TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[CrazyC83]

I think I just saw Stephanie Abrams at Lake Worth Beach...

If its not Jim Cantore in Palm Beach County then its not going there...

seriously folks this thing is over 1600+ miles away from Florida and alot can happen...

still not sold on a South Florida strike..

First lets deal with the islands.

I'm not convinced on any solution yet... recurve is definitely possible considering it's almost Mid-September(but NOT a guarantee).

I do think it will be well north of Dean and Felix's track however.

Here are my possible scenarios:

1) Catches Gabrielle's opening a bit more east - the best case scenario. It misses a direct hit on the islands and then turns between Bermuda and the US East Coast.

2) Catches Gabrielle's opening stationary - drives TD8/Ingrid into the NE Leewards and sets up a track reminiscent of Bonnie (1998) brushing the North Carolina coast.

3) Catches Gabrielle's opening to the west - drives TD8/Ingrid into the Leewards, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, then ultimately between Wilmington and Savannah, basically a track reminiscent of Hugo.

4) Makes the early turn but the ridge rebuilds - drives TD8/Ingrid into the islands as in 3 but turns west into the Bahamas, Florida Peninsula and a possible recurve on the Gulf Coast - a la Frances or Jeanne.

5) Ridge rebuilds early - sends TD8/Ingrid continuing straight into the Caribbean, perhaps into Cuba and Jamaica then into the Gulf - a la Ivan or Dennis.

6) Ridge rebuilds early and strengthens - sends TD8/Ingrid into Dean and Felix's footsteps with no real escape route.

[gatorcane]

Accuweather discussion for those interested:

Notice their graphic about the timing of the CONUS front expected to come in next week is key to this track:

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-hea ... traveler=0

[cycloneye]

CRazy,you covered all the bases.Very good summary.

[mattpetre]

I'm not convinced on any solution yet... recurve is definitely possible considering it's almost Mid-September(but NOT a guarantee).

I do think it will be well north of Dean and Felix's track however.

Here are my possible scenarios:

1) Catches Gabrielle's opening a bit more east - the best case scenario. It misses a direct hit on the islands and then turns between Bermuda and the US East Coast.

2) Catches Gabrielle's opening stationary - drives TD8/Ingrid into the NE Leewards and sets up a track reminiscent of Bonnie (1998) brushing the North Carolina coast.

3) Catches Gabrielle's opening to the west - drives TD8/Ingrid into the Leewards, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, then ultimately between Wilmington and Savannah, basically a track reminiscent of Hugo.

4) Makes the early turn but the ridge rebuilds - drives TD8/Ingrid into the islands as in 3 but turns west into the Bahamas, Florida Peninsula and a possible recurve on the Gulf Coast - a la Frances or Jeanne.

5) Ridge rebuilds early - sends TD8/Ingrid continuing straight into the Caribbean, perhaps into Cuba and Jamaica then into the Gulf - a la Ivan or Dennis.

6) Ridge rebuilds early and strengthens - sends TD8/Ingrid into Dean and Felix's footsteps with no real escape route.

I'm going with option #5

[CrazyC83]

I'm not convinced on any solution yet... recurve is definitely possible considering it's almost Mid-September(but NOT a guarantee).

I do think it will be well north of Dean and Felix's track however.

Here are my possible scenarios:

1) Catches Gabrielle's opening a bit more east - the best case scenario. It misses a direct hit on the islands and then turns between Bermuda and the US East Coast.

2) Catches Gabrielle's opening stationary - drives TD8/Ingrid into the NE Leewards and sets up a track reminiscent of Bonnie (1998) brushing the North Carolina coast.

3) Catches Gabrielle's opening to the west - drives TD8/Ingrid into the Leewards, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, then ultimately between Wilmington and Savannah, basically a track reminiscent of Hugo.

4) Makes the early turn but the ridge rebuilds - drives TD8/Ingrid into the islands as in 3 but turns west into the Bahamas, Florida Peninsula and a possible recurve on the Gulf Coast - a la Frances or Jeanne.

5) Ridge rebuilds early - sends TD8/Ingrid continuing straight into the Caribbean, perhaps into Cuba and Jamaica then into the Gulf - a la Ivan or Dennis.

6) Ridge rebuilds early and strengthens - sends TD8/Ingrid into Dean and Felix's footsteps with no real escape route.

I'm going with option #5

I'm going with 2 or 3 at this point. Hard to say what the worst case scenario is, as all except 1 could lead to a devastating storm depending on where it hits and its intensity.

[chris_fit]

I swear I can sense anxiety already on here. This thing is over a week away from effecting the US, yet people "see" landfalls in Carolinas, Florida, and GOM areas. It is absolutely impossible to predict where this will go right now, way too many variables. Heck, NHC is already off a substantial amount with their next forecast point!

Let's deal with the Humberto since he's right here right now

[CrazyC83]

I swear I can sense anxiety already on here. This thing is over a week away from effecting the US, yet people "see" landfalls in Carolinas, Florida, and GOM areas. It is absolutely impossible to predict where this will go right now, way too many variables. Heck, NHC is already off a substantial amount with their next forecast point!

