Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

This is the Spring Hydrologic outlook for Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands. It looks like things are overall in a normal status.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
10:08 AM AST THU MAR 1 2012

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS INDICATES A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR ALL AREAS...

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
STREAMFLOW MEASURED BY THE USGS GAGING NETWORK SHOWS MOST
LOCATIONS RUNNING IN THE 25 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE...WITH
A FEW LOCALIZED OUTLIERS OF BOTH GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT OF
NORMAL AND BELOW 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THERE IS NO DISTINGUISHABLE
PATTERN BASED ON THE GEOGRAPHIC LOCATIONS OF THE GAGES.

PAST PRECIPITATION...
MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS...THE YEAR TO DATE TOTALS ARE RUNNING
NEAR NORMAL FOR ALL OF THE ISLANDS. FOR PUERTO RICO...THE TOTALS ARE
MOSTLY IN THE 101 TO 146 PERCENT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CLOSER TO 74 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE
TOTALS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

SOIL MOISTURE...
THIS IS THE END OF THE DRY SEASON FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...SO DRY SOILS ARE EXPECTED...AND GIVEN A NORMAL
SPRING TRANSITIONAL PERIOD...THE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS USUALLY
IMPROVE WITH AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL IN APRIL AND MAY. NONE OF OUR
REGIONS CURRENTLY HAVE ANY DROUGHT DESIGNATIONS IN THE U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR. AS EXPECTED WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS...THE FIRE
WEATHER SEASON IS IN FULL SWING...AND AT ITS PEAK...WITH WELL OVER
650 FIRES REPORTED AND OVER 3000 ACRES BURNED THUS FAR...DURING
THIS FIRE SEASON IN PUERTO RICO. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
THREAT CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO WHERE...
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...DRIEST SOILS...MOST
COMBUSTIBLE FUELS...AND THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
CONCENTRATED.

RESERVOIRS...
BASED ON USGS GAGING SITES...A SAMPLE OF A FEW OF THE MAJOR
RESERVOIRS ACROSS PUERTO RICO SHOW THAT CURRENT LEVELS DO NOT
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LAGO PATILLAS IS
CURRENTLY AT 218.63 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 222 FEET.
LAGO LOIZA IS CURRENTLY 134.04 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS
132.00 AND LAGO LA PLATA IS CURRENTLY 169.89...NORMAL OPERATIONAL
LEVEL IS 155. OVERALL...MOST OF THE LAKES ARE CLOSE TO THEIR NORMAL
OPERATIONAL LEVELS.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORMAL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF MARCH WHICH IS THE LAST MONTH OF THE DRY
SEASON ACROSS THE ISLANDS...AND TREND TOWARDS A WETTER PERIOD
DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL WHICH IS GENERALLY THE TRANSITIONAL
MONTH TO THE WET SEASON. THE EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BEST DETERMINE THE SPRING FLOOD CATEGORIES ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS...THE CURRENT FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS NORMAL.

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

[Macrocane]

Hello! These are the temperatures for the last day of February in Central America.

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Honduras and Panama. Near normal in El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Guatemala.

Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.5°C (56.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.3°C (37.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 7.7°C (45.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.3°C (37.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.7°C (76.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.6°C (58.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.6°C (79.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.9°C (66.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.5°C (101.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.4°C (77.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 11.8°C (53.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.1°C (93.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.9°C (89.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.6°C (67.3°F)

[cycloneye]

It looks like a rather wet period that was not expected will occur on Friday and Saturday in the Eastern Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST THU MAR 1 2012

