ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Ivanhater]

BTW, Ida is nearly where she was supposed to be tomorrow. The hurricane hunters schedule for tomorrow reflects this.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON IDA FOR 05/1800Z AND
06/0600Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/0845Z

[cycloneye]

...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.7N 83.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

[deltadog03]

Looks like center is being tucked underneath that deeper convection. I fully expect this to ramp up quickly. I would give it a great chance at cane status before shear takes over.

[cycloneye]

Look at the bend to the right at the end as extratropical.

[Decomdoug]

Cone shifting right again

[Derek Ortt]

I have a different take on the intensity

This is probably going to be an all or nothing. Either a significant hurricane that the shear enhances favorably as it did Wilma, or it will decouple and never make landfall

[Sanibel]

Center already offshore. Sharp eye will see hook echo and red IR burst displaced by shear from surface center:

[ozonepete]

Note where the heavier convection is developing - NW-NNW of the center. One general TC rule of thumb is that "the center follows the convection". That would support the current NNW forecast track.

I buy that. Although it's moved a little east of where they forecasted it, I've still always expected it to go NNW soon, just maybe not as much as they have it.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like center is being tucked underneath that deeper convection. I fully expect this to ramp up quickly. I would give it a great chance at cane status before shear takes over.

for sure .. once we get the west and SW inflow over water it should start to fire pretty quickly..

[Ivanhater]

THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY COMPLEX IN THE LONG
RANGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW IDA WILL INTERACT WITH
THAT TROUGH. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...THEN TURNING EASTWARD OR EVEN
SOUTH OF EAST. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT IDA WILL LIKELY BE
TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME...AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE QUITE VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TRANSITION.
THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AT THE LONG RANGE...BUT
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.

Exactly what I've been thinking

[gatorcane]

It's ramping up pretty quickly now that it is over water....pretty amazing how that convection is blowing up now around the center.

[Sanibel]

Center already offshore. Sharp eye will see hook echo and red IR burst displaced by shear from surface center:

[deltadog03]

I like the overall track with IDA from NHC, however I dissagree with the timing. The 500mb flow should allow for a fairly quick move into the GOM. Obviously if it slows down it maybe never make landfall anywhere, however seeing that its already moving faster then there forecast from this morning, I think we could easily see this making landfall near the big bend.

[HURAKAN]

Past track

[Aric Dunn]

Center already offshore. Sharp eye will see hook echo and red IR burst displaced by shear from surface center:

Not sure how many times too say it and not picky on you sanibel .. but you cannot use IR satellite to locate a center, unless there is eye with a hurricane. some form of visible must be used. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[tolakram]

[Sanibel]

Not sure how many times too say it and not picky on you sanibel .. but you cannot use IR satellite to locate a center, unless there is eye with a hurricane. some form of visible must be used. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

Who said I used IR? I used visible and posted IR to show the convection presentation/relationship and shear indication. All moot in a few hours.

The storm is always the best indicator. If Ida still has some RI juice it will wrap the south side and burst!

[srainhoutx]

Looking at the big picture you can see all the "players".
1. Upper Low near Baja
2. BoC area of disturbed Weather
3. Ida moving N heading into the S GOM
4. Cold Font heading SE from the Pacific NW

All equal a forecasting mess IMHO

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

[CourierPR]

I like the overall track with IDA from NHC, however I dissagree with the timing. The 500mb flow should allow for a fairly quick move into the GOM. Obviously if it slows down it maybe never make landfall anywhere, however seeing that its already moving faster then there forecast from this morning, I think we could easily see this making landfall near the big bend.

I think Ida may impact farther south on the peninsula.

[Sanibel]

If I were to ignore shear Ida's shape and look looks like a storm about to go off...