Let's deal with the Humberto since he's right here right now

The difference is Humberto has little chance of becoming more than a Cat 1 (and even that is a stretch), while this has a decent chance of being a major hurricane.

[HurricaneRobert]

Isn't that a similar track to Chris (2006)? Why is it such a dead zone north of the islands? Of course I fully expect a hurricane out of this since the 'I' letter is cursed. It simply wouldn'tve worked for that thing in the GOM.

[robbielyn]

Isn't that a similar track to Chris (2006)? Why is it such a dead zone north of the islands? Of course I fully expect a hurricane out of this since the 'I' letter is cursed. It simply wouldn'tve worked for that thing in the GOM.

Maybe NHC feels that way too and hurried up and named TD9 before TD8 lol

[msbee]

There are some of us here who are very concerned about this storm, even though Humberto is already around.
Depending on the track of #8, those of us in the Northern Leewards could be affected, so I, for one, am anxiously reading every word on possible forecasts, knowing that things can and will change before the storm gets close to the islands..
CRazy gave a good summary but I don't like option # 3 or 4 very much.

Barbara

http://barcann.livejournal.com/

[robbielyn]

Accuweather discussion for those interested:

Notice their graphic about the timing of the CONUS front expected to come in next week is key to this track:

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-hea ... traveler=0

If that graphic verifies with that trough vs the ridge then it could get pulled along the eastern coast versus a fl peninsula landfall.

[windstorm99]

More on Accuweather's thinking....

[mattpetre]

Isn't that a similar track to Chris (2006)? Why is it such a dead zone north of the islands? Of course I fully expect a hurricane out of this since the 'I' letter is cursed. It simply wouldn'tve worked for that thing in the GOM.

That thing in the Gulf is quite possibly about to be a major problem for many people caught off guard though. Heck 3 days before Dean hit the Yucatan we had signs on the freeways saying to gas up and that a hurricane was forming in the gulf. I wish people had been a bit more bullish on that thing in the gulf 2 or 3 days ago.

[cycloneye]

There are some of us here who are very concerned about this storm, even though Humberto is already around.
Depending on the track of #8, those of us in the Northern Leewards could be affected, so I, for one, am anxiously reading every word on possible forecasts, knowing that things can and will change before the storm gets close to the islands..
CRazy gave a good summary but I don't like option # 3 or 4 very much.

Barbara

http://barcann.livejournal.com/

Barbara.you can post at the threat thread at the top of forum.

[gtsmith]

My anxiety/concern/trepidation stems from the fact that on Saturday I leave (South East Florida) my wife and mother in law for 10 days and am going to New England. I am really concerned about leaving them alone if this storm threatens the West Palm area. I guess I can always come back next week if it indeed does begin to threaten my area (it''l cost me money in rescheduling my airline and my rental car is non refundable - but it's just money)...yeesh...I'll be the only one trying to get into an area that may be threatened

[JonathanBelles]

More on Accuweather's thinking....

LOL. I might agree with the track, but not the intensity.

[CrazyC83]

Isn't that a similar track to Chris (2006)? Why is it such a dead zone north of the islands? Of course I fully expect a hurricane out of this since the 'I' letter is cursed. It simply wouldn'tve worked for that thing in the GOM.

That thing in the Gulf is quite possibly about to be a major problem for many people caught off guard though. Heck 3 days before Dean hit the Yucatan we had signs on the freeways saying to gas up and that a hurricane was forming in the gulf. I wish people had been a bit more bullish on that thing in the gulf 2 or 3 days ago.

That's why you should be well-prepared at all times during hurricane season, and especially at the peak of hurricane season. Things can develop in a hurry...

[chris_fit]

My anxiety/concern/trepidation stems from the fact that on Saturday I leave (South East Florida) my wife and mother in law for 10 days and am going to New England. I am really concerned about leaving them alone if this storm threatens the West Palm area. I guess I can always come back next week if it indeed does begin to threaten my area (it''l cost me money in rescheduling my airline and my rental car is non refundable - but it's just money)...yeesh...I'll be the only one trying to get into an area that may be threatened

Usually in natural disasters such as hurricanes, companies will work with you to resched/cancel/etc your plans at no cost.

[ConvergenceZone]

This better not happen...

Well, if that accuweather forecast verifies, then Florida looks like their recent luck may have run out....we'll see....

[robbielyn]

My anxiety/concern/trepidation stems from the fact that on Saturday I leave (South East Florida) my wife and mother in law for 10 days and am going to New England. I am really concerned about leaving them alone if this storm threatens the West Palm area. I guess I can always come back next week if it indeed does begin to threaten my area (it''l cost me money in rescheduling my airline and my rental car is non refundable - but it's just money)...yeesh...I'll be the only one trying to get into an area that may be threatened

Could they possibly stay with friends or family somewhere within the state or ga or alabama or something where you wouldn't have to worry so much? It is always good to have an escape route in place should a storm threaten