.UPDATE...LATEST SOUNDING SHOWS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED YET A LITTLE
MORE...BUT REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH 12 KFT. LITTLE CHANGE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER LAST 24 HOURS. NEXT MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS
WEAK BUT WILL COME AROUND 10-12Z FOR PUERTO RICO. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WERE PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS AS OF
02/02Z AND ARE MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWED A WAVE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES MOVING INTO THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM THE EAST THIS EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS THIS BUT PULLS
THE PEAK OF THE WAVE DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS MOISTURE IN AMOUNTS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
FOR THE LAST 36 HOURS SHOULD CONTINUE ANOTHER 48 HOURS BEFORE A
MORE NOTICEABLE BAND OF DRIER AIR ENTERS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AT 04/00Z. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THURSDAY
HOWEVER SINCE WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND THE AXIS OF THE JET WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND TO THE EAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING A WIND SURGE AT 850 MB ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS THEN. THIS WILL
BOOST SURFACE WINDS SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME -SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY
TRADES WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS THRU FRI MORNING. MVFR CONDS ARE
PSBL ACROSS TJMZ BTWN 02/18Z-22Z DUE TO CONVECTION THAT WILL BE
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND VCSH CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJPS.
02/00Z AT TJSJ INDICATED LLVL WINDS FM THE E TO NE AT 10-20 KTS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The trade winds will increase in speed early next week in the Eastern Caribbean,increasing the swells and fast moving showers will be the rule.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST FRI MAR 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THE AXIS OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...HAD BEGUN TO LIFT EAST NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED TO FILL..AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WHICH HAD EARLIER MOVED THROUGH THE BASE OF
TROUGH...WAS NOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THIS PATTERN
EXPECT MORE OF A CONVERGENT PATTERN TO GRADUALLY SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EAST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST...AS A COLD FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF
THE UNITED STATES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO ONCE AGAIN TIGHTEN THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONSEQUENTLY INCREASE THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLIGHTLY RELAX ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AS THE DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH RIDGE NORTH
OF THE AREA RETROGRESSES FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF LOCAL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES TO PREVAIL...AND CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SHALLOW
PATCHES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORESEE
LESSER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INFLUENCE TODAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AROUND TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN SOME AREAS. DECIDED HOWEVER TO HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...BUT THERE MAY BE STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

OVER THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS...EXPECT ONLY PASSING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
MAINLY ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS... FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN ISOLATED
AREAS OVER SOME OF THE ISLANDS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 02/15. HOWEVER...SOME -SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING AFFECTING
TISX..TIST AND TJSJ WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE PSBL ACROSS TJMZ BTW 02/18Z-22Z DUE TO CONVECTION
THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND VCSH CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND
TJPS. TJSJ 02/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
AT 10-20 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 15K FEET...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 73 / 30 40 30 30
STT 84 74 84 75 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. It looks like the weekend will be good weatherwise in the NE Caribbean,except for a few passing showers that the trade winds move rapidly and the usual afternoon diurnal heating activity in interior and Western Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
206 PM AST FRI MAR 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE GRADUALLY BECOMING THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS
AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX.
WINDS GENERALLY 15-20 KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING
THE DAY AND LIGHT/VRB AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
7 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
FOREESABLE FUTURE WITH WINDS 16 TO 21 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING
30 MPH. MAXT NEAR 90F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL RESULT IN
MIN_RH VALUES IN THE MID 40S. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTH COASTAL AND SRN SLOPES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TO
CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL MORE THAN
OFFSET THE SOMEWHAT STABLE CONDITIONS. BOTTOMLINE...VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SRN SLOPES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 72 81 / 20 20 30 20
STT 74 85 74 85 / 20 20 30 20

[Macrocane]

Hi! Minimum temperatures started cool in most of Central America, but maximum temperatures started very warm. These are the observations for March 1 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize and Nicaragua. Near normal in Panama and Honduras. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, El Salvador and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.4°C (56.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -1.0°C (30.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 6.7°C (44.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.4°C (36.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.2°C (57.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in Honduras and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.3°C (82.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.9°C (89.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.6°C (72.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.3°C (99.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.7°C (78.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.0°C (93.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.6°C (67.3°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1029 PM AST FRI MAR 2 2012

