steady
My bet is 85 to 100mph at landfall in Yucatan

[hipshot]

I had a feeling yesterday this would have been more of a steady intensification.. I was watching the lots of dry air behind Grace, but does not seem to be much of a hindrance. I was watching the TUTT too which seems to be more impacting Grace. However, the shear isn't super strong so unlikely to see weakening, just that intensification would be steady
My bet is 85 to 100mph at landfall in Yucatan

Anyone have an updated cone?

[captainbarbossa19]

I had a feeling yesterday this would have been more of a steady intensification.. I was watching the lots of dry air behind Grace, but does not seem to be much of a hindrance. I was watching the TUTT too which seems to be more impacting Grace. However, the shear isn't super strong so unlikely to see weakening, just that intensification would be steady
My bet is 85 to 100mph at landfall in Yucatan

Anyone have an updated cone?

[hipshot]

I had a feeling yesterday this would have been more of a steady intensification.. I was watching the lots of dry air behind Grace, but does not seem to be much of a hindrance. I was watching the TUTT too which seems to be more impacting Grace. However, the shear isn't super strong so unlikely to see weakening, just that intensification would be steady
My bet is 85 to 100mph at landfall in Yucatan

Anyone have an updated cone?

https://i.imgur.com/c8S0bOX.png

Thanks, I was wondering if there had been a more northerly component to it since it seemed to be moving more that way.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z best track up to 70 knots; Grace is intensifying.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z best track up to 70 knots; Grace is intensifying.

I wonder how they derived that. Moisture is definitely making its way back into the core, but it’s got a ways to go build back that cdo. If anything I would guess it has dropped down slightly to around 60kt

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT22 KNES 181804
TCSNTL

A. 07L (GRACE)

B. 18/1730Z

C. 19.5N

D. 83.2W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY AND EMBEDDED IN DG
RESULTING IN AN EYE PATTERN DT OF 4.5. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP CONVECTION
IS PERSISTING TO OCCUR AROUND THE EYE IN THE NE QUADRANT, HOWEVER,
CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING IN THE SE QUADRANT INDICATING POSSIBLE DRY
AIR INTRUSION. THE 24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING. MET AND PT ARE UNDEFINED
DUE TO SYSTEM BEING ON LAND 24 HRS AGO. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[cycloneye]

Already chasers are in parts of Yucatán waiting for Grace.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1428062265820028929

[aspen]

Grace’s intensification has been nowhere near what was feared last night, and it’ll probably stay as a Cat 1 or maybe a 2 at most in the WCar. Good for the Yucatán, but not so much for Veracruz.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Grace’s intensification has been nowhere near what was feared last night, and it’ll probably stay as a Cat 1 or maybe a 2 at most in the WCar. Good for the Yucatán, but not so much for Veracruz.

This leveling off was predicted though. It'll ramp again and make a cat 2 push tonight into tomorrow am. But yeah it is a bit too early in the season for a cat 4-5 here.

[Iceresistance]

Grace’s intensification has been nowhere near what was feared last night, and it’ll probably stay as a Cat 1 or maybe a 2 at most in the WCar. Good for the Yucatán, but not so much for Veracruz.

This leveling off was predicted though. It'll ramp again and make a cat 2 push tonight into tomorrow am. But yeah it is a bit too early in the season for a cat 4-5 here.

Unless it goes like Delta did in 2020, have a pinhole eye & compact core . . .

[Homie J]

Grace’s intensification has been nowhere near what was feared last night, and it’ll probably stay as a Cat 1 or maybe a 2 at most in the WCar. Good for the Yucatán, but not so much for Veracruz.

This leveling off was predicted though. It'll ramp again and make a cat 2 push tonight into tomorrow am. But yeah it is a bit too early in the season for a cat 4-5 here.

Unless it goes like Delta did in 2020, have a pinhole eye & compact core . . .

Totally realistic. /s