Florida Weather

[NDG]

Even at 24 hours, the CMC still thinks 30sF will be widespread across the peninsula:

https://s23.postimg.org/4s5uxkluj/gem_T2m_seus_5.png

lol. Unless the sky is clear as can be, it won't be that dramatic IMO

It is still being a little too cold bias by a few degrees IMO. If anything it has been trending warmer on each run for tomorrow morning during the past few days when just 3 days ago it was showing widespread 20s for the FL Peninsula, lol.
GFS MOS guidance looks good to me, which shows a lot of rural across interior central and even northern S FL getting into the upper 30s with widespread frost.

[psyclone]

Frost advisories are out for much of central florida (all of the Melbourne CWA except Martin county) and a big chunk of the Tampa bay CWA away from the coast as a crisp, beautiful day makes way for a clear, cold night. a warming trend (a slow one) commences with sunrise tomorrow. Longer term, the early part of February is looking good for freeze avoidance for the peninsula, after which the magic of climo really starts working in our favor WRT freezes.

[gatorcane]

49F at PIE (St Pete-Clearwater airport) already with a low of 49F forecasted, NWS should lower the forecast temps.

Curiously, TPA (Tampa International airport) is 6 degrees warmer at 55F.

[psyclone]

That Tamp ob does seem warm. it actually matches the ob @ Whitted. it sure feels cold. Nevertheless, the frost will be confined to the way outlying areas. Brooksville is down to 43 with a dewpoint of 34 so some frost up that way is a good bet.

[AdamFirst]

Fort Pierce Airport is already down to 42 degrees just after 9 PM. My outdoor thermometer is reading 50 degrees and falling quickly.

[TheStormExpert]

I believe both the GFS and Euro have been warm biased this winter with each cold front. IMO the GFS though has been especially warm biased with temperatures with every significant cold we've had this season when in reality it ends up being 4-8 degrees colder in my locale.

[psyclone]

that's interesting and a contrast from prior years when the cold was routinely over estimated. good thing we're not dealing with legit cold.

[TheStormExpert]

that's interesting and a contrast from prior years when the cold was routinely over estimated. good thing we're not dealing with legit cold.

So true! I enjoy the cool/cold weather especially since it's hot and humid the majority of the year. But I would never want to see a repeat of the winter months of 2010.

[NDG]

I believe both the GFS and Euro have been warm biased this winter with each cold front. IMO the GFS though has been especially warm biased with temperatures with every significant cold we've had this season when in reality it ends up being 4-8 degrees colder in my locale.

True but only in the short term of its raw output. The GFS has been cold bias in its medium to long range forecast with forecasting numerous freezing temps for central FL that never materialized.
In the short term like for this morning is always good to go with the GFS MOS guidance which did an ok job for this morning, though areas away from body of water where the winds totally collapsed the temps dropped lower than what MOS guidance forecasted like for example at the Orlando Int'l airport where it is currently 38 degrees & calm winds, with my locale sitting at 41 degrees which was forecasted to be colder than the airport.

[NDG]

I woke up to no frost at all in my neighborhood, I was expecting light frost at least on the rooftops.

[northjaxpro]

It got down to 36 degrees here this morning. We escaped the freeze mark here at my house. There was very light frost, mostly on the top of my rooftop of the house and of my car.. Cecil Commerce , the cold drainage spot here in Duval County on Jacksonville's westside, got down to 32 degrees, which appears to be the only spot where it got to the freeze mark this morning.

EDIT: Palatka reported 32 degrees this morning as well. I do not see any other reporting stations across Northeast Florida that reached the freeze mark.

[Patrick99]

It's been pretty much as expected in Miami. Mid-upper 50s eastern parts of the metro, low 50s west. I'll go ahead and wager that this will essentially be it for us in terms of "significant" cool weather. Looks like a frontal passage around 2/9-2/11, but nothing noteworthy.

[gatorcane]

It's been pretty much as expected in Miami. Mid-upper 50s eastern parts of the metro, low 50s west. I'll go ahead and wager that this will essentially be it for us in terms of "significant" cool weather. Looks like a frontal passage around 2/9-2/11, but nothing noteworthy.

Last couple of runs of the GFS have trended much colder. Latest 12Z run shows two nights of mid 30s down into Central Florida, but as we know, GFS could be overdoing things.

[gatorcane]

Well here we go again. You would think I would learn my lesson by now!

[northjaxpro]

The GFS runs indeed have trended colder since yesterday. This is still 10 days out and a decent chance that this may change a couple of more times. But, it does at least look like we will have at least one more pretty decent shot of cool air in our region by end of next week (2/9 - 2/11-17). We still have +PNA for now, although long range indications are pointing toward West Coast ridging starting to collapse by the middle of February.

500mb heights are quite low on the latest runs out 300 hours as the upper level trough sharpens pretty good across the Eastern CONUS. We should have a better idea just how cold the second weekend of February may get in this area in the next 3-4 days of model runs.

[psyclone]

we're in a for a week of simply superb weather. Enjoy

[chaser1]

Looks to me that the later we go out in time, the more and more pronounced the 500mb ridge out West becomes. GFS has been pretty locked in on maintaining an overall longwave trough over the E. Conus while really piling up that cold air between Hudson Bay and areas North of Nova Scotia. Naturally here in Florida, it gets harder and harder to experience damaging frost and freeze events as the days become slowly longer and snowpack over the Eastern and Central US recede. That said, id venture to guess that if the mid to long range GFS were to verify that a greater and more prolonged threat of frost damage will exist for much of Florida and possibly into colder locations of S. Florida near and south of Lake 'O. Appears to me that it is quite possible that freezing temps will likely be far more widespread throughout N. Florida and inland areas west and north of the I-4 corridor, than this past air mass brought with it. Potential event timing still looking like around Feb. 9-12 with yet another re-amplification of the 500mb pattern bringing more cold temps to Florida around the 15th. The upper air support along with what appears to be an even further northerly tap of cold air advection around Feb. 10-12 might just chase a lot of Florida snow-birds to the W. U.S. LOL. I think this will largely be the established overall pattern over the CONUS through much of Feb. and into early to middle March.

FWIW, the most recent Arctic Oscillation & Polar Vortex forecast update seem to bear out such a cold scenario for the Eastern U.S. and Florida likely included (link below)

https://www.aer.com/science-research/cl ... scillation

[northjaxpro]

Well, if the PNA can stay positive for a little while longer, then yes I can see a pattern that potentially could lock in for much colder temperatures for much of the Eastern CONUS for February. The problem is we haven't had any sustained possible PNA pattern all winter. PNA has been negative mostly this winter, which has given the West, especially the Pacific NW, among one of the coldest and snowey winters in recent memory.. So, it will be interesting to see if the tleconnections can hold favorable for colder weather to impact the Deep South and give us some semblence of winter weather for February.

But, yes most definitely we will get it appears a decent dump of polar air to drop south next weekend February 9-11.

So, a warm up next week of temps possibly reaching the low 80s here in Jax by middle of next week, before the next cold air snap . The PNA should stay positive at least up to about mid- February. This should allow at least one more potentially decent cold shot to come toward Florida the next 10 days.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The AO is progged to go negative around then but I've seen that before. If it happens and maybe the NAO goes a little bit negative. Then I'd say a cool shot for down here and cold for north fl.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml

[psyclone]

I'd bet on a transient shot of cool at best... and the CPC outlooks which average out warm for the timeframe in question would seem to bear that out. While it's too soon to declare victory, Winter and it's associated freeze season are getting wobbly.