.UPDATE...MOISTURE IS ALMOST AS GOOD AS IT WAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
1.51 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 03/00Z SOUNDING. WINDS
ARE EASTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 14 KFT AND THE MOIST LAYER
EXTENDS UP THROUGH 10 KFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE BRISKLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING AND THE MIMIC PRODUCT
SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS STILL BETTER MOISTURE UPSTREAM. THE GFS DID
WELL IN DEPICTING THE APPROACHING MOISTURE WAVE OVER AND JUST EAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND HOW IT WOULD FADE FROM THE NORTH AS IT
APPROACHED...BUT THERE IS STILL BETTER MOISTURE UPSTREAM FROM OUR
AREA AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE WINDWARD SHORES OF PUERTO RICO AND AROUND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SHOWERS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST HAVE
MOVED OFFSHORE AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WEST AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF
SITES...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LUQUILLO RANGE. -SHRA WILL REACH THE ISLANDS TONIGHT THRU
03/12Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL ACROSS TJMZ BTWN 03 /18Z- 22Z
IN SHRA. ALSO... MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR DURING THE AFTERNOON. TJSJ 03/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT 10-25 KTS FROM THE SFC
TO FL150.

&&

.MARINE...OUTLOOK IN ATLANTIC WATERS IS FOR GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SEAS NOW THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA AND A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY AND KEEP STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA. SEAS IN
THE CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE NOW THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MUCH THE SAME REASONS.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Same weather pattern for NE Caribbean will prevail today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST SAT MAR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE FA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WILL INDUCE A
FAIRLY STABLE AND A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH A MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...AS OCCURRED IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL PROMOTE THE GENERATION OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE IN THE RANGE OF
1.25-1.50 INCHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE PWAT VALUES DO
NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING DEPICTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...JUST ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FEW
OF THEM AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES DURG
NXT 24 HRS. FEW-ISOLD PASSING TRADE WIND SHRA WITH PDS OF SCT-BKN
L/LVL CLDS BTW 020-070K FT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND
REACH THE ISLANDS AT LEAST TIL 03/14Z. FM 03/18-03/22Z TEMPO MVFR
CONDS PSBL MAINLY ACROSS TJMZ IN AFTN SHRA. ALSO..MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS ALSO PSBL ALONG THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EARLIER TJSJ 03/00Z SOUNDING AS WELL AS FCST
SOUNDING SUGGESTS CONTD EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WND FLOW BTW 10-25 KTS TO
PERSIST FM SFC-200K FT.

&&

.MARINE...OUTLOOK IN ATLANTIC WATERS IS FOR GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SEAS TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONTINUED MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RIDGE NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL ENTER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND KEEP STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
OVER THE AREA. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY REMAINING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXPECTED MAXT NEAR 90F AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...WILL RESULT IN MIN_RH VALUES IN THE
MID 40S. LIMITED PCPN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL AND
SOUTHERN SLOPES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE FEATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH VERY DRY FUELS...WILL PROMOTE A VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 85 72 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 74 85 74 / 20 30 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST SAT MAR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW
AND HOLD THROUGH TUE THEN BREAK DOWN AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. AT THE SFC...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE ATLC MID WEEK BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN OVR THE NEXT
12-24 HRS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS TO KEEP
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM OVR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
SUBSIDENCE CAP WEAKENS MID WEEK AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE CARIB. THIS TO ALLOW FOR
BETTER INSTABILITY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
PW IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. ALSO...STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS
DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NW ATLC WILL PREVENT SEA
BREEZE FORMATION/CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WEST COAST. A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE ACROSS ERN NOAM LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INDUCE AN
INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN. THIS TO
ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND VEER TO SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO REACH THE AREA NEXT SUN MAR 11.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT NEXT THREE DAYS BUT START TO PICK UP TUE.
STRONG WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT EXPECTED WED-THU.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH MON BUT START INCREASING AGAIN ON
TUE. HAVE DROPPED SCA AS SEAS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE
WITH 15-20 KT WINDS THROUGH TUE. SCA LIKELY WED-THU WITH STRONG
TRADES 22+KT AND SEAS 7-9 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WILL PRECONDITION FUELS AND INCREASE
PROBABILITY OF IGNITION IN OTHER AREAS WHICH HAVEN`T HAD ANY
RECENT FIRES. UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MID WEEK WITH STRENGTHENING
WINDS AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS/STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH SLOPES GIVEN HOW DRY FUELS ARE OUT
THERE RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 83 / 20 20 20 20
STT 76 84 76 84 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

COLDEST TEMPERATURE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SINCE DECEMBER 2010

Very cool minimum temperatures were registered yesterday in some locations in Central America, Quetzaltenango experienced its hardest freeze in over a year . The maximum temperatures were pretty warm in other locations.

