Texas Spring 2025

[Ntxw]

I wish the Mexican desert was not so close. Ugh.

Wednesday is going to suck. I downplayed it, but it looks legit at this point. Wow.

Hope the stormy shift at the end of the month happens so we get one more round before summer hell.

We'll see if 100F actually occurs. If it does, note in May of 2022 and 2023 as hot as they were we did not achieve 100F or greater. Heights aren't that impressive so crazy to see such temps. Short but very sharp heat spell.

[gpsnowman]

I wish the Mexican desert was not so close. Ugh.

Wednesday is going to suck. I downplayed it, but it looks legit at this point. Wow.

Hope the stormy shift at the end of the month happens so we get one more round before summer hell.

Way too early for this b.s. Similarly I didn't think 100 was reality but damn it appears to be legit. Disgusting.

[Stratton23]

Still no rain chances really showing in the models, this pattern sucks

[aggiecutter]

[wxman22]

Still no rain chances really showing in the models, this pattern sucks

I'm assuming you a referring to SE Texas. As models have been consistently showing storms here for several days now, starting this weekend and beyond. OUN already has rain chances at 40-50% for next Sunday. The upcoming pattern looks favorable for severe weather in the northern half of the state.

[Brent]

The all time high for Austin is only 112

Set at the end of August early September

Yeah I know it's short lived up here but yikes

[Texoz]

The all time high for Austin is only 112

Set at the end of August early September

Yeah I know it's short lived up here but yikes

NWS has 6 days of 100 or 100+ forecast for this heatwave in Austin. The prior record for most 100 degree days in ATX in May was 3 days in 2011. We all know how 2011 turned out.

[Cpv17]

Still no rain chances really showing in the models, this pattern sucks

I'm assuming you a referring to SE Texas. As models have been consistently showing storms here for several days now, starting this weekend and beyond. OUN already has rain chances at 40-50% for next Sunday. The upcoming pattern looks favorable for severe weather in the northern half of the state.

The majority of the state will be dry over the next 10 days.

[ElectricStorm]

Need to watch the May 18-20 range for dryline severe setup potential. Both GFS and Euro are hinting at a multi-day event, especially for Sun-Mon (5/18-19). Still nearly a week out so things can and probably will change but something to keep an eye on at least.

[wxman22]

Need to watch the May 18-20 range for dryline severe setup potential. Both GFS and Euro are hinting at a multi-day event, especially for Sun-Mon (5/18-19). Still nearly a week out so things can and probably will change but something to keep an eye on at least.

Yep.

D6/Sunday to D8/Tuesday...
A deepening upper level trough over the western states will promote
several days of lee troughing/cyclogenesis across the southern to
central High Plains beginning this weekend. This will allow for more
seasonal moisture return into the Plains with most ensemble members
showing dewpoints climbing into the low to mid 60s by D6/Sunday
afternoon across TX, OK, and southern KS. Deterministic solutions
continue to vary regarding the exact timing and evolution of the
upper-level wave (and any embedded impulses), but the general
consensus is that severe thunderstorms will be possible as
upper-level disturbances overspread the Plains and promote eastward
mixing of the dryline into an increasingly buoyant warm sector.
Confidence on any particular day remains too limited for risk
probabilities, but the overall synoptic regime and convective QPF
signals in ensemble guidance suggest that the potential for multiple
rounds of severe thunderstorms is increasing for the
southern/central Plains beginning D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday.

[rwfromkansas]

Seems like NWS going a bit lower. I’m now 99. But FW core still 100.

I will take 99.

[TomballEd]

Looking at the high res guidance NAM and HRRR, a significant temperature (~5F) across the Balcones Escarpment (I-35) in Central Texas corresponding to something of a dry line with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s to one side and 60s and 70sF on the other (I say something of a dryline, the actual wind shift is further W).

[Stratton23]

Models are starting to pick up on a back door front moving into the state in the 9-10 day range, hopefully that will break this upcoming heatwave and provide our next best chance for rain, other than west texas storms from the dry line

[TomballEd]

Models are starting to pick up on a back door front moving into the state in the 9-10 day range, hopefully that will break this upcoming heatwave and provide our next best chance for rain, other than west texas storms from the dry line

Most rain threats more than a week out have failed to materialize. Not all of them. But most.

[Edwards Limestone]

Once the drought feedback sets in over the Hill Country, it'll be just like 2011.

[Pas_Bon]

Models are starting to pick up on a back door front moving into the state in the 9-10 day range, hopefully that will break this upcoming heatwave and provide our next best chance for rain, other than west texas storms from the dry line

I'm not falling for any model runs outside of 5 days again. This Summer already sucks and it hasn't even started.

[Ntxw]

You would think with the height levels at 500 millibars the pattern shouldn't be this extreme with the heat. However I guess with the drought ongoing in the south and western parts of the state especially in the Hill Country and along the southern Rio Grande River, it makes sense that feedback is where the epicenter of this heat will be.

[Stratton23]

Not really sure why noaa is favoring above normal precipitation for almost the whole state in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, that gulf ridge is really going to squash rain chances unless you live in north texas

[wxman22]

Bears watching.

[txtwister78]

Yup as mentioned late last week models were already showing a potential uptick in severe weather beginning late this week into early/middle of next week.

Not really all that surprising that local offices are highlighting that today along with CPC outlining a slight increase in precip relative to averages for portions of the state.

Obviously the details will once again need to be ironed out day to day as these chances are conditional, however with the dryline pushing out of west TX and with the well above average temps present, you certainly can't rule out a few severe storms each day with the potential for those to be big hailers with this particular pattern in place.

Right now better odds favor central into north Texas but we shall see how this evolves in the next day or two.