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize and Nicaragua. Near normal in El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala and Honduras.

Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.7°C (56.7°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -4.0°C (24.8°F) COLDEST SINCE DECEMBER 16 2010!
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 7.6°C (45.7°F)
Los Naranjos, El Salvador 5.0°C (41.0°C) Coldest temperature in El Salvador since January 6 2012
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 5°C (41°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 13.9°C (57.0°F) Coldest since January 29 2012
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.4°C (39.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.7°C (76.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.9°C (57.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Costa Rica. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and Panama. Cooler than normal in El Salvador and Nicaragua.

Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.4°C (72.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.3°C (99.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 27°C (81°F) WARMEST SINCE APRIL 28 2011
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29°C (84°F) Warmest since September 28 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 36.2°C (97.2°F) WARMEST SINCE APRL 30 2011
Panama city, Panama 33.7°C (92.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.3°C (72.1°F)

[cycloneye]

National Hurricane Center Caribbean-Central America Hurricane Preparedness Tour

Barbara,they will visit St Maarten and BZSTORM,they will stop close to your location,so if you have the chance to go,do it because is a great experience and you learn new things.I will go when they stop on the 17th in Isla Grande airport in San Juan.

March 12, 11:30 a.m. to 3 p.m. – Campeche Intl. Airport, Campeche, Mexico
March 13, 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. – Chetumal Intl. Airport, Chetumal, Mexico
March 14, noon to 3 p.m. – Limon Intl. Airport, Limon, Costa Rica
March 15, 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. – Juan Santa Maria Intl. Airport, San Jose, Costa Rica
March 16, 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. – Princess Juliana Intl. Airport, San Maartin
March 17, 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. – Isla Grande Airport, San Juan, Puerto Rico

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... etour.html

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED SEABOARD LATE
TUESDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO
INDUCE A FAIRLY STABLE AND A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH A
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS OCCURRED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE
EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL PROMOTE THE
GENERATION OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. SOME
CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PWAT VALUES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE RANGE OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE PWAT VALUES DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK INDUCING AN INCREASE IN THE TRADES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING DEPICTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FEW OF THEM ALSO AFFECTED
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS BTW 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURG PD. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXPECTED MAXT NEAR 90F AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL RESULT IN MIN_RH VALUES IN THE MID 40S.
THESE FEATURES IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DRY FUELS AND MIXING
HEIGHTS BELOW 5000 FEET WILL BE THE MAIN FACTORS IN VERY HIGH WILD
FIRE DANGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL SLOPES...WHERE VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 83 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 84 76 84 76 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TUE THEN BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE CNTRL
CARIBBEAN. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WRN ATLC WED
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM NEXT TWO DAYS WITH
VERY WARM CONDITIONS. CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN WED BUT WINDS INCREASE
AT THE SAME TIME LIMITING SEA BREEZE FORMATION/CONVERGENCE. THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WED-
SAT BUT MOISTURE STILL LIMITED. BETTER INSTABILITY IS FCST TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
TROUGH. A DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN FROM THE ESE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX. WINDS
15-20 KT INCREASING TO 20+KT WED.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 6-8 FT TUE NIGHT AS WINDS
INCREASE TO OVER 22 KNOTS. NORTH SWELLS ALSO FCST TO IMPACT THE
WATERS THU AND FRI.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO A
MINIMUM MON AND TUE WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND
STABLE AIR. POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MID WEEK DUE TO INCREASING WINDS...INSTABILITY AND
EXTREMELY DRY FUELS. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN
THE WEEK...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEPER WITH TIME AND TOO
MANY FVRBL FACTORS TO ENHANCE FIRE THREAT THAT WILL OFFSET THE
RELATIVELY MOISTER CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 74 83 / 20 20 20 20
STT 76 85 76 85 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A variable week is instored for PR with a mix of sun with scattered showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST MON MAR 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA WILL FLATTEN OUT AS A TROUGH APPROACHES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. A SECOND TROUGH WILL PASS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL LIFT OVER A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CAUSING IT TO SHIFT
WEST TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE
UNITED STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL RE-
FORM OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
EXITS NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL
COME WITHIN 200 MILES OF THE NORTH SHORES OF PUERTO RICO ON
FRIDAY WHILE FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF CUBA AS OF 05/0815Z. THIS IS CAUSING
EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S
VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR...A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH A WIND SURGE OF UP TO 35 MPH AT 850
MB. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE IN EAST NORTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME SHOWERS FROM THE EAST SHOULD ARRIVE IN PUERTO
RICO`S WESTERN PORTION TODAY IN TIME FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. EASTERLY WINDS BTW 5 AND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
MORNING...INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 05/14Z.
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJSJ AFTER
05/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41043 FELL TO BELOW 7 FEET OVERNIGHT AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS RANGE UNTIL SWELL FROM THE NORTH
ARRIVE FROM A STRONG LOW MIGRATING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST IN THE
MID LATITUDES. PEAK SWELL WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND MAY REACH UP TO 9 FEET DUE TO STRONG LOW PRESSURE SPINNING UP
IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 83 74 / 30 30 30 30
STT 84 74 85 74 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST MON MAR 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTED THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SOME SOWERS NOTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
18G27KT TUE INCREASING TO 22G32KT WED. WINDS SLOWER AT JPS DUE TO
REDUCTION DUE TO SEA BREEZE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ALL OF THIS WEEK SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE...USVI...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND NW PR DUE TO
STRONG WINDS...DRY FUELS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. FIRE DANGER IS PARTICULARLY HIGHEST ON WED DUE TO
STRONG WINDS. ONLY THING THAT COULD TEMPER THE FIRE RISK SOMEWHAT
WED IS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...TOO MANY FACTORS ENHANCING THE FIRE
RISK THAT WILL OFFSET THE NEGATIVE FACTORS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 74 83 / 30 30 30 30
STT 74 84 74 84 / 30 30 30 30

[Macrocane]

EXTREMELY HOT TEMPERATURES REGISTERED ON MARCH 4 IN CENTRAL AMERICA

March, April and May are the months with the warmest maximum temperatures in Central America, yesterday was a very hot day for most of the region and only the high and mountainous areas had cool temperatures, thanfully a cold front gave us a relief today. These are the observations for Sunday March 4 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Near normal in Belize and Honduras.

Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.3°C (41.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.3°C (52.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (32°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.5°C (63.5°F) Warmest since December 31 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.9°C (42.6°F) Warmest since February 4
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.0°C (57.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua. Near normal in El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala.

Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F) Warmest since November 17 2011
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 27.4°C (81.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.6°C (88.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 15.0°C (59.0°F) Coldest since January 4 2012
San Miguel, El Salvador 39.5°C (103.1°F) HOTTEST SINCE MAY 6 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 40°C (104°F) HOTTEST SINCE MAY 6 2011
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F) HOTTEST SINCE MAY 12 2011
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F) Warmest since November 4 2011
San Jose, Costa Rica 28°C (82°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.3°C (59.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 36.7°C (98.1°F) WARMEST SINCE APRIL 2011
Panama city, Panama 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.4°C (74.1°F) Warmest since December 10 2011

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Windy conditions and fast moving showers will be the rule for the next couple of days in PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
619 AM AST TUE MAR 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER THE AREA EXTENDS
NORTHEAST...BUT AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL MOVE IT OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER HISPANIOLA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TROUGH PASSAGES IN THE
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT ONLY THE TAIL WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL
FADE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. TROUGHINESS OVER HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY
WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...ONE OF THE STRONGEST HIGH PRESSURES THIS YEAR
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS NOW HUNG OVER
CENTRAL CUBA AND WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS SAME FRONT WILL SAG TO WITHIN 350 MILES TO OUR NORTH ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL COME NO CLOSER. HOWEVER...AREAS OF MOISTURE IN
THE WARM AIR TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO US THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS HAVE INCREASED ALL
NIGHT AS A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AT AROUND 20
KNOTS. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO CROSSED INLAND ACROSS EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS FELL IN SAINT CROIX OVERNIGHT AND
TOUCHED THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS ALSO...THOUGH NONE WAS
MEASURED IN CHARLOTTE AMALIE. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE
TENTH INCH.

MODELS SHOW LOCAL WINDS FAIRLY WELL BUT DO NOT AGREE AT ALL ON
THE MOISTURE...WITH WIDELY FLUCTUATING VALUES...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS STRONG CONVERGENCE AT 700 MB SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND WEST OF SAINT CROIX...BUT THE NAM BRINGS IT MUCH
CLOSER. ALSO THE GFS SHOWS BANDS OF MOISTURE BECOMING ORIENTED
MORE WEST SOUTHWEST-EAST NORTHEAST...WHILE THE NAM BEGINS
PRODUCING BULLS EYES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AS HIGH AS 1.6 INCHES
ON A BACKGROUND OF DRIER AIR AS LOW AS .80 INCHES. THE MIMIC
PRODUCT HAS BEEN MOVING PATCHES OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA
REGULARLY AND A LOOK UPSTREAM SUGGESTS THAT THE LONG BAND OF THE
GFS COULD BE EXPECTED...HENCE HAVE USED THE GFS AS A FIRST GUESS.
THE PRNMM SEEMS TO SEE THE PRECIPITATION MUCH BETTER FOR US AND
HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. HENCE SHOWERS
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AND FORM OVER WESTERN
PUERTO RICO AROUND MAYAGUEZ AND HORMIGUEROS AND OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE MOVES IN
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN BY MIDNIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND BEFORE 6 AM AST OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO. WET WEATHER WOULD THEN SPREAD
OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED FAST MOVING
SHOWERS CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SPREADING WEST
EACH AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE ON
FRIDAY...BUT GOOD CHANCES STILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ONE OF THE STRONGEST HIGHS THIS YEAR IS SET
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A
PRESSURE OF 1040 TO 1039 MB TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF WIND OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOME
PASSES WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH DURING THAT
TIME.

AFTER FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AND THE WEATHER PATTERN
BECOMES DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL OF THE LATE WINTER SEASON HERE IN
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK
IN THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BTW 5 AND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING UP TO 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 06/14Z. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF TJSJ...TJPS...AND TJMZ AFTER 06/16Z. MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT AFT 07/06Z. STRONG
TURBULENCE AT LOWER LEVELS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF MOUNTAINS AND
GUSTY SFC WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AFT 07/08Z.


&&

.MARINE...INCREASING WINDS WILL GENERATE INCREASINGLY CHOPPY SEAS
IN THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE FURTHER IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTS THERE COULD REACH GALE
FORCE. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY...BUT CHOPPY AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY IN ALL BUT THE
LEEWARD INNER WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF
ALMOST ALL TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THIS WILL LEAVE
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WITH DRY FUELS.
WHERE NO RAIN HAS FALLEN...FIRES THAT DO IGNITE WILL BE VERY
DIFFICULT TO CONTROL DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...HENCE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
WILL CONTINUE THERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY...SOME CLOUD COVER AND
MIXING HEIGHTS GENERALLY UNDER 4 KFT WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 82 74 / 30 60 60 40
STT 84 74 84 73 / 30 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Wind Advisory issued for Puerto Rico/USVI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
328 PM AST TUE MAR 6 2012

...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT..

PRZ001>010-012-013-VIZ001-002-070730-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.WI.Y.0002.120307T0600Z-120308T0700Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
328 PM AST TUE MAR 6 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM AST
THURSDAY...

A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RESULTANT TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT...A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EXPOSED AREAS.

* TIMING...THIS STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE STRONGEST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SOME BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES...AND SOME SMALL TREES
BLOWN OVER. MINOR WINDS DAMAGE POSSIBLE...PRIMARLY TO WEAKENED
TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR
GREATER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS OR LAWN FURNITURE. TRUCKS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS PASSES.